Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 15, 2017

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Jaguars 45, Texans 7
T.J. Yates completed 12-of-31 passes for 128 yards, one touchdown and one interception, which was what you would expect from a mid-season quarterback signing.

This game was a blowout, and we saw Alfred Blue see more work than Lamar Miller in garbage time, and with just 128 yards passing, there wasn’t much to go around, but thankfully for DeAndre Hopkins’ backers, he was able to catch 4-of-13 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown. He’s a hard man to keep out of the end zone, even with an awful quarterback throwing him the ball.

Blake Bortles completed 21-of-29 passes for 326 yards and three touchdowns, and was rested in the fourth quarter. With no Leonard Fournette, and Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon not going anywhere on the ground, Bortles went to the air and was on point, even with Marquise Lee leaving the game early with an ankle injury and Dede Westbrook getting shut down. Instead, Bortles helped Keelan Cole and Jaydon Mickens to both go off, with Cole catching 7-of-9 targets for 186 yards and a touchdown and Mickens catching 4-of-6 targets for 61 yards and two touchdowns.

Moving forward we’ll need to see where Lee is health-wise, but if we can’t go next week against the 49ers, Keelan Cole becomes a strong play.

Panthers 31, Packers 24
Aaron Rodgers completed 26-of-45 passes for 290 yards, three touchdowns and three touchdowns, adding six rushes for 43 yards. It isn’t what he wanted in real life, but for fantasy, it still works out okay for those who played him. He was noticeably rusty, missing high and low, and not on the same page as his receivers, but he also has such ability that he can make things happen anyway. He gets a tough matchup against the Vikings next week, but will be a good start anyway.

Davante Adams had to leave this game due to a concussion after a particularly bad peel-back block. That left more work for Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, but Nelson, who had gone into the dumps lately, couldn’t break out, as he caught just 3-of-6 targets for 28 yards, while Cobb caught 7-of-14 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. Cobb should be a good pick-up this week.

Cam Newton completed 20-of-31 passes for 242 yards and four touchdowns, adding 14 rushes for 58 yards. He flourished this week by relentlessly targeting Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey, which worked out quite well. The addition of Olsen gave Newton a big boost, and next week, Carolina will take on the weak Tampa Bay defense.

Christian McCaffrey rushed 12 times for 63 yards and caught 6-of-7 targets for 73 yards and a touchdown. McCaffrey hadn’t hit six receptions since Week 7 and had seen an overall dip in his work, but this week, he set a new career high in total yards.

Damiere Byrd caught 3-of-4 targets for 25 yards and two touchdowns. Will that happen again anytime soon? Probably not.

Redskins 20, Cardinals 15
Blaine Gabbert completed 16-of-41 passes for 189 yards with one interception, plus fumbled thrice, losing one. He added 28 yards on six carries, too. Gabbert was awful from the start, and despite showing some glimmers of hope in his first few games, he’s now back to being awful.

Kirk Cousins completed 18-of-26 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns. His offensive line is still a problem, and the Redskins got lucky that Blaine Gabbert was so awful.

Jamison Crowder caught 5-of-7 targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. He had been in a little slump after turning his season around midway, so this game was a positive sign. He’ll take on Denver next week, which isn’t the best place for a slot receiver.

Samaje Perine was ineffective, rushing 14 times for 37 yards and catching his two targets for 29 yards. After back-to-back 100-yard rushing affairs against the Saints and Giants, he’s fallen back into mediocrity with three straight games under 45 yards rushing. He gets a tough matchup against Denver next.

Eagles 34, Giants 29
Eli Manning completed 37-of-57 passes for 434 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. It was a performance that came out of nowhere, but also showed that he might not be completely done.

Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram were Manning’s top targets once again, and both put up good numbers, but Shepard was unstoppable, catching 11-of-16 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown. He’s good and is going to continue being good as the No. 2 to Odell Beckham Jr. Next week at Arizona, Sterling should again be set up for a good game, as Patrick Peterson usually doesn’t shadow slot receivers.

Nick Foles completed 24-of-38 passes for 237 yards and four touchdowns. Foles wasn’t airing it out, but he executed well throughout the day, especially around the end zone, which you can probably figure out by his four touchdown passes. It was also helpful that the Giants put up a fight, pushing Foles to keep throwing. He’ll get to take on a Raiders team next week that he tied the NFL record against with seven touchdown passes in his first go-around with the Eagles.

Foles spread the ball around well, targeting Nelson Agholor, Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery evenly with nine, nine and 10 targets respectively. All three of those receivers also found the end zone.

Saints 31, Jets 19
Bryce Petty completed 19-of-39 passes for 179 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. He wasn’t quite as awful as the stats look, but he was mediocre at best. He’ll have more trouble against a stout Chargers pass defense next week.

Bilal Powell, Elijah McGuire and Matt Forte all split work, but Powell and McGuire both found the end zone, giving them okay fantasy days. Of course, a three-headed backfield is the worst thing in fantasy, and it will be nearly impossible to be confident in any of these backs next week, even in a good matchup with the Chargers.

Drew Brees completed 26-of-36 passes for 285 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. This is around his ceiling for the year, but that’s just the way it is now. It was a good game from him and helped his other offensive players put up strong numbers as well.

The triumvirate of Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas once again put up strong fantasy points, with each player finding the end zone, or in Ingram’s case, finding it twice, and all three topped 88 total yards.

The Saints will take on the Falcons again next week, but this time, they’ll have Kamara, who was lost early in their Week 14 game against the Falcons to a concussion. All of New Orleans fantasy players will also see a slight boost in the home dome.

Vikings 34, Bengals 7
Andy Dalton completed 11-of-22 passes for 113 yards and two interceptions, one which was returned for a touchdown. He wasn’t good and was pulled due to getting blown out. The Bengals as a whole look like they were ready to leave from play one. They get a good matchup against a slipping Lions defense next week at home, but they sure didn’t look too interested in winning this week.

Case Keenum completed 20-of-23 passes for 236 yards and two touchdowns in a rout. He was on target all day, but didn’t need to do much with the Bengals waiving the white flag out of the gates. Keenum will get another good matchup next week against the Packers’ weak pass defense.

Latavius Murray rushed 20 times for 76 yards and a touchdown, adding one reception for 28 yards. The game-script worked out well for Murray, as the big lead slowed the pace down as the Vikings killed clock with a big lead. But this week, Murray’s dominance in touches didn’t kill Jerrick McKinnon, who rushed seven times for 24 yards and caught 7-of-8 targets for 114 yards. Unfortunately, McKinnon’s usage was game specific, as the Bengals are hurting at the linebacker position and were easy pickings for him.

Ravens 27, Browns 10
DeShone Kizer completed 20-of-37 passes for 146 yards with two interceptions and a lost fumble, while rushing seven times for 35 yards. It was another awful game from Kizer, who is a turnover machine, with 25 this season.

Kizer’s ineptitude killed his offense, and Duke Johnson was the only player to find the end zone for the Browns. Josh Gordon led the team in targets with 11, but could only come up with five receptions for 47 yards. He needs someone to give him an opportunity to catch deep passes, which Kizer couldn’t do this week, as he dinked and dunked his way nowhere.

Joe Flacco completed 26-of-42 passes for 288 yards and touchdown and added another touchdown on the ground. His yardage was a season-high as his team cruised to an easy win. He’s played well recently and gets a great matchup against the Colts next week.

Mike Wallace caught 6-of-10 targets for 89 yards, seeing the bulk of the work with Jeremy Maclin leaving early due to injury. Wallace has been on a nice stretch of games over the last six weeks and should have some upside against the Colts next week.

Alex Collins rushed 12 times for 19 yards and caught 5-of-8 passes for 33 yards, while Buck Allen rushed 13 times for 70 yards with one reception for four yards, but most of Allen’s work came late in garbage time. Collins just ran up against a tough Cleveland run defense and should be a good start next week against the Colts.

Bills 24, Dolphins 16
Jay Cutler completed 28-of-49 passes for 274 yards and three interceptions. This was “Bad Jay” who showed up in Buffalo compared to “Good Jay” last Monday night against the Patriots. Cutler’s lack of consistency has always been who he is, and it’s just too late for him to ever change.

Kenyan Drake rushed 16 times for 78 yards and a touchdown, plus caught 6-of-11 targets for 35 yards. It was another strong game from Drake as he solidifies his lead-back role. He’ll get a weak defense in Kansas City to run against next week.

Tyrod Taylor completed 17-of-29 passes for 224 yards and a touchdown, adding six carries for 42 yards and a touchdown. This is the kind of game you are looking for out of Taylor, as his offense, when winning, will always run the ball instead of throwing it, so you need these rushing yards, and the touchdown seals the deal. He heads to New England next week, which was a disaster for Buffalo when hosting the Patriots in Week 13.

LeSean McCoy had another strong fantasy day, rushing 20 times for 50 yards and a touchdown, plus catching 4-of-5 targets for 46 yards and another touchdown. McCoy was the only bright spot for the Bills in their last game against the Patriots, so be sure to fire him up next week.

Charles Clay led the Bills with nine targets, which he caught five of for 68 yards, which also led the team. He looks like he’s healthy enough and a big enough part of the offense to start next week.

49ers 25, Titans 23
Marcus Mariota completed 23-of-33 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns, which was his first two-touchdown game since Week 7 and his first 200-yard-or-more game since Week 11. Right now, this looks like his ceiling, which is not where you want your ceiling.

Mariota did get back to connecting with Rishard Matthews this week, as Matthews caught 6-of-8 targets for 95 yards and a touchdown. He’ll be the best shot for production through the air next week, but in a tough matchup with the Rams.

Jimmy Garoppolo completed 31-of-43 passes for 381 yards and a touchdown, and he now has passed for over 290 yards in all three of his starts. He’s still having trouble getting into the end zone, with just two touchdowns in those three games, but he is driving the ball and getting it out quickly and accurately. If you’ve watched much 49ers football, you know the difference is striking between Garoppolo and some of the backups they’ve had starting. Next week, we’ll get to see how well he can do against the Jaguars’ shutdown pass defense.

Marquise Goodwin caught 10-of-13 passes for 114 yards. He has developed a strong connection with Garoppolo and has averaged over 100 yards per game since Garoppolo took over as the quarterback. It will be hard to sit Goodwin next week, even against the Jaguars.

Patriots 27, Steelers 24
Ben Roethlisberger lost his and the league’s best receiver, Antonio Brown, early in this game, so his completing 22-of-30 passes for 281 yards, two touchdowns and an interception was commendable, but as you probably know, the interception was a bonehead play to lose the game. Next week, he’ll be a strong start in Houston.

Antonio Brown reportedly tore his calf muscle and is likely done for the regular season, but has a decent chance to return for the playoffs. It’s a huge kick in the nether regions for those who had him on their team in the fantasy playoffs.

Both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant put together good games in Brown’s absence. They should be both set up for strong games in Houston.

Tom Brady completed 22-of-35 passes for 298 yards, a touchdown and an interception. The Steelers were able to slow down the Patriots’ potent offense, but when they needed it, Brady went to Rob Gronkowski, who the Steelers had no answer for. Gronkowski caught 9-of-13 targets for 168 yards, including an extremely important two-point conversion.

Dion Lewis rushed 13 times for 67 yards and a touchdown, adding a catch on two targets for 13 yards. He was vultured once again by Rex Burkhead for a goal-line touchdown, but Burkhead left not long after that with a knee injury. If Burkhead can’t play next week against the Bills, Lewis becomes a must-play.

Rams 42, Seahawks 7
Russell Wilson completed 14-of-30 passes for 142 yards and one touchdown, lost a fumble and took a safety on an intentional grounding call. Wilson was also sacked an amazing seven times. This was a beat down of epic proportions, and you won’t find anything good to hang your hat on if you are a Seahawks fan.

Jared Goff completed 14-of-21 passes for 120 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. His low output had everything to do with a swarming defense and highly effective running game.

Robert Woods caught 6-of-7 targets for 45 yards and one touchdown in his first game back from injury. He quickly took back the lead receiver role and should be a good start next week in Tennessee.

Todd Gurley rushed 21 times for 152 yards and three and caught all three of his targets for 28 yards and a yet another touchdown. He’s going to win a lot of people their fantasy playoff game this week. Gurley gets a tough matchup against the Titans strong run defense, but he is very much matchup proof right now.

Cowboys 20, Raiders 17
Dak Prescott completed 18-of-27 passes for 212 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. He also added seven rushing attempts for 13 yards and a touchdown, which kept him from having an even more disastrous fantasy day. Prescott just doesn’t have the confidence and poise that we saw when he could rely on Ezekiel Elliot to buoy the offense. This was a great matchup for Prescott, so there’s no way I’ll be able to trust him against the Seahawks next week, even with their defense faltering.

Jason Witten, Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley all saw more targets than Dez Bryant, with five each. Bryant had four and caught two for 59 yards. Bryant is slower than a tortoise, but he still has the ability to beat defenders on contested passes and should at the very least be the No. 1 target.

Rod Smith touched the ball 10 times for 34 yards and a touchdown, while Alfred Morris rushed the ball 16 times for 61 yards. It continues to be a mixed bag for these two, with no clear way of knowing who will do what each week.

Derek Carr completed 21-of-38 passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns while rushing four times for 47 yards. He also lost a ball out of the end zone on what would have been a game-winning touchdown. He wasn’t good tonight, but he did at least help Michael Crabtree to his best game in a while. Carr has taken a step backward this season, but he’s got an extremely long leash and will likely find his groove again at some point.

Marshawn Lynch rushed 16 times for 76 yards and caught 3-of-4 passes for 16 yards. He continues to run well, but he’s just not getting enough red zone or goal line looks in this offense right now.

Michael Crabtree saw an amazing 17 targets, which was the most for this week, and he caught seven of them for 39 yards and two touchdowns. That’s a big fat 2.29 yards per target! But of course, you and anyone you know would be happy with the two touchdowns in fantasy.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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