Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 11, 2016

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Vikings 30, Cardinals 24
The Vikings’ defense and special teams led the team in fantasy points this week, and it wasn’t very close. Thanks, Carson Palmer!

Stefon Diggs was shut down by Patrick Peterson, which Bruce Arians hinted at earlier in the week. Diggs won’t have to face shadow coverage like that very often, so expect him to bounce back, especially with a nice schedule coming up against Detroit, Dallas, Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Green Bay.

Carson Palmer has fallen off a cliff and is now hurting his team more than helping it. He gave up a 100-yard pick six, threw another interception, took four sacks and completed 20-of-38 passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns. Of course, the Vikings’ defense is good, but Palmer beat himself over and over again.

David Johnson is simply amazing, and you should thank the deity of your choice that he’s on your team. He rushed 22 times for 103 yards and a touchdown, plus caught 7-of-11 targets for 57 yards and another touchdown. Johnson now has 12 touchdowns, 47 receptions and 1,373 total yards through 10 games, and he just passed Ezekiel Elliot as the top fantasy running back on the year.

Giants 22, Bears 16
The wind played a factor in this game, so the two touchdown passes from Eli Manning are worth some praise. He wasn’t great by any means, but the results didn’t kill you. What might have hurt though was Odell Beckham Jr.’s five receptions for 46 yards. I think we can give him a mulligan with the wind and then look forward to games against Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Dallas and Detroit next on the schedule.

Rashad Jennings has come on strong in the last two games, and with the wind, he was relied on even more this week with 26 touches for 129 yards and one rushing touchdown. He should be able to continue that play next week in Cleveland.

Jay Cutler looked good in the wind and on the road, as he completed 17-of-30 passes for 252 yards, one touchdown and an interception, which was on a desperation throw as time ticked to zero. He was without Alshon Jeffery and then lost Zach Miller in the middle of this game to a broken foot after he had already caught a laser from Cutler for a touchdown. The Bears have very little in the passing game now, and with Cutler’s Jekyll and Hyde nature, stay far away from him moving forward.

Buccaneers 19, Chiefs 17
Doug Martin appears to be fully back as he turned 24 carries into 63 rushing yards and caught three balls for 42 yards on four targets. The yards per carry were poor, but he had some burst in this game and showed that he can be useful in fantasy to finish off the season, especially in the fantasy playoffs when the Bucs face the Saints twice.

Kansas City put up a lackluster effort all around against Tampa Bay. Alex Smith rushed for a touchdown and passed for another, giving him a good day fantasy-wise, but he was playing a weak Tampa Bay pass defense and couldn’t do enough to win the game.

Spencer Ware also wasn’t sharp as he rushed 17 times for 69 yards and caught two passes for 16 yards. His receptions have fallen drastically since earlier in the year, which I’m fine blaming on Andy Reid, but blame isn’t going to get those passing numbers up.

Lions 26, Jaguars 19
The Lions’ “offense” came on a punt return touchdown, an interception return for a touchdown and a one-yard run by the tight end Eric Ebron for their third touchdown. Matthew Stafford struggled against a strong Jacksonville pass defense, but managed to not turn the ball over and showed how much he’s an improved as a real quarterback, which will continue to translate into his fake quarterback stats moving forward.

Theo Riddick remains viable even in down games, as he caught eight passes for 70 yards, which I will take in PPR leagues.

Blake Bortles hurt his shoulder early in this game, and his offense, which appeared conservative already, got even more conservative. He did throw for two short touchdowns, but he was also picked off twice and only totaled 202 passing yards. His upside is only there when the Jaguars are in pass, pass, pass mode, but the team is losing faith in Bortles, which it should be, and it’s going to hurt his fantasy ceiling.

Dolphins 14, Rams 10
Ryan Tannehill led his team absolutely nowhere for every drive of the game except for the last two, which he turned into two touchdown passes and a win. It was quite weird to watch, and a little funny as Jeff Fisher is a horrible football coach, but it does also show just how inconsistent Tannehill can be and has been his whole career. Miami will continue to try to run the ball and play strong defense, so Tannehill’s ceiling will continue to press down on him in fantasy.

DeVante Parker caught 8-of-10 targets for 79 yards and one touchdown, and showed just how good he can be. He should be on your dynasty-league radar, but this passing game is going to continue to have a low floor for the immediate future.

FisherBall remains the most boring and least effective offense in the world, and with Jared Goff at the helm, it got even more conservative and boring.

Seahawks 26, Eagles 15
Russell Wilson completed 18-of-31 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown, plus caught one pass for a 15-yard touchdown from Doug Baldwin. Wilson looks completely healthy now, and even though it wasn’t a dominant passing day, he made some great throws and was able to avoid pressure. The schedule isn’t great, but Wilson is a top option each week from here on out.

C.J. Prosise rambled off a 72-yard touchdown run early in this one, but suffered a fractured scapula later in the game and will miss the rest of the season. It’s now Thomas Rawls’ job. Rawls looked good in his first game back, rushing 14 times for 57 yards and catching 3-of-4 targets for 31 yards, but after Tampa Bay next week, the Seahawks face Carolina, Green Bay, Los Angeles and Arizona to finish off the fantasy season. Rawls will of course be a fantasy start in each of those, but he will have trouble putting up big numbers.

Carson Wentz was not up to the task of going into Seattle and doing anything that could push his team to a win. He looked like a rookie and has obviously regressed from his early success.

Both Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles were injured in this game. Mathews suffered a right MCL sprain, and Sproles has a rib injury of some kind. Wendell Smallwood would see the most work if both were out and a bump in work if one of them remains out.

Bills 16, Bengals 12
Dan Carpenter was your highest-scoring Bills fantasy player this week, so I think you can guess how the offensive skill players did. You are correct, bupkis. LeSean McCoy got off to a nice start and found the end zone early, but then dislocated his thumb and had to leave the game. He’ll need surgery, but the team seems to feel he’ll be okay for next week against Jacksonville.

The Bills also lost Robert Woods to a knee injury, so the offense was hobbled early in this one. We don’t know the extent of Woods’ injury, but he was on crutches after the game.

In postgame, Bills’ linebacker Preston Brown said he believes Sammy Watkins will return next week, which with all these injuries, would be manna from heaven.

This game was full of injuries, but the worst by far for fantasy players was A.J. Green, who tore his right hamstring. It looks like he’ll be out the rest of the season, pending an MRI.

After Green left, Tyler Boyd became Andy Dalton’s favorite target, catching 6-of-8 targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. He should be useful moving forward with Green out.

Giovani Bernard was used more in this game than he had been of late, as he rushed seven times for 21 yards and caught 5-of-8 targets for 40 yards, but it was just reported that he tore his ACL and is done for the year. We’ll see some more of Rex Burkhead for some passing-down work, but Jeremy Hill should see a big increase in snaps and touches, and in Week 14, he faces the Browns. That should be fun.

Steelers 24, Browns 9
Strong winds slowed both offenses down in this game, but the Steelers were just a better team and they let Le’Veon Bell take the lead, and take the lead he did. He rushed 28 times for 146 yards and added eight receptions for 55 yards. He has yet to have a game with fewer than five receptions and is averaging 7.6 receptions per game. The Browns have an inept defense, but even when they knew Bell was getting the ball, they had no chance at stopping him.

Cody Kessler was concussed as the Steelers sacked Cleveland’s quarterbacks eight times – they had a league-worst 13 sacks coming into this game. Josh McCown came in and lit a small spark under the offense, but it was swiftly snuffed out as he was strip-sacked for a defensive touchdown to end the game.

Amazingly, Terrelle Pryor caught 5-of-10 targets for 97 yards and led the team in fantasy points. The fact that he continues to play well as the Browns’ offense shrinks is a pretty good sign of his ability.

Cowboys 27, Ravens 17
Dak Prescott completed 27-of-36 passes for 301 yards and three touchdowns against a Baltimore defense that came into this week playing very well. This is just par for the course for Prescott now, but he does continue to raise his ceiling each week. He now has thrown for over 300 yards in his last two games and has thrown for 13 touchdowns to two interceptions over the last five weeks. In Weeks 15 and 16, he’ll face Tampa Bay and Detroit in Dallas.

Dez Bryant caught 6-of-8 targets for 80 yards and two touchdowns. After a slow start and then a Bryant injury, it didn’t look like Dak and Dez would be able to put up the numbers Bryant is used to, but they have and in a big way. This Dallas offense is now fully functional and can beat you in multiple ways.

Steve Smith was the offensive story for the Ravens as he caught 8-of-9 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown to pass the 1,000-reception mark. He’s a Hall of Famer in my book.

Both Kenneth Dixon and Terrance West looked good this week, with West rushing eight times for 42 yards and a touchdown, while also catching an 11-yard pass, and Dixon rushing six times for 40 yards. But for some reason, the Ravens went away from them in the second half. They combined for an unthinkable two touches in the second half. This is the exact reason Marc Trestman was supposedly fired.

Colts 24, Titans 17
Andrew Luck started off hot against the Titans, throwing touchdowns to Donte Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton in the Colts’ first three drives, but the offense went stale after that, and once again, the offensive line showed plenty of cracks, causing Luck to scramble eight times. He had a solid, but unspectacular fantasy game in a matchup he easily could have put up big numbers in once again.

Marcus Mariota completed 25-of-38 passes for 290 yards and two touchdowns, and continued to show that he’s a safe fantasy play week in and week out. The Titans started off slowly, and it took a painfully long time for Mariota to get going – yes, I had him all over in DFS! -, but he did get going and was able to connect with all of his receivers, but once again, Rishard Matthews was his main target, catching 9-of-13 targets for 122 yards. Matthews just missed a touchdown, but he easily out-targeted the rest of the group and continues to be a must-start.

The Titans’ schedule moving forward isn’t exactly a cakewalk. They get a good matchup against the Bears next week, but will be in Chicago. Then ,they get their bye in Week 13, then Denver at home in Week 14 then two road games against Kansas City and Jacksonville. It’s not an impossible stretch of course, but it’s not the easiest either.

Patriots 30, 49ers 17
Tom Brady had a nice homecoming as he completed 24-of-40 passes for 280 yards with four touchdowns on a rainy day in Northern California. After no touchdown passes last week, it was good to see Brady get it going again with the big game.

Martellus Bennett is dead to me.

Julian Edelman saw 17 targets, catching eight for 77 yards and a touchdown. The efficiency wasn’t there, but there’s no doubt that Edelman continues to be Brady’s go-to receiver.

Colin Kaepernick will spend his third week in the Top-10 of fantasy quarterbacks as he completed 16-of-30 passes for 206 yards with two touchdowns and rushed four times for 32 yards. It wasn’t always pretty, but with Chip Kelly running such an up-tempo offense, it’s tough to not put up decent fantasy stats in good matchups.

Carlos Hyde rushed for 86 yards on 19 carries and caught all three of his targets for 24 yards in a nice bounce-back game after last week.

Redskins 42, Packers 24

Kirk Cousins was masterful as he completed 21-of-30 passes for 375 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Of course, he was playing the Packers, who have now given up 33, 31, 47 and 42 points in each of their last four games.

Rob Kelley rushed 24 times for 137 yards and three touchdowns against a Green Bay run defense that had been a strong, but now the team’s whole defense is collapsing and obviously is one to target in both the running and passing game.

Pierre Garcon caught 6-of-7 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. He led the Redskins in targets and now has six receptions in four of his last five games.

Aaron Rodgers also had a big game, completing 26-of-41 passes for 351 yards and three touchdowns, and adding 31 rushing yards on three carries. He’s now topped 23 fantasy points in five straight games. You really can’t get much better than that, and with the Packers’ defense swirling down the drain, Rodgers will have to continue pushing the tempo to keep up with whatever team is crushing them on that particular day.

Jared Cook had a costly fumble, but also added a dimension to the Packers’ offense that they were sorely missing. He also led the team with 11 targets and caught six of those for 105 yards and a touchdown. Josh Norman limited Jordy Nelson to just three receptions, which helped Cook see so many targets, but I don’t think a fumble is going to hurt Cooks chances of seeing decent targets moving forward.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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