Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 15, 2016

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Packers 30, Bears 27
Aaron Rodgers completed 19-of-31 passes for 252 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions, but Davante Adams dropped two absolute gimme touchdown passes on different drives and Rodgers was obviously hurting, so all in all it was a good performance from Rodgers. It just was not the one you wanted in your fantasy playoffs.

Ty Montgomery was the big fantasy stud in this one as he ripped off big gainer after big gainer, including 61, 36 and 26 yards at a time. He ended up rushing 16 times for 162 yards and two touchdowns. He’s the no-doubt starter now, finally, but does get a tough matchup with the Vikings next week – though they did just allow 161 rushing yards to the Colts, including two touchdown rushes from Robert Turbin.

Matt Barkley completed 30-of-43 passes for 362 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions along with a lost fumble. He makes mistakes, but also gives his offense a chance to score. He’s now had 300-yard games in half of his starts and should again have some upside against Washington next week.

Jordan Howard is finishing his rookie season strongly. This week, he rushed 17 times for 90 yards and a touchdown, plus caught all four of his targets for 23 yards. He now has 77 or more rushing yards in each of his last seven games, including four touchdowns.

Alshon Jeffery returned this week from suspension, and after an early drop, he was not seen again until later in the game when he started seeing a flurry of targets from Barkley, catching 6-of-9 for 89 yards and a touchdown.

Texans 21, Jaguars 20
Brock Osweiler was benched in the second quarter, which was about 20 quarters too long, but it finally happened after Osweiler completed 6-of-11 passes for 48 yards and two bad interceptions.

Tom Savage replaced Osweiler and completed 23-of-36 passes for 260 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. He was a noticeable upgrade on Osweiler, mainly because he appears to have some confidence and he also made a special effort to get the ball to DeAndre Hopkins, who ended up with a league high 17 targets, catching eight for 87 yards. This wasn’t a blowup game, but Hopkins has only had four standard scoring games with more points this year, and those were from his four touchdown receptions.

Blake Bortles completed 12-of-28 passes for 92 yards with one interception. He did get a one-yard touchdown, but as a passer, he was abysmal. He had eight fantasy points. If Bortles hadn’t had that rushing touchdown, he would have had two fantasy points. Ninety two passing yards is just sad.

Bills 33, Browns 13
LeSean McCoy continues to show he needs to be up there with Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott when you talk about the elite running backs of the league. McCoy rushed 19 times for 153 yards and two touchdowns, plus caught three passes for 16 additional yards. He was the motor behind the offense and had such an easy time against the pitiful Cleveland defense that Tyrod Taylor only threw the ball 24 times.

Tyrod Taylor didn’t have a bad game, but he also didn’t need to do a whole bunch. He completed 17-of-24 passes for 174 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions, while adding seven rushes for 49 yards. His future with Buffalo is still up in the air. He’s had an uneven season.

Robert Griffin III completed 17-of-28 passes for 196 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions, with eight carries for 48 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown run was his best play of the day and probably still his best bet for fantasy relevance moving forward because his accuracy is still a work in progress.

Ravens 27, Eagles 26
The running back situation in Baltimore continues to be in flux and will probably continue to be a tough situation to predict. Last week, Kenneth Dixon was the lead back, whereas this week, Terrance West got off to the hot start and kept seeing the ball. West rushed 13 times for 77 yards and caught 4-of-4 targets for 45 yards, while Dixon rushed nine times for 36 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown helped Dixon’s fantasy backers, but they were likely expecting more work from him.

Joe Flacco completed 16-of-30 passes for 206 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. It was a good performance, especially considering the wind was a factor. He will again be an option next week against the Steelers.

Carson Wentz had a nice rushing touchdown, but completed just 22-of-42 passes for 170 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. The Eagles’ offense is a mess when they have to rely on the passing game right now.

Ryan Mathews was the fantasy star for the Eagles this week, rushing 20 times for 128 yards and a touchdown, and catching his only target for five yards. He has nine touchdowns on the season despite playing with nagging injuries much of the time. If he could ever stay healthy, he could put up huge numbers.

Titans 19, Chiefs 17
Marcus Mariota completed 19-of-33 passes for 241 yards, no touchdowns and one interception, plus fumbled once and rushed once for negative two yards. The Titans were led by their ground game in Kansas City as Mariota was not very good. Weather and a good defense had a lot to do with that of course.

DeMarco Murray rushed 18 times for 89 yards and caught 5-of-6 targets for 52 yards, but Derrick Henry was able to rush for both of the Titans touchdowns on nine carries for 58 yards. He’s still not getting the work we need for consistent fantasy value, but his role around the goal line seems to be expanding.

Alex Smith completed just 15-of-28 passes for 163 yards and an interception. His 10-yard rushing touchdown was really his only notable play on the day, as a quick 14-0 lead put Kansas City into sleep mode.

Tyreek Hill rushed for a 68-yard touchdown early, but didn’t catch any of the three targets he saw, while Jeremy Maclin led the team with seven targets, catching six for 82 yards – over half of Smith’s yardage . It appears Maclin is fully back and that the Chiefs are trying to get him going, which will hurt Hill as the third target in a conservative offense.

Giants 17, Lions 6
Eli Manning completed 20-of-28 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns in this contest. He looked good early, completing 11 straight passes and playing more within himself, but overall it was an unimpressive outing. He does take on the Eagles next week, which he threw four touchdowns against in Week 9.

Paul Perkins showed much better than Rashad Jennings this week, but Jennings remained the lead back with 18 carries for 38 yards to Perkins’ 11 carries for 56 yards. Shane Vereen was the preferred receiving back, catching 2-of-4 targets for nine yards. Again, the Giants’ running back situation remains muddled.

Sterling Shepard continues to not see enough work to have a high upside, but he does have five touchdowns in his last seven games. He caught one against the Eagles the last time they met as well.

The Giants’ defense played well and forced Matthew Stafford to throw the ball 39 times, which he completed 24 of for 273 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. Stafford’s finger didn’t appear to slow him down much, as his throws were generally on target. I think we can give the Giants’ defense most of the credit this week.

Colts 34, Vikings 6
Andrew Luck completed 21-of-28 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns against a Vikings team that had allowed just three touchdowns over their last three games. Luck likely would have had a much bigger game if Minnesota had put up any kind of a fight, but he was able to skip out late due to the blowout.

The Colts imposed their will on the ground, as Frank Gore rushed 26 times for 101 yards and caught 4-of-4 targets for 14 yards, while Robert Turbin rushed seven times for 32 yards and two touchdowns, plus caught 2-of-2 targets for 22 yards. Turbin’s vulturing ways will not be applauded by any Gore owners, but Gore topping 100 yards rushing against the Vikings is still a decent consolation prize.

Sam Bradford threw the ball 42 times and completed a big 32 of those for 291 yards, but he couldn’t find the end zone and added an interception in there. He had the opportunities against a weak defense and couldn’t come through.

Adrian Peterson rushed six times for 22 yards and lost a fumble. In a shotgun offense that relies on short passes, Peterson doesn’t really have a place right now, whereas Jerick McKinnon was the lead back in the second half and caught 9-of-9 targets for 59 yards. The Vikings face the Packers next week, where McKinnon would be the best back to feature, but the Vikings will likely try again to get Peterson going and will likely have trouble doing so, especially if the Packers put up any early points.

Adam Thielen went down with a neck injury in this game and was replaced by Charles Johnson, who had a decent game, catching his five targets for 50 yards.

Steelers 24, Bengals 20
Chris Boswell is your fantasy leader in this game, so that tells you about all you need to know. He kicked six field goals, while Ben Roethlisberger threw one touchdown.

Roethlisberger wasn’t bad in this game, and he made some pretty throws, but just couldn’t get points on the board. Of course, playing on the road has been tough for him this season. Expect a better fantasy game at home against Baltimore next week.

Brandon LaFell and Jeremy Hill led the way for the Bengals in fantasy, but neither put up big numbers as the Steelers shut them down in the second half. Hill was able to find the end zone for his third straight game, but only totaled 43 rushing yards on 20 carries. He was stuffed three times at the goal line, which Andy Dalton finally cleaned up on fourth-and-goal with a QB sneak.

Saints 48, Cardinals 41
Drew Brees had thrown zero touchdowns and six interceptions in his last two games, i.e. my fantasy playoffs, so of course, he goes to Arizona against one of the better defenses and completes 37-of-48 passes for 389 yards and four touchdowns. Sometimes fantasy football can make you quite perturbed.

The most yards the Cardinals had allowed to a quarterback this season were 271 to Kirk Cousins. Brees beat that by 118 yards. The most yards they had allowed to a wide receiver were 103 last week to Jarvis Landry and Brandin Cooks beat that by 83 yards, as he caught 7-of-8 targets for 186 yards and two touchdowns.

Mark Ingram looked good, but Tim Hightower saw all the goal-line looks and scored two rushing touchdowns. Ingram, who needed a touchdown for incentive bonus money, was not happy on the sidelines. I don’t care about the money, but I still think your best running back should get the work near the goal line.

Carson Palmer had one of his better games of the season, completing 28-of-40 passes for 318 yards and two touchdowns. Of course, playing at home against the Saints helps, but Palmer has looked atrocious at times recently, so it’s good to see him put up a good game.

David Johnson continued his march into the record books as he rushed 12 times for 53 yards and two touchdowns, while catching 4-of-5 targets for 55 yards. His 108 total yards make for his 14th straight game where he topped 100 total yards, which sets a new NFL record for most 100-yard games to start a season. He has 17 touchdowns on the season, but does face Seattle in Seattle next week. It will be a tough matchup, but he’s shown that he is matchup proof.

Falcons 41, 49ers 13
What happens when the highest-scoring team in the league takes on the team that allows the most points in the league? Well, this. The big fantasy winner for the Falcons this week was Devonta Freeman, who was the forgotten man last week. This week, he had huge holes to run through, and when he didn’t, he just bounced through poor 49ers’ tackling on his way to 139 yards and three touchdowns on 20 carries, plus picked up an additional 16 yards on two receptions.

Matt Ryan didn’t need to do much in this one, as he completed 17-of-23 targets for 286 yards and two touchdowns. This game was never in doubt, so the Falcons ran the ball 40 times to just the 23 pass attempts, yet Ryan still will be a top fantasy quarterback this week.

Colin Kaepernick completed 20-of-33 passes for 183 yards with two touchdowns and rushed three times for 21 yards. His touchdown passes went to Garrett Celek and Rod Streater. Those are the names Kaepernick is throwing to.

Carlos Hyde rushed 13 times for 71 yards and continues to show that he has ability, even in this San Francisco offense, but he just doesn’t get enough work in the passing game, which shuts him down in the second half of most games because the 49ers are usually trailing.

Patriots 16, Broncos 3
Tom Brady completed 16-of-32 passes for 188 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. Playing against the Denver defense will do that to you, even if your name is Tom Brady. Next week, he gets to face the Jets’ putrid pass defense.

Dion Lewis rushed 18 times for 95 yards and caught two passes for nine yards, while LeGarrette Blount rushed 17 times for 31 yards and a touchdown. Bill Belichick wanted the quicker, shiftier back against the Broncos, and that worked for the most part. Lewis looked good and all the way back. Blount is going to continue to be the bruiser and salt-the-earth back, but Lewis should continue to be used extensively.

Trevor Siemian completed 25-of-40 passes for 282 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. The numbers look better than the real football, as the Patriots didn’t worry about defending against the Broncos’ non-existent run game and shut down the passing game.

Raiders 19, Chargers 16
Derek Carr completed 19-of-30 passes for 213 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He is still working solely from the shotgun due to his finger, but appears to be able to throw the ball fine. He gets the Colts at home next week and should be able to open up the offense a bit more.

Latavius Murray rushed 13 times for 81 yards and caught his lone target for 11 yards, but was stuffed at the goal line twice. Jalen Richard had 11 touches for 49 yards, and DeAndre Washington had six for 34, so Murray saw a decline in his share of running back touches, as he had 22, 23 and 22 in his last three games.

Philip Rivers completed 17-of-29 passes for 206 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. The interception ended the game, and he’s now thrown 11 in his last five games. His offensive line is not helping him out of late, but he has always forced passes where they shouldn’t be forced.

Kenneth Farrow as not good in his spot start with Melvin Gordon out, being outplayed even by Ronnie Hillman. Farrow touched the ball 17 times for 53 yards and lost a critical fumble. Next week in Cleveland, let’s hope that Melvin Gordon can somehow return.

Dontrelle Inman continues to be the receiving leader on the Chargers, as he caught 5-of-8 targets for 68 yards, but Hunter Henry and Travis Benjamin were the two to find the end zone this week.

Henry continues to outplay Antonio Gates and now has seven touchdowns and four in his last five games, despite only having 10 receptions. Henry now ranks fifth all-time in touchdowns by a rookie tight end. Gates is still holding out hope of breaking Tony Gonzalez’s tight end touchdown record, but Gates needs three in the last two games.

Cowboys 26, Buccaneers 20
Dak Prescott was an amazing 32-of-36 for 279 yards, no interceptions and no touchdown passes, but he did run for a touchdown to give him a Top-5 fantasy quarterback finish so far this week. It was a solid game, but once again Ezekiel Elliott took the lead in fantasy.

Elliot rushed 23 times for 159 yards and one touchdown, while catching all three of his targets for an additional 29 yards. Elliott now has 14 total touchdowns and 1,902 total yards. He has Rookie of the Year wrapped up.

Dez Bryant rebounded from his poor showing last week with 8-of-10 receptions for 82 yards. He’s still the main target for Prescott, but his upside isn’t quite what it once was, as Elliott has taken over a lot of the scoring for the Cowboys.

Jameis Winston started off slowly with two interceptions that the Cowboys converted into points, but led his team back with two touchdown passes to Cameron Brate and Adam Humphries. But in the end, Winston was just too inconsistent against the strong run game and high completion rate of Dallas.

Cameron Brate continues to show he’s not just a dump-off target, as he caught 5-of-8 targets for 73 yards and a touchdown, once again putting up more fantasy points than the slumping Mike Evans.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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