Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 1, 2016

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Ravens 13, Bills 7

The Ravens’ defense held the Bills to a total of 160 yards and 11 first downs. They held Buffalo’s usually strong rushing offense to 2.7 yards per carry and the team’s passing offense to four yards per pass attempt.

Steve Smith Sr. led the Ravens in targets with nine and caught five, but for just 19 total yards. I didn’t think he’d even be able to play in this game a few months ago, so I’ll take this is a good sign going forward.

Mike Wallace was second in targets for the Ravens with six, but he did more with those than Smith, catching three for 91 yards and a touchdown. Wallace must feel good to be back with a quarterback with a big arm like his days in Pittsburgh. He probably will be a boom-or-bust fantasy player, but at least there’s some boom in there now.

Dennis Pitta got the start at tight end and caught 3-of-4 targets for 39 yards. His four targets were third on the team and a good sign that he’s in the lead for the tight end production as long as he’s healthy.

Tyrod Taylor and the Bills’ offense never got out of the muck and barely made a dent in fantasy this week. There will be better days, but Taylor went 15-of-22 for 111 yards with zero touchdowns and zero interceptions, and rushed five times for just 11 yards. After the game, Rex Ryan said he was worried about Taylor’s safety, and I think this is something to be concerned about. If Taylor isn’t getting fantasy points on the ground, his fantasy prospects take a big hit.

There weren’t many plays for the Bills, but the best fantasy player for them this week was LeSean McCoy. He had 16 carries for 58 yards and a goal-line touchdown, as well as four receptions on four targets for 12 yards. He was stuffed on a couple goal-line carries before getting in on fourth down. He gets a tough matchup on Thursday next week against the Jets, but should be productive this year now that he doesn’t have Karlos Williams stealing touchdowns.

Packers 27, Jaguars 23

Aaron Rodgers got off to a slow start, but then he began making plays that only Aaron Rodgers makes. He finished the day 20-of-34 for 199 yards and two touchdowns, plus another score on the ground. That rushing touchdown boosted him up into the Top-10 quarterbacks so far this week and was something we didn’t see last season. I think we can feel safe with the key players in this offense going forward.

Jordy Nelson led the team with nine targets and caught six for 32 yards and a touchdown. With that many receptions, Nelson usually has more yardage, but I think we can be happy with the touchdown and expect even more as he gets back into rhythm with Rodgers.

Skinny Eddie Lacy looked good, but didn’t get the work his fantasy backers would hope for. He had 14 carries for 61 yards along with one reception for 17 yards. James Starks had five touches for just 13 yards. Lacy will continue to lead the team in running back touches, and he should have more easy touchdown opportunities on the way.

T.J. Yeldon got the start for the Jaguars and a full complement of touches because Chris Ivory couldn’t play due to an illness. Yeldon’s fantasy stats got a boost from a nice touchdown run, but overall, it wasn’t a strong game for him, as he rushed 21 times for just 39 yards and caught four passes for 30 yards. The Jaguars need the one-two punch of Ivory between the tackles and Yeldon on the edges in the passing game.

Chiefs 33, Chargers 27

The biggest fantasy news to come out of this game is of course the season-ending ACL injury to Keenan Allen. Allen had already caught 6-of-7 targets for 63 yards before his injury and looked to be off to a great start to this season, which makes it even tougher to lose him for the year. If eihter Travis Benjamin or Tyrell Williams is on your waiver wire, each has more value now.

Travis Benjamin ended up leading the team in targets with eight, which he caught seven of for just 32 yards, while Danny Woodhead was second in targets with seven, catching five for 31 yards and a touchdown to go along with seven carries for 31 yards. Much like last season, when Allen went down, Woodhead saw an uptick in targets, and that could be happening once again this year.

Melvin Gordon had a nice game with two rushing touchdowns, but Woodhead was on the field much more than Gordon. Much will depend on game flow, but the Chargers did have a lead for much of the game and Woodhead was still on the field more. It’s good to see Gordon getting goal-line carries, which wasn’t a given last season, but the two touchdowns don’t mean he’s on his way to a huge season.

Alex Smith brought Kansas City from behind to win and put together good fantasy numbers in the process. He completed 34-of-48 passes for 363 yards with two touchdowns and one interception and won the game in overtime on a rushing touchdown. Smith puts these games together once in a while, and he can be a solid fantasy quarterback for stretches, but playing San Diego’s defense in overtime does help.

Spencer Ware was a fantasy stud today with 11 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown, plus seven receptions on eight targets for 129 yards. Ware has showed he could do it all this week and will likely split touches with Jamaal Charles as the latter is eased back.

Raiders 35, Saints 34

David Carr started off slowly, but got into rhythm as the game went on, and it didn’t hurt that the Saints’ best cornerback, Delvin Breaux, left with injury. Carr completed 24-of-38 passes for 319 yards and a touchdown, which is great, but also against a weak New Orleans defense.

Carr used Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree a lot, targeting Cooper 11 times and Crabtree nine times, while Clive Walford was third in targets with five. Neither Cooper or Crabtree got the one touchdown reception, but they combined for 224 yards, with Cooper hitting a lofty 137 on six receptions. Cooper could be on his way to a big year if he can stay healthy.

Drew Brees did his usual Superdome fantasy explosion, completing 28-of-42 passes for 424 yards and four touchdowns. The defense lost this game for the Saints and will keep Brees and company airing it out this season.

Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead absolutely went off in this game. Cooks caught 6-of-9 targets for 143 yards and two touchdowns, while Snead caught 9-of-9 targets for 172 yards and a touchdown. And while that was going down, tight end Coby Fleener caught 1-of-4 targets for six yards. Yes, six yards. It seems the reports that he wasn’t picking up the playbook could be correct, so we probably need to take a wait-and-see attitude on Fleener for now, but there’s nowhere to go but up.

Texans 23, Bears 14

The biggest surprise for the Texans this week was Will Fuller leading the way in targets and receiving yards. He did drop a pass that would have went for a long touchdown and has had trouble with drops, but he’s just too good and always seems to make up for a drop with great plays. He caught 5-of-11 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown, and should continue to be the second target to DeAndre Hopkins moving forward.

Lamar Miller finally got his workload, as he rushed 28 times for 106 yards and caught four passes for 11 more yards. Those 32 touches were 10 more than he’s ever had in a game, so it’s good to see him come out of that workload healthy. He didn’t get a touchdown, but if he sees anywhere near this many touches per game, he’s going to have a big season as long as he can stay upright.

Jay Cutler started this game strongly, but only completed six passes in the second half and was sacked five times. The pressure from the Texans was too much for this Bears team, which will have trouble winning games this season.

Kevin White led Chicago in targets with seven, but Alshon Jeffery was easily the best receiver as usual, as he caught 4-of-6 passes for 105 yards. White only caught three passes for 34 yards and ran the wrong route on Cutler’s only interception. White still needs plenty of work.

Eagles 29, Browns 10

Carson Wentz was much better than I believed he could be in his first game in the NFL, completing 22-of-37 passes for 278 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Those zero interceptions might be the best stat there. He made tough throws and good decisions all game. Of course, the Browns’ defense is not, how do you say, good? But, they still play in the NFL and Wentz was hurt all preseason and shouldn’t have been able to play nearly as well as he did.

Jordan Matthews led the Eagles with 14 targets, catching seven for 114 yards and a touchdown. It was good to see Wentz and him connect so quickly and that Wentz recognizes he needs to get the ball to his best receiver. I have much more faith in Matthews fantasy upside now.

Robert Griffin III hurt his shoulder late in the game, so we’ll need to keep an eye on his MRI results. To add insult to injury, he completed 12-of-26 passes for 190 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. Josh McCown will see work this season.

Isaiah Crowell rushed 12 times for 62 yards and a touchdown, plus caught two passes for 16 yards, while Duke Johnson rushed three times for 22 yards and caught 3-of-5 targets for 28 yards. The Browns could be a top rushing team if their defense could keep games close, but that may not happen that often. It will remain tough to rely on either of them, but the potential is there.

Vikings 25, Titans 16

Minnesota’s defense won this game with two defensive touchdowns off of a fumble and an interception off Marcus Mariota. He did complete 25-of-41 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns, plus added 19 yards on the ground, so it wasn’t all bad, but the Vikings’ defense is going to be tough this year.

Shaun Hill targeted Stefon Diggs nine times, of which he caught seven for 103 yards. Diggs looked great this offseason. But the season-ending injury to Teddy Bridgewater dampened some of that hype, but Diggs is legit and should be useful in PPR leagues at the very least.

Tajae Sharpe led the team with 11 targets, catching seven for 76 yards. The Titans’ second-most targeted player was Andre Johnson, who caught 3-of-7 targets for 30 yards and also dropped a sure touchdown pass. I don’t expect Sharpe to lose his target lead anytime soon.

DeMarco Murray caught two touchdowns, but this wasn’t the run=based offense we thought it would be, as Mariota threw the ball 41 times and Murray ran it 13 times for 42 yards and Derrick Henry ran five times for three yards. Trailing, along with Minnesota’s defense, helped dictate some of that game flow, but don’t expect 40 rushing attempts from this Tennessee team.

Bucs 31, Falcons 24

Jameis Winston completed 23-of-33 passes for 281 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception. He continues to look great, from preseason to now. Winston did get help from Charles Sims on a great run after the catch and a beautiful stretched-out catch from Austin-Seferian Jenkins for a 30-yard touchdown, but Winston put those players in the situations to make those plays and looks to be the real deal. Winston does get a tough stretch of defenses in his next four games, so be sure to take that into consideration as you plan your lineups going forward.

Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson both saw seven targets to lead the team, but Evans was much more efficient, catching 5-of-7 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown, while Jackson caught just two for 18 yards. I expect Evans will start to see more targets than Jackson moving forward.

Matt Ryan completed 27-of-39 passes for 334 yards and two touchdowns, but his defense let him down in this one. The good news is that he put up good numbers and was helped a lot by new receiver Mohamed Sanu, who saw eight targets, catching five for 80 yards and a touchdown.

Devonta Freeman had 36 snaps and had 20 yards on 11 carries, plus caught 4-of-4 targets for 20 yards, while Tevin Coleman had 32 snaps and rushed eight times for 22 yards, but caught 5-of-6 targets for 95 yards. Coleman looked like the better play, so I expect this even timeshare continues, with a shot that Coleman could earn even more work.

Bengals 23, Jets 22

A.J. Green is quite good at football, and Darrelle Revis is not as good as A.J. Green at this point in his career. Green caught 12-of-13 targets for 180 yards and a touchdown, and looked like he could have gone for 100 more if needed. Green is poised for a huge year as he should continue to see many more targets than last season.

The Jets’ run defense was stout all game, but they did give up a 12-yard touchdown to Jeremy Hill, and this Jeremy Hill didn’t look like last year’s Jeremy Hill. He absolutely blew up the defense on this run. Against weaker run defense, Hill could have some big games this season.

Quincy Enuma led the Jets in targets and receptions, catching 7-of-8 for 54 yards and a touchdown, while Brandon Marshall also had eight targets, but caught just three for 32 yards. That, of course, won’t be the norm this year, but Enunwa could have some use in PPR leagues if Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to dink and dunk as much as he did on Sunday.

Matt Forte wasn’t sharing carries in Week 1 as he ran the ball 22 times for 96 yards and caught 5-of-7 targets for 54 yards. Those 27 touches seem like a lot, but as long as he holds up, Forte is going to be good in fantasy, while Bilal Powell will take a back seat despite looking strong in his few touches.

Seahawks 12, Dolphins 10

Russell Wilson completed 27-of-43 passes for 258 yards, one touchdown and an interception but also lost a fumble. It wasn’t one of his better games, but his ankle was also noticeably hurt in the second half and he had to stay in the pocket. Wilson did put together a game-winning drive with a touchdown to Doug Baldwin to wrap things up, and I’m not too worried about Wilson putting up good fantasy numbers this year.

Baldwin led the team with 11 targets, catching nine for 92 yards and a touchdown. Those 11 targets were more than he had in any one game last season, and he only hit 10 targets twice. That coincides with Wilson’s 43 pass attempts, which are the most he’s ever thrown in a game. This more pass-friendly offense could be a nice boon for Baldwin’s numbers.

Ryan Tannehill scored the Dolphins’ only touchdown on a quarterback draw, but couldn’t do much outside of that as he completed just 16-of-29 passes for 186 yards. This is the Seahawks’ defense in Seattle that we are talking about, so I think we can chalk this one up as yet another learning experience.

Jarvis Landry had an okay PPR day, as is his wont, but Arian Foster was the player who looked the best for the Dolphins. He didn’t put up a ton of fantasy points, but he did catch three passes for 63 yards and ran 13 times for 38 yards. You could see the Foster of old in there, and if he can somehow keep from having a devastating injury, he should continue to be productive.

Giants 20, Cowboys 19

Eli Manning completed 19-of-28 passes for 207 yards, three touchdowns and an interception against Dallas, despite Dallas slowing the game down by playing dink-and-dunk offense, which hurt Manning’s total targets due to fewer plays than normal. Manning gets the Saints next week, which could be a fantasy footballer’s fantasy come true.

Odell Beckham Jr. led the Giants in targets with eight, but Sterling Shepard, Larry Donnell and that blast from the past Victor Cruz were the players who scored the touchdowns. Beckham Jr. is going to score a lot of touchdowns this year still, so don’t worry about that, and with more players stepping up, he won’t get quite as much attention every week from the defense.

Dak Prescott looked good for the most part, but he relied way too much on Jason Witten and Cole Beasley instead of Dez Bryant. Witten and Beasley had a whopping 26 targets between them with Witten catching nine and Beasley eight; however, neither of them topped 66 yards, while Dez Bryant saw four targets total. Prescott needs to get the ball further down the field if this offense is going to have a chance without Tony Romo.

Ezekiel Elliot scored a touchdown to save his fantasy day, but the slow and constrained pace of this offense helped New York’s defense to bring defenders into the box to slow down the run game. Elliott had 20 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown and only one reception. That one reception is what concerns me. Passes to Elliott should fit quite well into this safe game plan for Prescott, but seemingly not yet.

Lions 39, Colt 35

This game lived up to the fantasy hype as the Lions came out on top 39 to 35. Matthew Stafford completed 31-of-39 passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns in one of his best games ever. It doesn’t hurt to be playing a depleted Indianapolis defense, but Stafford’s fantasy backers aren’t going to cry too much about it.

The big fantasy producer this week for the Lions was Theo Riddick. His new contract is still warm, so Detroit’s brass can be nothing but ecstatic to see Riddick rush seven times for 45 yards and a touchdown pluus catch 5-of-5 targets for 63 yards and another touchdown. But, Riddick wasn’t the only running back to put up good numbers. Ameer Abdullah totaled 120 yards and also caught a touchdown. Unfortunately, we won’t see this much production out of the running back position each week, but both of these guys have upside each week.

Andrew Luck also put together a big game, which was great to see after a “meh” preseason and a poor start to last year. He threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns against the Lions, who should have a slightly better defense than the Colts. Luck spread the ball around well, and Phillip Dorsett actually led the team in receiving yards, but T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief were the target leaders – as they should be.

Tight end Jack Doyle caught two touchdowns on four targets, while Dwayne Allen caught 4-of-6 targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. I’m not going to chase Doyle’s touchdowns, and Allen should remain a good fantasy play each week.

Patriots 23, Cardinals 21

Jimmy Garoppolo completed 24-of-33 passes for 264 yards and one touchdown, plus lost a fumble. All in all, it was great showing for a quarterback on the road against a good defense without his best offensive player in the lineup.

Julian Edelman and James White led the team with seven targets each, and Edelman caught all seven of his for 66 yards, while White caught five for 40 yards. Garoppolo’ll get easier matchups and should help the Patriots’ players to some decent fantasy finishes before Tom Brady returns.

Carson Palmer played a good game, completing 24 of 37 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns. It wasn’t the greatest performance, but it was one that should have won Arizona the game.

Larry Fitzgerald was the star of this game as he took over and almost put the team on his back for the win. He caught 8-of-10 targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns. The idea that Michael Floyd or John Brown could supplant Fitzgerald doesn’t seem to be feasible right now. He may wear down as the season goes on, but right now he’s the No. 1 receiver in a great passing offense.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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