Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 11, 2015

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Ravens 16, Rams 13
The Rams sat Nick Foles for Case Keenum this week, but had similar results, which had a similar impact on the fantasy numbers of the Rams’ already small amount of relevant fantasy players. We can give up on this receiving game completely. Yes, Tavon Austin is a Top-30 receiver in fantasy, but the big outbursts just don’t come often enough to be worth starting, especially with the bye weeks over.

Todd Gurley is being dragged down by the horrible quarterback play, but still has managed to find the end zone, like he did this week. He also lost a fumble, one of the four this overly inept offense lost, and otherwise didn’t get much going with a depleted offensive line and the defense not needing to worry about Keenum beating them through the air. His schedule isn’t going to help him out much either, with Cincinnati, Arizona, Detroit, Tampa Bay and Seattle to finish the fantasy season. I could see trying to get something for him in a trade, but he’s still good enough to overcome his team’s inabilities, so don’t throw him out with the bath water.

The Ravens lost Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett in this game. Add in Steve Smith Jr.’s season ending injury a few weeks ago and we have a documented curse on our hands. Flacco had not played well this year, but we’ll start to appreciate him once Matt Schaub starts chucking the rock at opposing defensive backs.

Schaub hurts Kamar Aiken and Crockett Gillmore, who were the only two reliable receivers on the team, but both are underneath, possession receivers, which will be where Schaub probably will do most of his work. They lose value, but they are still startable.

The loss of Forsett does give us a waiver-wire claim in Javorius Allen, who hasn’t shown much when he’s gotten the ball, but has shown enough ability, both in the rushing and receiving game, to be worthwhile as a volume player. His upside isn’t great, but he did manage to piece together a good game against this good St. Louis defense, turning 27 touches for 115 yards. We can’t count on 27 touches, but as long as he continues as Baltimore’s three-down back, he’s a must-pickup.

Panthers 44, Redskins 16
This was a beatdown of monumental proportions, as Kirk Cousins once again let his true colors shine on through, but they weren’t beautiful, like a rainbow, they were more of a puke-stain hue. Cousins has time and time again shown that he can put up good numbers against horrible pass defenses, but quickly reverts to amphibian form when a decent defenses confronts him. He fumbled twice in this one, while also throwing an interception and reminded us all that you should never stop streaming defenses against him.

DeSean Jackson was the only Washington player to have more than six fantasy points, as he had a nice catch-and-run touchdown. He and Jordan Reed led the team with eight targets, while Jamison Crowder had just one. It had looked as if Crowder had become a staple of the offense, but not on Sunday.

Matt Jones fumbled once again and was benched. Even though he keeps teasing us with his fantasy upside, he’s just too scary to rely on. Even with Alfred Morris leaving this game with a rib injury, it was Chris Thompson who saw the most work. Thompson didn’t do much, but he was playing a tough defense. If I had to choose one of these guys, it would be Thompson. Please don’t make me.

The true fantasy news in this game came from Carolina as Cam Newton completed 21-of-34 passes for 246 yards and five touchdowns, each to a different receiver. Six Panthers players topped 10 fantasy points, not including their defense. This is of course same-old, same-old from Newton, as he’s topped 20 fantasy points five times this year and has only dipped below 15 twice.

Even though Newton could have let off the gas in the passing department with a big lead in tow, he didn’t. It was helpful that Cousins continued to give him the ball in Washington territory, but it’s good to see Newton put the ball in the air and be successful consistently. The addition of Devin Funchess as the No. 1 wide receiver has helped solidify a once-inept receiving core. As this group continues to improve, Newton is going to lead some fake teams to championships.

Funchess tied Ted Ginn Jr. for the team lead in targets with eight and caught his second touchdown of the year. The rookie’s still a work in progress, but if he can get the targets, this offense is playing too well not to feel good about his chances.

Broncos 17, Bears 15
Brock Osweiler went 20-of-27 for 250 yards and two touchdowns as he led the Broncos over the Bears and made his bid to regain the starting role. Add in the fact that Emmanuel Sanders was out and it makes this performance look even better. Osweiler is going to make mistakes and bog down this offense, but at this point if you are invested in any Broncos’ players not named Peyton Manning, you want Osweiler under center.

Demaryius Thomas led the team with eight targets, catching three for 59 yards and a touchdown, but Osweiler spread the ball around pretty well, connecting with eight different players on his 20 completions. Thomas’ touchdown was only his second on the season. Again, Osweiler isn’t the second coming of Peyton Manning, but at this point, he’s going to help open up this offense.

Vernon Davis is alive! He was second on the team with six targets and caught all six for 68 yards. Does that make him a pickup? Maybe, but we also should get Sanders back next week.

Ronnie Hillman topped 100 yards rushing and had 22 looks, while C.J. Anderson also played well with 14 touches for 72 yards. I may be giving ol’ Osweiler too much credit here, but his mobility and arm strength helped loosen up the defense enough to create more running lanes for theses two.

The Bears weren’t hopeless in this game, but facing the Denver defense without Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal was not a recipe for success. Jay Cutler had his worst game since Week 2, as he didn’t throw a touchdown for the first time this season. Hopefully, he can get a healthy Jeffery back as Chicago has a decent schedule of Green Bay, San Francisco, Washington, Minnesota and Tampa Bay on the docket.

Jeremy Langford didn’t fare as well as he has since taking over for Matt Forte, but he did manage a touchdown, giving him four in the last three games. When Forte gets back, it will be tough to use Langford in fantasy, but he should see more work than he was before he came out punching after Forte hit the canvas. Are those roller-derby metaphors?

Lions 18, Raiders 13
As someone heavily invested in this game for daily fantasy purposes, I’d like to go on record with a strongly worded letter condemning both teams play. Dear Mr. Lion and Raider, You hurt me, sirs. You hurt me dearly and deeply and maybe even a little daftly, because I had to be out of my mind to rely on you people! Okay, now that that’s out of my system; what did we learn here?

I learned that Derek Carr still hasn’t taken that next step. After four straight games of 289-plus yards and 13 total touchdowns, he can go to a nice climate-controlled dome, face a bottom-rung pass defense, and complete less than half of his passes for 169 yards and no touchdowns.

Latavius Murray never got going, with just 13 carries for 28 yards. He did get into the end zone after two failed goal-line attempts by Marcel Reece. I like Reece, but Murray is your guy; why go away from him at the goal line? Hopefully his success quells any more thought of Reece vulturing touchdowns.

Detroit won this game, but it wasn’t pretty. The good news is that Matthew Stafford saved his fantasy day with a rushing touchdown. But if you can’t throw one touchdown pass at home, against the Raiders’ pass defense, with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, well, you suck.

Ameer Abdullah led the team with 12 carries, but only managed 44 yards for a 3.6 yards per carry average, which is below average. His explosiveness is just not showing. He’s still young of course and has been benched for fumbling, so hesitancy is definitely a possibility.

Theo Riddick continues to do work in the receiving game. He caught 5-of-6 targets for 72 yards, which was his high in receiving yards for the season. He remains a decent PPR back, but he’s doing nothing with his carries, and his upside is limited by usage.

Colts 24, Falcons 21
Matt Hasselbeck threw two interceptions, which is a bit of rarity for him, but he also threw two touchdowns and led the Colts to a win. He’s gong to continue playing conservatively, but he’s also going to put players in good situations. Unfortunately that player was Ahmad Bradshaw this week, who caught the two touchdowns.

T.Y. Hilton saw just four targets, fourth on the team, and caught two for four yards. Desmond Trufant had a little to say about that and Hasselbeck is not in the “force it to your No. 1 receiver” school of quarterbacking now that he’s a wise old 40 years old.

Donte Moncrief saw the team lead with eight targets, catching five for 41 yards. While Hass is under center, the deep ball has gone the way of the Carolina Parakeet. (Yes, there was a parakeet in the U.S. and y’all done killed them off. Thanks a bunch.)

Ahmad Bradshaw is the best running back, red-zone receiver of all time. Or he might be. Let me go to the Google. Well, Google didn’t want to tell me much, but I did find out that he’s had 19 targets inside the red zone over the last three seasons and he’s caught nine for touchdowns. That’s pretty darn good.

Frank Gore had an okay game, totaling 19 touches for 80 yards, with most coming through the air. Hasselbeck is going to use his running backs in the passing game. He targeted them nine times, and they caught all nine for 66 yards and two touchdowns. Gore was hurting toward the end of this game, as he was limping around and later said he had a knee ailment. Well, he might not have said “ailment,” but something like that. Anyway, he says he’ll be fine, but it’s worth monitoring, and if Bradshaw is available, grab him as insurance.

Matt Ryan threw three touchdowns for the first time this season, but that’s the only real positive from his game, as he also threw two interceptions and completed just 54 percent of his passes. Leonard Hankerson dropping passes and Roddy White’s oldness unfortunately didn’t help Ryan.

The biggest news here – for me – was Devonta Freeman leaving the game early with a concussion. He had already ripped off a good run and was poised for a nice game when he went down. He hopefully will make it through concussion protocol and be able to play against Minnesota next week, but after that his schedule deteriorates into Devonta’s Inferno with Tampa Bay, Carolina, Jacksonville and Carolina again – all top run defenses.

Cowboys 24, Dolphins 14
Tony Romo is back, well, not completely, but close enough. He had one horrid interception, but the other was on a bad route by Dez Bryant, and Romo made plays that only he could make, moving in the pocket, keeping his eyes down field and throwing strikes. He didn’t get you the fantasy points this week, but his ability was evident and evidently still there.

A gimpy Darren McFadden managed 32 touches for 149 yards. And yes, he was not 100 percent. He is getting used like 2006 Larry Johnson. It’s going to be tough for him to keep this pace up. Pick up Robert Turbin where you can.

Terrance Williams is actually breathing, so Romo targeted him four times, and he caught all four for 79 yards and a touchdown. This is where Romo helps the most. Four targets are craptastic, but four good targets can be all your fantasy player needs.

Ryan Tannehill seems like he could be a Top-10 fantasy quarterback with his ability to run the ball and what could be a quick-hitting up-tempo offense, but it’s just not happening. He has good offensive players around him, but he makes too many bad reads. Tannehill managed two touchdown passes, but only 188 yards. And on the day, the Dolphins totaled 210 yards and nine first downs.

With those kinds of stats, the touchdowns were the only thing supporting fantasy players this week and they went to Jordan Cameron and Kenny Stills, while Lamar Miller touched the ball just nine times.

Thankfully for those looking for some sneaky fantasy players in Weeks 15 and 16, the Dolphins get San Diego and Indianapolis. Both matchups should have some fantasy goodness.

Buccaneers 45, Eagles 17
Much like Mr. Cameron Newton, Jameis Winston threw five touchdown passes to five targets. Well, that was exactly what Newton did. It was a dominant performance over an Eagles team that in no way showed up for this game. Winston had thrown one touchdown in his last three games, but had also rushed for three touchdowns in that stretch. He’s finding ways to put up fantasy points, and this week he found that the Eagles would make it a little easier for him.

Doug Martin almost broke the Buccaneers’ single-game rushing record as he totaled 235 yards rushing on 27 carries. The Bucs’ record is held by Martin himself, with 251 rushing yards against Oakland in his rookie year, but he also added 21 yards receiving and four fat-cheeked hamster touchdowns. Damn, Gina!

Like Newton, Winston’s yardage total was lowish, especially with five touchdowns, and since five players caught those touchdowns, no single receiver went off. But Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson led the way in targets and yardage, while getting a touchdown each. Much like Funchess for Newton, the return of Jackson really helps Winston. Just think if Austin Seferian-Jenkins ever came out and didn’t see his shadow?

I’m not sure I want to write about the Eagles. They are depressing to say the least, which is really as much as I want to say. But I’ll push past the least I could say, into enough to make fun of how bad they were. First off, if Brent Celek is your leading receiver two weeks in a row, just turn in you jockstrap and call it a career.

Mark Sanchez threw two touchdowns, on the anniversary of “The Butt Fumble.” Way to kill those butt-fumble demons Mark!, oh wait, he also threw three interceptions and averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt. He’s still on the fantasy radar in an offense that throws a lot of plays at you, but the efficiency is going to remain woeful.

Texans 24, Jets 17
Ryan Fitzpatrick managed to keep from having a horrible fantasy game when he rushed for a touchdown, but it really was horrible, as he completed less than 50 percent of his 39 passes for 216 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He’s still Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Eric Decker led the team with 11 targets, but only caught four, thankfully for 81 yards, but he didn’t find the end zone for the first time this season. He’s been Fitzpatrick’s top target in three of the last four games, and even though Brandon Marshall caught a touchdown, he just doesn’t look healthy right now. I’d probably prefer Decker if I were faced with my personal Sophie’s Choice.

Chris Ivory had just eight carries for 36 yards and now, even with a decent game last week, has 219 yards rushing on 81 carries over his last five games. He seems to have hit a lull, which could have something to do with his maniacal running style. Whatever it is, I’m worried about his ability to help you get to and compete in the fantasy playoffs.

T.J. Yates “led” his team to a win, much like I’d lead Steph Curry to a three-pointer by tossing the ball to him. This game was won by Houston’s defense and DeAndre “Nuk” Hopkins’ amazing ability. Nuk caught 5-of-12 targets for 118 yards and two touchdowns, and Yates missed him for a 70-yard bomb early in the game that would have gone for a touchdown. Hopkins gets the Saints next week; have mercy on their souls.

Alfred Blue caught a wide-open touchdown from Cecil Shorts on a trick play, but Jonathan Grimes looked like the better back today, though Blue had 24 touches to Grimey’s nine. It’s hard to get excited about Houston’s running game, but I did like what I saw of Grimey.

Chiefs 33, Chargers 3
My supposition that Phillip Rivers could put up good fantasy numbers with the cast of The Facts of Life was in no way correct. His constantly injured offensive line and receiving core has finally caught up with him as he completed 19-of-30 passes for 178 yards and an interception that was returned for a touchdown.

Kansas City’s defense continues to improve, and we had a bit of a perfect storm here with an injured Chargers team versus the surging Chiefs defense. No San Diego player topped 54 yards, and of course, none of them got into the end zone.

Alex Smith played extremely conservatively, completing 20-of-25 passes for 253 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions, while the scoring in this game was a little odd. The first touchdown went to defensive lineman Dontari Poe, then the second touchdown was a pick-six for Justin Houston, then the next two were 3-yard runs from Spencer Ware. Charcandrick West leaving the game early with a hamstring injury, of course, helped facilitate these odd touchdowns, other than the pick-six, along, as most of you who play daily fantasy could probably attest to.

We don’t know how long West will be out, but Ware looked strong in relief, so he needs to be picked up off the waiver wire.

Packers 30, Vikings 13
Seeing Aaron Rodger complete under 50 percent of his passes should be a sign of the apocalypse. It was the sixth time in his career, but the good news is that he looked better in the second half and made some amazing Aaron Rodgers-like throws.

James Jones was coming off a big goose egg last week, but it hatched and out came a six receptions, 109 yards, one receiving touchdown and the following two-point conversion completion. It looked so ugly-cute popping its head out of the shell and catching a dart from Rodgers for a touchdown.

Eddie Lacy is back, kinda, probably, maybe, sorta. He ran the ball 22 times for 100 yards and caught one pass for six yards, while James Starks rushed eight times for 14 yards and caught one pass for 30 yards. This was a pretty clear statement that Lacy’s taken back the lead back job.

Kyle Rudolph had his very first 100-yard receiving game, which comes as a pretty big surprise, as Rudolph hadn’t topped 53 yards on the season and hadn’t caught more than two passes since Week 2. He ended up catching 6-of-9 targets for 106 yards and a touchdown. This is the kind of game we were expecting on a regular basis from Rudolph, and now we get it four years later. He’ll have to do this about three more times in a row before I could stomach having him on my fantasy team.

Teddy Bridgewater had his best fantasy game of the season as well, completing 25-of-37 passes for 296 yards and a touchdown, while rushing four times for 43 yards. Of course, those 43 yards elevated his game from average at best to good.

Seahawks 29, 49ers 13
Blaine Gabbert is playing for his NFL career right now and making a case to stay in the game – and maybe not just as a backup. Of course, he’s only played in two games this season, but going to Seattle and completing 22-of-34 passes for 264 yards, one touchdown and no turnovers, is in no way an easy task. He gets another tough matchup next week against Arizona, and if he can manage another competent game, he’ll probably have extended his NFL life at least a year or two.

Gabbert was a check-down machine in this game, with 11 targets for Shaun Draughn, who caught eight of them for just 40 yards, but he also managed to get Anquan Boldin five receptions for 93 yards. Really, Gabbert could fall down in the corner of the end zone and cry himself to sleep, and we’d still say he doesn’t look that bad in comparison to old Gabbert and this year’s Kaepernick.

The Seahawks came to play this week, as Russell Wilson completed 24-of-29 passes for 260 yards and three touchdowns, and Thomas Rawls rushed 30 times for 209 yards and a score, and caught 3-of-3 targets for 46 yards and another touchdown. It was a complete domination.

No Seattle receiver topped six targets, while Tyler Lockett caught two touchdowns on five targets. Eight players caught a pass in this game and only Lockett had much fantasy relevance. Don’t trust a Seattle receiver with your donuts or your fantasy team.

Cardinals 34, Bengals 31
Wow, what a barnburner this game was. The Bengals put together plenty of yards and points, but this was Carson Palmer’s revenge game, and that means death. Palmer did throw two interceptions, but made up for it with 317 yards and four touchdowns. A big percentage of those yards went to J.J. Nelson, who caught 4-of-6 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown, while Jaron Brown had zero targets after coming in for Michael Floyd last week. Nelson happened to be inactive last week as well. I’m writing all of this to say, don’t get all snippy with me for suggest Jaron might make a good start. If you’re really interested in appointing blame, I know a guy in the desert wearing a Kangol.

The target leader was Larry Fitzgerald, who caught 8-of-13 targets for 90 yards, but no touchdowns, while David Johnson, Darren Fells, Nelson and the other Brown all caught touchdown passes.

This game was full of surprises for me. John “Smokey” Brown getting a touchdown despite his hamstring injury, the whole J.J. and Jaron debacle, and the fact that Andre Ellington had three touches after putting together a big game last week on triple the touches. I guess you can’t question the Kangol Whisperer.

Jeremy Hill scored two touchdowns. Let me just get that out of the way because I find that fact annoying. There are so many more deserving players Marvin! Hill rushed 13 times for 45 yards and the two touchdowns, while Giovani Bernard caught 8-of-10 passes for 128 yards, which is actually fewer fantasy points than Hill’s mediocre touchdown game.

Andy Dalton was not on point, especially downfield, as shown here by the PPR Saint Bernard’s big day. Dalton ended up having a good fantasy day by targeting Tyler Eifert in the end zone and connecting twice.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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