Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 16, 2016

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Dolphins 34, Bills 31
The Buffalo Bills are going to have Jay Ajayi nightmares this offseason. When Buffalo and Miami last met in Week 7, he rushed for 214 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries. Fast forward nine weeks and move the game to Buffalo, and Ajayi rushes for 206 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries, including an overtime run that set up Miami’s game-winning field goal.

The Dolphins’ Matt Moore wasn’t as good as last week against the lowly Jets, but did play well enough with 233 yards passing for two touchdowns and one interception. Ajayi’s big game and a long run after the catch from DeVante Parker for a touchdown were the big movers this week.

The Bills’ offense was great in this game, but their defense let them down. Tyrod Taylor put up his first 300-yard passing game of the year, as he completed 26-of-39 passes for 329 yards and three touchdowns, while also adding 60 rushing yards on 12 carries. It was by far his best fantasy game of the year as well. The Bills aren’t sold on him, but when you look at quarterbacks around the league, I don’t see how they can let him walk.

LeSean McCoy continued his dominant play, rushing 24 times for 128 yards and a touchdown, plus catching five passes for 17 yards. He has seven touchdowns over his last six games and has topped 130 total yards in four of his last five. Chip Kelly was absolutely incorrect to move away from McCoy in Philadelphia.

Patriots 41, Jets 3
The Jets might as well not have shown up this week, because it might not have been quite as embarrassing. Tom Brady barely had to do anything to complete 17-of-27 passes for 214 yards and three touchdowns through three quarters, when he was taken out due to the blowout. The lack of any offense by the Jets really hurt the Patriots’ passing game because they could have put up 400 yards without breaking a sweat.

With such a large lead, New England gave LeGarrette Blount 20 carries, which he only went for 50 yards with, but he did score twice, raising his rushing-touchdown total to an amazing 17 on the season.

Bryce Petty didn’t complete a pass on three attempts, except one to the other team and then Ryan Fitzpatrick came in and completed just 8-of-21 passes for 136 yards and two interceptions. Add in a lost fumble from Khiry Robinson, and you have four turnovers and another humiliating loss by the Jets.

Jaguars 38, Titans 17
The Titans needed this game in the worst way, but the Jaguars came to play. Blake Bortles started off hot and had one of his best games of the season, completing 26-of-38 passes for 325 yards and one touchdown, plus caught a touchdown pass from Marqise Lee. Bortles is still not very good, but the Titans’ pass defense is really that bad.

Allen Robinson came to life, snagging 9-of-12 targets for 147 yards. He tied his previous high in receptions and beat out his high in yardage for the year, with only his second 100-yard game of the season. That’s not what you want from your top receiver in Week 16.

Marcus Mariota was not sharp in this game, completing just 8-of-20 for 99 yards and a touchdown, but he didn’t get a chance to work late into the game as he broke his fibula and is done for the season. Mariota had a very good season that trailed off due to some tough matchups. He’ll be a top quarterback in fantasy next season.

Packers 38, Vikings 25
Aaron Rodgers was unstoppable this week as he completed 28-of-38 passes for 347 yards and four touchdowns, adding two rushes for 13 yards and another touchdown. This was against a Minnesota defense that had given him trouble in the past, but he breezed through it this week.

Jordy Nelson continued his great fantasy season with 9-of-11 receptions for 154 yards and two touchdowns. He now has 14 touchdowns on the season and will head indoors to Detroit next week. Amazingly, it was discovered after the game that the Vikings coaches had told Xavier Rhodes to shadow Jordy Nelson, but the secondary decided to not do that and Nelson ate them up.

The Vikings trailed all game, which put them in pass mode early. Sam Bradford threw the ball a healthy 50 times, completing 34 for 382 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. All of those numbers were season highs for Bradford and the yardage was a career high. Green Bay’s secondary is not good.

Bradford’s main target was Adam Thielen, who also had a career day, catching 12-of-15 passes for 202 yards and two touchdowns. That moved Thielen ahead of Stefon Diggs as the team’s leading receiver, which I don’t think anyone in the world predicted. Thielen has looked great this year and has earned himself a starting job at the very least.

Browns 20, Chargers 17
The Browns won’t lose every game this year, which I guess is a good thing. Their two scores came from runs by Isaiah Crowell, who Hue Jackson loves and is still pegged to be their lead back going into next season. He’s an uneven player, but so is his team. Hue Jackson can work with him I think.

Robert Griffin III was better than he has been, which isn’t saying much. He completed 17-of-25 passes for 164 yards and also rushed six times for 42 yards, but he had to leave due to a concussion. He’s just too vulnerable as a runner, which is a big reason he has not held onto a starting job in the NFL.

Philip Rivers completed 23-of-46 passes for 322 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The Chargers’ lack of run game really stalled this offense at some of the worst times, but Rivers did give fantasy owners another decent game. He’s now thrown for multiple touchdowns in eight straight. Of course, he also has 15 interceptions in that span.

Antonio Gates looks a little like a huge slug that learned to walk upright, but he’s still the savvy veteran who can catch about anything. He did that this week, hauling in 8-of-13 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown. Gates now needs one more to tie and two to surpass Tony Gonzalez for the most career touchdowns for a tight end. Gates will have to do it against a tough Kansas City defense.

Redskins 41, Bears 21
Kirk Cousins completed 18-of-29 passes for 270 yards and one touchdown, but did most of his fantasy damage with his legs, as he rushed for two touchdowns. Cousins put up some big gains to DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, but Cousins wasn’t exactly sharp.

Washington notched four rushing touchdowns and none went to Rob Kelley, who rushed 19 times for 76 yards. When you think about a running back getting vultured, remember this day.

Matt Barkley threw five interceptions, of which the majority of them were just bad throws. He then would turn around and make a great throw, but it wasn’t close to enough. On the day, he completed 24-of-40 passes for 323 yards, two touchdowns and the five picks. Barkley has ability, but it’s yet to be seen if he can bring it together.

Cameron Meredith caught 9-of-12 targets for 135 yards and one touchdown, and he has been Barkley’s favorite receiver this season. The Bears face Minnesota next week, but I don’t think you can stop playing Meredith.

Falcons 33, Panthers 16
Matt Ryan completed 27-of-33 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns, and he looked perfect doing so. It didn’t matter whom he was throwing to, as he completed his two touchdowns to Joshua Perkins and D.J. Tialavea – Yeah, I don’t know.

Devonta Freeman had a quiet game, but did catch eight passes for 35 yards and rushed 13 times for 53 yards, while Tevin Coleman touched the ball 12 times for 135 yards and a touchdown. These two are tough to judge each week for fantasy, but they both have so much upside that they’ll continue to both be starts.

Cam Newton completed 18-of-43 passes for 198 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions besides rushing for 36 yards. Newton continues to regress, even after a strong game last week. His completion percentage is one of the worst in the league, and now he’s not making enough splash plays to make up for it.

Raiders 33, Colts 25
Unfortunately the biggest news in this game was Derek Carr breaking his fibula, ending his season and most likely Oakland’s playoff hopes. Carr was very good before he was injured, completing 20-of-30 passes for 228 yards and three touchdowns. Matt McGloin came in and only threw three passes. He will be the Raiders’ playoff quarterback.

The running back situation in Oakland is a mess for fantasy, but the backs were great as a group. Unfortunately, you can’t play “Raiders RBs” in fake football. Latavius Murray led the team with 17 touches, but only accumulated 51 yards, while DeAndre Washington rushed 12 times for 99 yards and two touchdowns, and Jalen Richard rushed six times for 66 yards. Latavius Murray is back to being a piece of a larger committee.

Andrew Luck completed 19-of-29 passes for 288 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, plus tacked on an 11-yard touchdown run. That touchdown run elevated his fantasy numbers quite well and gave him another good fantasy game. He needs some offensive line help, sooner rather than later.

Saints 31, Buccaneers 24
Drew Brees completed 23-of-34 passes for 299 yards and a touchdown, which is a down game for him in fantasy, especially in the dome. But it’s also much better than the last time these teams met just two weeks ago. He kept from turning the ball over despite getting plenty of pressure.

Mark Ingram was pissed last week that he didn’t get goal-line looks, so he decided to score from outside the goal line this week with six- and 14-yard touchdown runs. It really is too bad that Sean Payton is so enamored with Tim Hightower, as Ingram has averaged over five yards per carry this year and could have had a big fantasy year without Hightower in the mix.

Michael Thomas wasn’t able to play against the Bucs two weeks ago, but this week, he continued to show that he is a top receiver in this league already as a rookie. He caught 6-of-8 targets for 98 yards, which isn’t a huge fantasy game, but it’s good enough, and he looks like a true No. 1 receiver for the NFL. Thomas will be going ahead of Brandin Cooks next season in fantasy football drafts.

Jameis Winston completed 23-of-35 passes for 277 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He wasn’t great in this game, but he also lost his second-best receiver in Cameron Brate during the third quarter, and it showed when Brate was needed near the goal line.

Doug Martin was a healthy scratch for this game, which mean the staff believe that Peyton Barber is an upgrade over him. Hopefully we’ll learn more about the reasoning behind Martin being scratched.

Jacquizz Rodgers got the start in Martin’s place, and he rushed 15 times for 63 yards and a touchdown, plus caught both of his targets for 15 yards. Charles Sims, meanwhile, only ran the ball twice for 12 yards and caught all four of his targets for 30 yards. Unless news changes, this appears to be the pecking order going into next week’s matchup with Carolina.

Cardinals 34, Seahawks 31
David Johnson rushed 28 times for 95 yards and three touchdowns in addition to catching 4-of-7 targets for 41 yards. This, of course, all came against one of the best defenses in the league on its home turf. Johnson won many a fantasy player a championship this season and will likely be considered the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.

Carson Palmer took a back seat to Johnson, but did find J.J. Nelson for an 80-yard touchdown and finished the day completing 16-of-26 passes for 284 yards and that touchdown. Palmer says he will return next season. He has been awful at times this year and seems to be in a steady decline, but when given time, he is still likely better than a decent swath of quarterbacks in the NFL.

Russell Wilson completed 29-of-45 passes for 350 yards and four touchdowns, plus rushed 10 times for 36 yards. He started off extremely slowly, and it didn’t look like he had a shot at such huge numbers, but he rallied his team back and finished with his best fantasy day of the year.

Doug Baldwin was Wilson’s main target, seeing 19 compared to the second most going to Jermaine Kearse with nine. Baldwin caught 13 of his targets for 171 yards and a touchdown for his biggest yardage output of the year.

49ers 22, Rams 21
Colin Kaepernick completed 28-of-38 passes for 266 yards with two touchdowns and an interception aside from toting six carries for 15 yards and a touchdown. He started off slowly, but brought his team back to win in heroic fashion, while also putting up 25 fantasy points. He’s shown he belongs in the league, but still has accuracy issues; however, his dual-threat ability should keep him in the NFL and possibly starting.

Jared Goff completed 11-of-24 passes for 90 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Yes, that’s 90 yards passing against the 49ers. And yes, he’s not good.

Todd Gurley rushed 23 times for 67 yards and a touchdown , plus made three receptions for 20 yards. The 49ers are allowing opposing running backs to pile up more than 180 yards per game against them this season. Yes, the Rams’ offensive line is poor, but Gurley just doesn’t look like the same player from last season. His burst and speed have faded away, leaving us with Trent Richardson.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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