Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 2, 2016

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

A lot of stuff happened in Week 2 that is going to skew the way you see the fantasy landscape going forward, so let’s take a look at some of the most interesting morsels that we get to gnaw on for this week.

Thomas Rawls had a slow start against the Rams and then ended up hurting his ankle, so he finished with seven carries for negative seven yards and three receptions for 15 yards. That gave Christine Michael the lead role for the rest of the day, and he looked good for the most part. Michael ran 10 times for 60 yards and caught three of four targets for 26 yards. But he killed the final, possibly game-winning, drive with a fumble after a reception. Michael has shown well for a while now, and has been better than Rawls through the first two games, so there is a chance he takes over the job, especially if Rawls has to miss more time.

Dez Bryant isn’t dead! After he was barely part of the Week 1 game plan against the Giants, he was much more involved against Washington this week, leading the team with 12 targets and catching seven for 102 yards, while Cole Beasley was second in targets with just six targets. It should be a big relief for Bryant backers.

Ezekiel Elliott fumbled twice against Washington, but did score a touchdown and put together some good runs. He also was vultured by Alfred Morris for a touchdown, but that could be in part to Morris’ connection to Washington. Owner Jerry Jones said after the game that they have no concerns over the fumbles and will use him as normal. I think we can chalk these problems up to growing pains and missing much of the preseason. Elliott still has the best offensive line in the league, and Prescott is opening up the offense, which should help Elliott find more room.

With more downfield targets to Dez Bryant, Dak Prescott helped open up this offense saw his numbers improve. He still didn’t pass for a touchdown, but he did rush for one, while completing 22-of-30 passes for 292 yards. This game showed me a lot and makes Prescott a much safer fantasy play going forward.

Jimmy Garoppolo destroyed the Dolphins’ defense in the first half, completing 18-of-27 passes for 234 yards and three touchdowns before he was slammed on his shoulder, knocking him out of the game just before halftime. The initial prognosis appears to be better than most could have hoped. He has a sprained AC joint in his shoulder, which can be a 1-2 week injury. Garoppolo will miss the quick turnaround Thursday night game against Houston, but has a decent chance to return for Week 4 against Buffalo, who the Jets threw on with ease.

Danny Woodhead hurt his knee against the Jaguars and was carted off the field, but there is a chance it isn’t season-ending. The injury does appear to be to his MCL, which likely will keep him out for a few weeks at least. Melvin Gordon was the beneficiary after Woodhead left the field and had his first game ever with over 100 yards rushing, as he carried the ball 22 times for 102 yards and a touchdown, adding three receptions for 18 yards as well. This sets Gordon up for workhorse status, and the Chargers face the Colts and Saints over the next two weeks. Those should be productive games for Gordon.

The post-Keenan Allen ACL target distribution wasn’t abundant because Phillip Rivers was on target, throwing four touchdowns on just 17 receptions, but the breakdown was Travis Benjamin (6), Tyrell Williams (6), Antonio Gates (5), Dontrelle Inman (3), and Melvin Gordon (3). Benjamin was the big fantasy stud, scoring two touchdowns on six receptions for 115 yards, but Gates and Williams also scored a touchdown each. I think these top three should remain the top three, especially while Danny Woodhead is out. Each will retain fantasy value as targets should continue to be funneled their ways, respectively.

Rookie Corey Coleman started the day fast, hooking up with Josh McCown for two first-quarter touchdowns on his way to five receptions for 104 yards and those aforementioned touchdowns. Unfortunately, McCown was ravaged throughout the game, and even though he managed to tough it out, he might not be playing again for a while. The Browns are “bracing themselves for possible bad news” regarding McCown’s shoulder according to Mike Silver. That would put Cody Kessler in as the starter and hurt the Browns’ offensive fantasy players. Keep an eye on the news, but right now, things aren’t looking good in Cleveland.

The Ravens backfield remains a cluster to deal with in fantasy, but at least it’s down to just Justin Forsett and Terrance West at the moment. But neither did anything worthwhile in Week 2, as Forsett touched the ball 17 times for 46 yards and West touched it 12 times for 45 yards. And when Kenneth Dixon returns, he is sure to get work so the team can see if he’s worth playing ahead of these two. I would say to grab Dixon, but I’m assuming it will just be even more difficult for one back to emerge when there are three in the group.

Dennis Pitta is back baby! Pitta hadn’t played for a millennium after two broken old-man hips, but he’s back and just led the Ravens in targets with 12, doubling up the next highest on the team and catching nine of those targets for 102 yards. The Ravens are going to throw the ball a lot this season, and Pitta appears to still be high on Joe Flacco’s list. I’ll be putting in some waiver claims on Mr. Pitta.

Mike Wallace caught two touchdowns, both of the shorter variety, seven and 17 yards, which is good to see that he doesn’t need the long bomb to score. He did just see six targets though, tying Steve Smith for second on the team, but as Smith and Breshad Perriman get going, we could see some pretty spread-out targets in this offense.

The idea that the Jaguars would be more successful in the run game and defensively this season, making Blake Bortles throw fewer times, hasn’t come to fruition yet. Chris Ivory being hurt is one reason, but the Jaguars’ defense is the main one so far. Philip Rivers was able to toss four touchdowns and Melvin Gordon ran another one in, which of course put Bortles into throw every down mode much like last season. Unfortunately for Allen Robinson owners, Bortles’ garbage-time laden 329 yards passing for two touchdowns and two interceptions only gave Robinson five targets, which he caught three of for 54 yards. That will be remedied though, as Robinson is just too good to stay down, and as long as Bortles is passing 40-50 times a game, there will be plenty of fantasy stats to go around, so if your league’s ARob owner is getting sweaty, hand him a towel and a trade.

Devonta Freeman had a nice rushing game, with 93 yards on 17 carries, but didn’t see one target all game, while Tevin Coleman saw caught his two targets for 25 yards and also ran in a 12-yard touchdown. They once again split touches fairly evenly, but both played well enough that this split should remain as is. The lack of targets for Freeman is worrisome, though I believe they will return, but still be divided up with Coleman. We’ll need an injury or for one player to really outplay the other for one of these guys to be a top every-week running back.

Kenny Britt is starting to make enough noise now after two games that we might want to pay attention. He led the Rams with 10 targets today, catching six for 94 yards. And last week, he caught four passes for 67 yards. As teams do their best to stop Todd Gurley, Britt should continue to see single coverage. His upside isn’t great in the Rams’ offense, but this Seattle team is of course one of the better defenses in the league and he was able to put up good numbers.

Carson Palmer was able to pick Tampa Bay apart for 308 yards and three touchdowns, and Larry Fitzgerald remained his No. 1 target with 11, while Michael Floyd was a distant second with six. John and Jaron Brown seem to be hurting each other, with John seeing three targets and Jaron two, which he happened to turn into a long touchdown, but you can’t rely on anyone who saw just two targets. Right now, I think you can only trust Fitzgerald and Floyd for the Cardinals’ receivers.

The Cam Newton-to-Kelvin Benjamin connection is working out quite well so far. Newton put up a huge game, throwing for over 350 yards and four touchdowns, with two of those touchdowns going to Benjamin. After two games, I think we can feel pretty good about Benjamin being the No. 1 receiver in this offense, which does push Devin Funchess down the totem pole, but after watching Ted Ginn step out of bounds on what should have been a touchdown and flub a punt to allow a one-yard touchdown from Blaine Gabbert, I could see Funchess getting more work next week at the expense of Ginn.

Jacob Tamme led the Falcons in targets with eight, catching five for 75 yards and a touchdown. This won’t be a common occurrence for Tamme, as Mohamed Sanu, Julio Jones and the two running backs will see more targets than they did today. He’s of course worth rostering in 2TE leagues though.

The Dolphins showed some pluck and a little moxie as they made a futile effort to make up ground on the Patriots, which helped Jarvis Landry to 10-of-13 receptions for 137 yards and DeVante Parker to 8-of-13 receptions for 106 yards. Of course this came in garbage time, but at one point, garbage time bled into real football-game time, so Miami had something going there, and it’s good to see Parker put up good numbers and tie for the lead in targets coming off of an injury. This game gives me much more confidence using him next week against the poor Cleveland defense.

The Dolphins lost Arian Foster to a groin injury, and Ryan Tannehill ended up leading the team in rushing, while Kenyan Drake rushed for a touchdown on one of his two carries. Jay Ajayi is kind of next in line, as he saw five carries and four targets, but he also lost a fumble. There’s a good chance Foster will be out for at least next week and possibly longer, so Ajayi has a little value now, but he’ll need to play better to become the clear lead back.

Doug Martin tweaked his hamstring against Arizona and didn’t return to the field. Charles Sims took over for him, but couldn’t do much against the Cardinals. The Bucs face the Rams, Broncos and Carolina in the next three weeks before their bye, so Sims’ upside isn’t going to be great even if Martin is out, but he should be useful in PPR leagues as the lead back.

Ameer Abdullah hurt his foot against the Titans and was seen in a walking boot after the game. If he can’t go next week against the Packers, Theo Riddick would be the starter, but Dwayne Washington would see extra work between the tackles as Riddick is at his best in the passing game.

Marvin Jones caught 8-of-11 targets for 118 yards to lead the Lions, while Golden Tate saw nine targets, but only caught two for 13 yards. I think it’s clear that Jones in the No. 1 receiver, but I also don’t believe this is reflective of Tate for the season. I could see making offers for Tate to see if you can pry him away from your league-mate.

Jonathan Stewart has a hurt hamstring and ankle, which doesn’t sound great for Week 3 when they face a tough Vikings defense. If Stewart can’t go, I expect Cameron Artis-Payne to be activated, but Fozzy Whittaker had a nice game today, gaining 100 yards on 16 carries and catching 3-of-4 targets for 31 yards. We would probably see a committee with Mike Tolbert in there as well, but I believe Fozzy has won the start at least.

What do we do with Todd Gurley? After facing the Seahawks, he has 36 carries for 98 yards and two receptions for 14 yards through two games. Of course, facing the Seahawks isn’t the easiest task and when your quarterback is beyond awful it’s hard to get the running game going, but how much is this going to change? Well, Gurley is still great, so he will have better games, but he also has a tough schedule. I think if you can get somebody you like then go for it, but don’t just give him away.

Doug Baldwin will have an MRI on his knee, and he also said he played through back spasms on Sunday. He did play through the knee injury, so there is hope that he just needs a couple days’ worth of rest, but keep an eye on this. I am extremely high on Baldwin despite his down game today, so if it looks like he is going to be okay, I’d send out some offers while he’s coming off a bad game and hurting.

Giovani Bernard was the only Bengals player who had a strong game against Pittsburgh, as he caught 9-of-11 targets for 100 yards and a touchdown along with five carries for 17 yards. This is of course due to game flow and the Steelers’ strength against the run, but it’s hard not to see Bernard as the more dynamic fantasy player than Jeremy Hill. Of course, if the Bengals have a lead, Hill is the guy you want. It’s this way with plenty of teams, and it can be annoying.

Donte Moncrief appeared to suffer a concussion against the Broncos, and if he is unable to go next week at home against the Chargers, Phillip Dorsett will be a must-own for that game.

Adrian Peterson had to leave Sunday night’s game due to a knee injury. He had just 26 total yards on 14 touches before leaving, which was right in line with what he produced in Week 1. At this point, you may be better off without him, but hopefully you have Jerick McKinnon backing him up. If Peterson is out for any extended amount of time, McKinnon becomes a high-priority waiver pickup.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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