Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 10, 2016

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Texans 24, Jaguars 21

The Texans won this game with Brock Osweiler throwing for fewer than 100 yards. He did manage two short touchdown passes to tight ends Stephen Anderson and Ryan Griffin; two players you would have been insane to start in fantasy.

You can guess how well DeAndre Hopkins did this week, and you would be correct. He saw 13 targets and caught five for 48 yards. Hopkins now hasn’t hit 50 yards in his last three games and has gone scoreless in his last four. Osweiler has been a downgrade for Hopkins stats this year. The only hope for him is that the Texans have an easy schedule coming up with games at Oakland, against San Diego, at Green Bay, at Indianapolis, against Jacksonville, and against Cincinnati.

Blake Bortles continues to play losing football, but he’s aggressive enough with the passing game that he’s getting a couple or more touchdowns. This week, Bortles completed 32-of-49 passes for 265 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, which was returned for a touchdown.

That aggressive passing is finally getting Allen Robinson back into a groove, as he’s now topped six receptions and 70 yards in each of his last three games, and over the last two games, he’s totaled 16 receptions for 183 yards and two touchdowns.

Chiefs 20, Panthers 17

Alex Smith missed multiple touchdown throws in this game and ended up with just 178 yards passing, no touchdowns and one interception. It was a pitiful display really, but somehow the Chiefs won this game on their defense.

The best news for Kansas City was that Spencer Ware returned and made it through the game, and that Tyreek Hill caught 10-of-13 targets for 89 yards. Short passes and the running game are what Alex Smith can handle.

Cam Newton completed 23-of-38 passes for 261 yards, one touchdown and one interception, plus also ran the ball 12 times for 54 yards and another touchdown. It was his best rushing game since week 1. He’s not going to stop running, which means his upside will remain very high.

Kelvin Benjamin hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4, but he’s now hit 70 or more yards in his last five games. New Orleans and Oakland are next on the schedule.

Redskins 26, Vikings 20

Kirk Cousins passed for two touchdowns on the first two drives and then settled into check-down mode. Most of those check-downs went to Pierre Garcon, who led the team with six receptions on 10 targets for 81 yards. DeSean Jackson was out for this game, so Garcon saw a bump in work, while Jamison Crowder was second in targets with six, catching four for 37 yards and a touchdown.

Rob Kelley led the way on the ground with 22 carries for 97 yards and caught one pass for negative two yards. He’s a bit of a plodder who gets what’s given to him, so his upside remains low despite his 23 touches this week.

Stefon Diggs is good at football. He caught 13-of-15 targets for 164 yards against Washington and seemed to be able to get open at will underneath. He’s caught an amazing 26 passes over his last two games now, but has only found the end zone twice this year. Sam Bradford is easily at his best with short to medium throws, which will hurt Diggs’ upside, but will also make him a PPR king.

Matt Asiata had a goal-line touchdown, but that was it for the rushing game, which was non-existent between Asiata and Jerick McKinnon as the combined for 15 carries for 29 yards. The Vikings’ schedule doesn’t look great for running the ball either, so I’m not going to worry much about keeping either Asiata or McKinnon on my team in 12-team or fewer leagues.

Bucs 36, Bears 10

Jameis Winston put together a decent game, completing 23-of-33 passes for 312 yards for two touchdowns and one interception. It wasn’t a great game, but he made a few amazing plays and continues to show enough to consider him a good fantasy start in good matchups.

Doug Martin returned this week and was the lead back until the game was out of hand. He didn’t do much, totaling 33 yards on 16 carries, but he did come in late to steal a goal-line touchdown from Peyton Barber. Martin will continue to lead this backfield from here on, so Barber is now just a handcuff.

Jay Cutler was probably the real MVP for the Buccaneers with three turnovers, of which one was returned for a touchdown. He completed 16-of-30 passes for 182 yards with one touchdown and two interception, plus lost a fumble. The one touchdown came off a deflection in the end zone from a Hail Mary before halftime. Cutler has been able to do well in easy matchups like this in the past, but it’s starting to look like he’s not really into this whole football thing.

Eagles 24, Falcons 15

The Eagles went to the ground in this one to combat the Falcons’ high-flying pass attack, and it worked as Philadelphia’s totaled 208 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The bulk of those stats went to Ryan Mathews, who had 19 carries for 109 yards and two touchdowns, while also catching two passes for 30 yards. Over the previous two weeks, he had just 11 touches. Darren Sproles lost snaps due to the slower-paced ground game, but did manage eight receptions for 57 yards to keep PPR players in the game. This backfield won’t be easy to figure out moving forward, but Mathews and Sproles should remain fantasy starts.

Matt Ryan had his worst fantasy game of the year, but didn’t really look bad, as Philadelphia’s offense slowed the game down and played keep away with Atlanta’s offense. Ryan was able to hit Julio Jones with ease for much of the game and made a nice throw for a 76-yard touchdown to Taylor Gabriel. You hate to have a down game for your No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but I don’t think we need to be concerned moving forward.

Rams 9, Jets 6

Kenny Britt is the best fantasy player on the Rams right now, and it’s not really that close. He caught 7-of-10 targets for 109 yards against the Jets, and most of that came in the first half because the Rams went into clock-killing mode with such a huge three-point lead. Case Keenum isn’t good, so it’s pretty amazing Britt has been able to put together the fantasy season he is. He’s either had a touchdown and/or 75 yards receiving in five of his last six games and should continue to see WR3 stats at least moving forward.

Todd Gurley rushed 21 times for 64 yards and caught one pass for eight yards. He hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last four games, and in this offense, he’s going to need those to be useful in fantasy. Four of his next six games come against not great run defenses, Miami, New Orleans, Atlanta and San Francisco, so there’s a chance he can put together a strong finish to the season, but “strong” for him this year isn’t what it was last season.

Bryce Petty completed 19-of-32 passes for 163 yards, one touchdown and one interception, playing like those numbers indicate. The Jets aren’t making the playoffs, and Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t shown enough to warrant starting over a guy who the Jets would like to evaluate for the future.

Broncos 25, Saints 23

Trevor Siemian completed 25-of-40 passes for 258 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions while looking bad for much of the game. The Broncos won due to a blocked extra point return, not Siemian. Right now, he seems to be hurting the team more than helping, so there’s still a decent chance we see Paxton Lynch again this year.

Devontae Booker rushed 24 times for 76 yards and caught two passes for 12 yards. Those are not good numbers, especially against the Saints’ defense. Kapri Bibbs only ended up with seven touches, so Booker had the lead back role all to himself, but volume is the only thing keeping him fantasy relevant.

Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower continue to split time evenly, which worked against the 49ers last week, but not against Denver. They will continue to hurt each other’s fantasy value.

Titans 47, Packers 25

Marcus Mariota still hasn’t turned the ball over once he’s moved his team into the red zone. That’s pretty amazing, as was his game today against the Packers. He completed 19-of-26 passes for 295 yards and four touchdowns. It looked easy, and maybe it was against this Green Bay secondary, but there’s no doubt that Mariota has elevated his game this season and has Top-5 upside each week in fantasy.

DeMarco Murray rushed 17 times for 123 yards and a touchdown, adding two receptions for 33 additional yards, and he also threw a 10-yard touchdown to Delanie Walker! The Titans could do no wrong in this game, and every fantasy-relevant player got in on the action. The Titans head to Indianapolis next week for what could easily be another offensive explosion.

Aaron Rodgers completed 31-of-51 passes for 371 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, plus added 27 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. The Titans got up 21-0 quickly, and the Packers were in come-from-behind mode the rest of the day. The fantasy stats continue to look good, but this offense is not working right now and the schedule is not easy for the Packers moving forward.

James Starks returned for this game and scored a short receiving touchdown, but there wasn’t much rushing in this game, and I can’t see the Packers being successful on the ground anytime soon.

Cowboys 35, Steelers 30

Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys’ offensive line destroyed the Steelers for 209 total yards and three touchdowns to put up the most fantasy points by a running back this season. It was quite the display of vision, cutting ability and speed from Elliott, and at this point, I don’t think any defense could hold him down for a full game.

Dak Prescott continued to impress in this game, and he made a great play on a 50-yard touchdown to Dez Bryant. Prescott has had to play under adverse situations this year, but not many, and to see him help bring his team back in a game where Ben Roethlisberger was dealing, there’s no going back to Tony Romo.

Roethlisberger was dealing in this game, as he completed 37-of-46 passes for 408 yards and three touchdowns. He’s been amazing at home, but not nearly so on the road. Those home/road splits will be put to the test the next two weeks though, as the Steelers head to Cleveland and Indianapolis. Those two opponents field two bad defenses that Roethlisberger should have no trouble throwing against.

Ladarius Green played limited snaps in this game, but did catch 3-of-4 targets for 30 yards. He likely will continue splitting time with Jesse James for now, as James caught all four of his targets for 59 yards.

Cardinals 23, 49ers 20

Carson Palmer completed 30-of-49 passes for 376 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He didn’t play well in this game and continues to leave many plays on the field.

Larry Fitzgerald was the main target for Palmer, with an amazing 18 passes going his way. He caught 12 for 133 yards, but didn’t find the end zone for his fourth straight week.

It appeared J.J. Nelson had moved up the depth chart, but he managed to fumble away his first reception and then had an easy reception bounce off his hands to be picked off. Add in the fact that Michael Floyd went on to have his best game of the season, catching 5-of-6 passes for 101 yards, and Nelson could easily be moving on back down the depth chart.

Colin Kaepernick completed 17-of-30 passes for 210 yards and one touchdown, plus rushed for 55 yards and another touchdown. This all came on the road against an Arizona defense that had a bye week to rest. Kaepernick is getting better and is worth keeping as a streaming option for the rest of the season.

Dolphins 31, Chargers 24

Ryan Tannehill played one of his better games in a long time, but it’s not going to show up as a big fantasy day. He did throw two touchdowns for the first time since Week 3, but this offense isn’t built on his arm; it is built on Jay Ajayi’s legs.

Ajayi didn’t have a great fantasy game, and Damien Williams ended up getting into the end zone twice, but Ajayi rattled off some big runs against a good Chargers’ run defense and again saw 20 touches for the fourth straight game.

Philip Rivers threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns, but also threw four interceptions in the fourth quarter. That’s a whole bunch of interceptions and a big chunk of negative fantasy points.

Melvin Gordon had trouble with Miami’s front seven, but he still ended up with 138 total yards on 29 touches. He continues to show a great ability to make chunk yardage once he finds a hole and no longer is completely touchdown dependent.

Seahawks 31, Patriots 24

Russell Wilson has now hit 26 and 25 fantasy points in his last two games, which are his two highest fantasy games of the season. He completed 25-of-37 passes for 348 yards and three touchdowns against New England on Sunday night. After playing much of the season with injuries, it looks as if Wilson is healthy again and he’s on fire.

Doug Baldwin caught all three of Wilson’s touchdown passes, which is reminiscent of last season when Baldwin went off in the second half of the year. There’s no reason these two should follow a similar pattern, but Wilson’s health now is no doubt good for Baldwin moving forward.

C.J. Prosise is talented, and it showed as he turned 24 touches into 153 total yards, including seven receptions for 87 yards. Thomas Rawls is returning soon, and Christine Michael, who saw a reduced role Sunday due to injury, isn’t going away, but Prosise should at least see most of the passing-down work for the Seahawks moving forward.

LeGarrette Blount rushed for three touchdowns and just missed a fourth at the end of the game. This game felt like it would be a dink-and-dunk effort from Tom Brady, who would be peppering Julian Edelman and James White with targets, but instead, Blount got 21 carries for 69 yards and the three touchdowns to lead the way in fantasy.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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