Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 3, 2016

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Marvin Jones put on a show, catching 6-of-8 targets for 205 yards and two touchdowns. He’s not the fastest receiver in the world, but he creates space and makes the tough catch, and now has 18 receptions for 408 yards and two touchdowns through three games. He’s not Calvin Johnson, but he’s playing extremely well right now and outtargeting the other Detroit receivers.

I think we can call off the search party for Aaron Rodgers’ fantasy greatness. In the first half against the Lions, he threw four touchdown passes and looked like the Aaron Rodgers we are used to. Two of those touchdowns went to Jordy Nelson, who also continues to look better. The Lions did come back, and Rodgers and company quieted down in the second half after their first-half explosion, but they obviously let off the gas. I expect Rodgers and company to up their game moving forward.

DeMarco Murray rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries, which is the first time a Titans’ running back has topped 100 yards since Chris Johnson in 2013. Murray also caught all five of his targets for 41 additional yards. Derrick Henry appeared to be sharing the workload early, but he ended up with 10 carries for 45 yards and no targets. Henry isn’t going away, but Murray is just outplaying him right now and should continue to hold that edge.

I thought for sure we would see Paxton Lynch sooner than later this year, but I have been wrong so far, and now after Trevor Siemian’s huge game in Cincinnati, it’s going to take a big slump from Siemian for Lynch to be needed. Siemian completed 23-of-35 passes for 312 yards and four touchdowns against a usually tough Cincinnati defense, giving both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas over 100 yards receiving, with Sanders adding two touchdowns and Thomas one. It was a masterful display and should be something he can build on moving forward.

C.J. Anderson had little room to run in Cincinnati, which is a little concerning since the Broncos were close or held a lead all game. He’s not as dynamic as some running backs, but has the ability to play better than he did today, especially with Trevor Siemian looking like a more-than-competent quarterback.

Eddie Lacy had a nice game, rushing 17 times for 103 yards, but he again couldn’t find the end zone. All the touchdowns were spent through Aaron Rodgers arm, and that may have been by design just to get him going in a good matchup. Lacy will get his touchdowns and would be a someone I’d want in a trade.

Marcus Mariota has shown flashes this season, but continues to play unevenly at times and can’t stop turning the ball over. This week was his worst game of the season, as he completed just 17-of-33 passes for 214 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions and also lost a fumble. The absence of Delanie Walker hurt, but against an Oakland pass defense that had been scorched the first two games, Mariota needed a better showing.

Derek Carr had a ho-hum statistical game in Oakland’s win over the Titans, completing 21-of-35 passes for 249 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Amari Cooper did have a couple dropped passes and a touchdown to Clive Walford was called back on a holding call, so there was upward mobility there. It’s not great seeing Cooper have trouble with drops again, but I’m not going to get too hung up on it. He’s too good to have a few drops slow him down much.

The Lions got down quickly as their defense was humiliated in the first half by Aaron Rodgers, but Matthew Stafford hooked up with Marvin Jones on big play after big play and completed 28-of-41 passes for 385 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. He’s a tough sit in fantasy now, especially if Detroit’s defense can’t keep the score closer.

Kelvin Benjamin saw one target all game against the Vikings and finished with no receptions. The Vikings’ defense took him out of the game and really took out the whole team as they intercepted Cam Newton three times on their way to a road win in Carolina. Benjamin should have had more targets, but the Panthers just weren’t ready for this defense and were out of synch all game. Expect them to take out their frustrations on the Falcons next week.

I wish I could tell you when Giovani Bernard or Jeremy Hill would have a good fantasy game, but I continue to fail miserably. This week against the best defense in the league, Hill rushed 17 times for 97 yards and two touchdowns, while Bernard totaled 44 yards on 10 touches. For the most part, you just have to throw Hill out there because you don’t know when he’ll get a goal-line look, and if you are in PPR leagues, you do the same with Bernard.

Latavius Murray scored an early touchdown, but ended up with just 10 rushing attempts for 37 yards on top of that, while DeAndre Washington rushed six times for 57 yards and Jalen Richard six times for 28 yards with each back getting one target and one reception each. This backfield is a bit of a mess, but Murray has scored a touchdown in each game despite not topping 57 rushing yards in any of them. If you can sell Murray based on his early touchdown production, I would.

Kirk Cousins made some bad decisions in Washington’s win over the Giants, but he moved the ball much better than he had during the first two games of the year. He completed 21-of-35 passes for 296 yards and two touchdowns, but once again had trouble in the red zone. Cousins is a shaky fantasy starter at best, but in the right matchups, he has the ability to put up big numbers.

Carson Wentz is pretty darn good at football. He has yet to throw an interception in over 100 passes. Wentz threw for over 300 yards against Pittsburgh – his first 300-yard game – and completed two touchdown passes. The Steelers had only allowed one touchdown pass in the first two games, and Wentz made them look silly. He gets a bye next week and then faces a Detroit team that just gave up four touchdown passes to Aaron Rodgers in the first half.

Carson Palmer threw four interceptions and barely completed over half of his passes as the Bills sacked him five times in a stunner of a loss. Palmer didn’t look good at all. He was inaccurate, as you might be able to tell from the four interceptions, but so much depends on his protection. Palmer, as you know is not mobile. He needs a clean pocket, and the Bills didn’t give him that. When assessing his fantasy viability, be sure to look into how much quarterback pressure opponents give on average.

The only bright spot for Arizona’s passing game, or maybe just fantasy players, was John Brown showing up. He caught 6-of-11 targets for 70 yards, which isn’t crazy, but he had just two receptions for 22 yards coming into this game. If he was dropped in your league, help him back up onto your team.

David Johnson is the best running back in the game, and it’s not even close. In a game in which the Cardinals looked putrid against a Bills defense playing well, Johnson looked like the best player on the field. Even as Johnson was corralled for much of the first half, he seemed to always tack on a yard or two after it seemed like he had been stopped, and when things opened up a bit more for him, he scored two rushing touchdowns and then finished the day with 111 total yards. Just pray for his health and keep starting him.

Theo Riddick showed why he’s not the lead running back as he rushed 10 times for nine yards, while Dwayne Washington rushed 10 times for 38 yards. The Packers are strong against the run, so Washington’s numbers aren’t horrible and when you compare them to Riddick’s, well, they’re pretty awesome. It looks like Ameer Abdullah is probably out for the season, so grab Washington if you can.

Chris Ivory out-touched T.J. Yeldon 13 to eight, but neither did much, as Jacksonville’s offensive line did not play well against the Ravens. I expect Ivory to be the lead back moving forward though, and he should get touchdown chances.

Odell Beckham Jr. got the best of Josh Norman this week, catching 7-of-11 targets for 121 yards, but once again not coming down with a touchdown. I’m all aboard this Giants offense still, so I’d be making offers for Beckham and Eli Manning where they fit.

LeSean McCoy looked like the Shady we all know and love against a tough Cardinals defense on Sunday. He rushed 17 times for 110 yards and two touchdowns, gashing the defense with big runs. With no strong backup like last season, McCoy’s touchdowns should continue to show.

Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson ended up splitting work fairly evenly, with Crowell getting 15 carries for 79 yards and one target, but no receptions, and Duke Johnson ran the ball 10 times for 69 yards and caught 3-of-7 targets for just 12 yards. That is the biggest workload for Johnson so far, and with Cody Kessler in there, I expect these two to continue getting a lot of touches.

Terrelle Pryor was used extensively this week and really was the Browns’ offense. As a receiver, he caught 8-of-14 targets for 144 yards, but he also rotated in as quarterback, rushing for a touchdown and 21 yards on four carries, while also completing 3-of-5 passes for 35 yards. All together, it was a big day for the athletic freak and even if you take away his rushing and passing, he put together a big receiving game, even with Kessler at the helm. Pryor’s a must-pickup.

Jimmy Graham caught 6-of-9 targets for 100 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers and now appears to be fully back. There’s a good chance he’s on waivers after his slow start. It’s time to pick him up.

Travis Kelce caught 6-of-7 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown against the Jets and could have had an even bigger game if Kansas City hadn’t gone into clock-killing mode as Ryan Fitzpatrick decided the Chiefs should have the ball more often. Kelce is a beast when targeted, but it just doesn’t happen as often as we’d like to see.

Eric Decker’s streak of 15 games in a row with 80 yards and/or a touchdown has ended. Against Kansas City, he caught just 1-of-6 targets for 31 yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick was awful.

Russell Wilson sprained his knee and will have tests to see the extent of the damage, but all indications are that he will play Week 4.

T.Y Hilton was easily Andrew Luck’s favorite target with Donte Moncrief out, and Hilton didn’t disappoint, catching 8-of-11 targets for 174 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. With Moncrief out a few more weeks, expect Hilton to continue being a target hog and fantasy asset.

Tavon Austin came into this game with an amazing nine receptions on 22 targets for 63 yards, but was much more efficient this week against the Buccaneers, catching 5-of-8 targets for 82 yards and a touchdown and adding on two carries for 22 yards. He’s a volatile player for getting so many targets, but he does get them, and hopefully, this game gets him moving in the right direction.

Todd Gurley rushed 27 times for 85 yards and two touchdowns. The touchdowns were much needed by his fantasy backers, but he continued to be inefficient with a 3.1 yards per carry average. The Rams actually scored touchdowns this week, so hopefully they will continue moving the ball so Gurley can get the ball near the goal line some more, but this was just one game and they get the Cardinals next week.

Ryan Mathews was hurt early in the game against Pittsburgh, and Wendell Smallwood took over, rushing 17 times for 79 yards and a touchdown. Mathews’ injury could be his ankle he has had trouble with, but with the bye week coming up, he has extra time to heal. If it happened to be more severe, Smallwood is a must-add and even if it’s not, he should be on your fantasy bench if you can fit him.

Jeremy Langford was carted off with an ankle injury against the Cowboys. He actually had a few good runs in this game, but this injury should push Jordan Howard into the lead position until we know the extent.

Brian Hoyer isn’t good, but he sure doesn’t mind chucking the ball. He passed 49 times, completing 30 for 317 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys on Sunday night. His team was also trailing by double-digit points from early on. Zach Miller was the big benefactor this week, catching 8-of-9 passes for 78 yards and two touchdowns. We’ll see if that connection remains a thing moving forward, but it’s hard not to believe it’s going to help Miller out, who had 47 yards and no touchdowns going into this game.

Ezekiel Elliott owners like his 30 carries for 140 yards Sunday night, but they are in no way pleased with short touchdown runs by Dak Prescott, Lance Dunbar and Alfred Morris. I understand fantasy players want a lot of different things than NFL coaches do, but it seems rewarding your starting running back with a bunny touchdown run is the least you can do when you give them 30 carries in a game.

Dak Prescott continues to play mistake free football, but now, he has an actual touchdown pass to go along with no turnovers! He completed a slant at the goal line to Dez Bryant for his first passing touchdown, but also had a short rushing touchdown, his second of the season. It was good to see Prescott run the ball a bit more this week, four attempts for 36 yards and that touchdowns, because if he is going to continue to play conservatively, us fantasy players need those yards and touchdowns on the ground badly. So this was a great sign for Prescott. Even in a game where they ran the ball 37 times with their running backs, he still finished as a Top-5 fantasy quarterback.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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