Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 14, 2018

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Colts 24, Texans 21
Andrew Luck completed 27-of-41 passes for 399 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, adding six rushing attempts for 16 yards. After putting up zero points against the Jaguars last week, this was a great bounce-back game for Luck and company. He now has topped 21 fantasy points in 9-of-10 games. Next week, he will have a tough matchup with Dallas, but will be at home again, where he hasn’t dipped below 19.5 fantasy points this year.

T.Y. Hilton was considered a game-time decision going into this game, but he looked like his usual explosive self, catching 9-of-12 targets for 199 yards. He somehow didn’t get into the end zone, but after worrying that he might not even play, I think his fantasy backers will get over it.

Deshaun Watson completed 27-of-38 passes for 267 yards and one touchdown, adding five rushing attempts for 35 yards. His 27 completions and 38 attempts were his most since Week 5, but he still had trouble putting up big numbers, especially with Will Fuller and Keke Coutee out. Watson gets a good matchup on the road against the Jets next week.

Lamar Miller rushed 14 times for 33 yards and a touchdown, plus caught 5-of-6 targets for 19 yards. Alfred Blue scored on a goal-line run, but ended up with just six carries for 21 yards. The Colts’ run defense was on point, except for the goal-line touchdowns, but Miller remains the lead back.

Giants 40, Redskins 16
Eli Manning completed 14-of-22 passes for 197 yards and three touchdowns before sitting in the fourth quarter with a 40-0 lead. The Giants didn’t have Odell Beckham Jr., but it didn’t matter as the Redskins looked like they were ready to get on the plane to Cancun.

Saquon Barkley was the star of this game, as he ran the ball 14 times for 170 yards and a touchdown, plus caught 4-of-5 passes for 27 yards. He now has 1,124 yards rushing for nine touchdowns and 79 receptions for 629 yards and four touchdowns. There are very few backs who could put these kinds of numbers up on this awful Giants team.

Mark Sanchez was pulled from this game after completing 6-of-14 passes for 38 yards and two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. He left with his team down 40-0, and Josh Johnson came in and completed 11-of-16 passes for 195 yards, a touchdown and an interception, adding seven carries for 45 yards and another touchdown in garbage time. He did enough to get the starting job moving forward, but won’t be of much use in fantasy.

Jamison Crowder led his team with seven targets, only catching two. However, he turned one of those receptions into a nice catch and run for a 79-yard touchdown. Now that he’s finally healthy, he should be the top target in this not very good offense.

Jordan Reed left this game with a foot injury and didn’t return. That doesn’t sound good for his prospects of playing next week against the Jaguars. Vernon Davis will take Reed’s spot if he can’t go.

Saints 28, Buccaneers 14
Drew Brees completed 24-of-31 passes for 201 yards with one touchdown and one interception, adding a goal-line rushing touchdown. It wasn’t the game you were hoping for from Brees against Tampa Bay’s defense, but early on, it didn’t look like we were going to get much of anything. Still, it was a kick in the pants to be sure. He should rebound against Carolina next week if you were able to move on or had a bye.

Mark Ingram rushed 13 times for 52 yards and touchdown, while Alvin Kamara rushed 12 times for 51 yards, plus caught 5-of-6 targets for 36 yards. This felt like a blow-up game for Kamara, but he was held in check and now hasn’t had a touchdown in three games, which doesn’t sound that bad, but he had 15 touchdowns in the 10 games before this stretch.

Jameis Winston completed 18-of-38 passes for 213 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, adding 47 rushing yards on five carries. It wasn’t as strong a fantasy game as we hoped, as the scoring wasn’t close to the over/under, but Winston’s rushing yards helped push him into “good start” range. He has now topped 47 yards rushing in his last two games, which is great to see for fantasy. Unfortunately, he gets two tough matchups on the road against the Ravens and Dallas next.

Cameron Brate had a tough matchup against the Saints’ stingy tight end defense, but he still managed two touchdowns on two receptions for 14 yards. It was a low-output game for the Buccaneers across the board unfortunately.

Dolphins 34, Patriots 33
Ryan Tannehill completed 14-of-19 passes for 265 yards and three touchdowns, along with rushing once for 13 yards. One of his touchdowns and a big chunk of his yardage came from the Dolphins’ amazing last-second, multi-lateral play to win the game. Tannehill is still not getting enough work to be a consistent fantasy play unless you can count on a last-second 69-yard miracle touchdown “pass” every week, and even then, it would be asking a lot.

Kenyan Drake will go in the stat sheet as catching a 55-yard touchdown pass on that “Miami Miracle,” but otherwise, he had six rushing attempts for 24 yards, while Branden Bolden scored two touchdowns on his two rushing attempts, and Frank Gore totaled 116 yards on 13 touches. Drake is not startable in the fantasy playoffs.

Tom Brady completed 27-of-43 passes for 358 yards and three touchdowns, putting up his second-best fantasy game of the season. This game was back and forth from the start, which pushed Brady to throw the ball more than anyone figured he would. Next week against the Steelers, we should expect plenty of passing and scoring.

Sony Michel ran the ball 20 times for just 57 yards, while James Develin,once again, vultured a short touchdown run. At this point, we can’t expect Michel to ever get a goal-line carry again.

Chiefs 27, Ravens 24
Patrick Mahomes completed 35-of-53 passes for 377 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against the stout Ravens defense. He once again proved that he is the best quarterback in the league right now.

Spencer Ware rushed 15 times for 75 yards and caught 5-of-5 targets for 54 more yards. This was a much better game for Ware than last week against Oakland, but he was vultured twice by Damien Williams for touchdowns. He played much better than Williams overall and should still be in line for work around the goal line, but there’s no doubt Williams is as well.

Lamar Jackson completed 13-of-24 passes for 124 yards and two touchdowns, adding 71 rushing yards on 13 attempts. The stat-line looks better than the offense did, but it did almost get the Ravens a win in Kansas City. I think it’s still an open question on who will get the start next week for Baltimore now that Joe Flacco is healthy.

Gus Edwards rushed 16 times for 67 yards, while Kenneth Dixon rushed eight times for 59 yards and a touchdown, plus caught his lone target for 21 yards. This combo will likely be what the Ravens go with to finish the season if they can, giving both some fantasy appeal.

Packers 34, Falcons 20
Aaron Rodgers completed 21-of-32 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns while rushing three times for 44 yards. A pick-six by Matt Ryan gave the Packers a 17-7 lead before half, and then an absolute dime from Rodgers to Randall Cobb on their first drive of the second half put the Packers up 27-10. Rodgers wasn’t asked to do much after that. He looked sharp in this game, and his 44 rushing yards were his most on the season. I think sending Mike McCarthy packing will continue to help this offense.

Jamaal Williams oddly get the start this week, but Aaron Jones took over after the first drive and ran the ball 17 times for 78 yards and a touchdown, plus caught all three of his targets for 28 yards. His 20 touches match his season high. The Bears in Chicago won’t be an easy matchup for Jones next week.

Matt Ryan completed 28-of-42 passes for 262 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Julio Jones and some garbage time helped his fantasy day, and that’s all we really ask for here. Even though he hasn’t been playing all that well of late, Jones and a pass-first offense should continue to push his fantasy numbers up.

Ito Smith ran the ball 11 times for 60 yards and caught 3-of-4 passes for 14 yards, while Tevin Coleman ran the ball 10 times for 45 yards and caught his lone target for negative four yards. This backfield is a full-blown 50/50 committee, and the Falcons aren’t getting leads that allow them to utilize both backs enough to give them much upside.

Browns 26, Panthers 20
Baker Mayfield completed 18-of-22 passes for 238 yards and one touchdown, and while he looked good doing so, the fantasy stats aren’t nearly what you want, especially from a game in which the Panthers led in the fourth quarter. He did just miss a long touchdown as Breshad Perriman couldn’t stay in bounds, and Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb both had rushing touchdowns which limited Mayfield’s fantasy upside. He easily could have gotten touchdowns on those drives and had a huge day, so his “down” fantasy game has plenty of silver linings for the future.

Jarvis Landry caught 3-of-4 targets for 57 yards and ran the ball twice for 54 yards and another touchdown. He now has back-to-back strong fantasy games, but this one was just odd. We can’t expect a four-target game to result in this many fantasy points, but if you started him, you’ll take it with glee.

Cam Newton completed 26-of-42 passes for 265 yards, no touchdowns and an interception, adding 23 yards on five carries. Newton isn’t the same player he was earlier in the year, and it is most likely due to his shoulder injury. He’s not throwing deep and is not running at the goal line, which makes him a tough start even at home against the Saints next week.

Newton’s shorter passes appear to be good for tight end Ian Thomas, who led the team in targets with 11 and caught nine of those for 77 yards. Thomas gets a tough matchup against the Saints next week, but Cameron Brate did just catch two touchdowns against them.

Jets 27, Bills 23
Sam Darnold completed 16-of-24 passes for 170 yards, a touchdown and an interception, adding 10 yards on four carries. Darnold also left to have his foot checked out, but came back and was able to lead his team to a win. This wasn’t a good fantasy game, but Darnold had been on the down turn before missing time with his foot injury, and this game was a positive in his development.

Robby Anderson caught 4-of-7 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. He has ability and in a different situation, would likely be a strong fantasy player. He can’t be relied on this season, but his dynasty appeal is still high.

Josh Allen completed 18-of-36 passes for 206 yards and two interceptions, but once again did most of his fantasy work on the ground, as he rushed nine times for 101 yards and a touchdown. He also lost a fumble, giving him three turnovers this week and hurting his fantasy upside. If you could magically take away those turnovers, he’d have finished in the top five of quarterback scoring. He’ll take on Detroit next week and should again be a useful fantasy play with his rushing ability.

Zay Jones couldn’t build off his big game last week, as he caught 3-of-9 targets for just 22 yards, but Robert Foster was able to catch 7-of-8 targets for 104 yards and now has topped 94 yards in three of his last four games.

Lions 17, Cardinals 3
Matthew Stafford completed 15-of-23 passes for 101 yards in one of the most boring displays of quarterbacking you’ll ever see. His upside is now around his ankles. There’s no reason to even consider playing him in Buffalo next week.

LeGarrette Blount ran the ball 12 times for 33 yards and caught 2-of-3 targets for 18 yards, plus lost a fumble, while Zach Zenner had 12 carries for 54 yards and a touchdown, all in the second half. If we don’t see Kerryon Johnson return next week, Zenner should see a decent amount of work.

Josh Rosen completed 26-of-41 passes for 240 yards and an interception that was returned for a touchdown. This Cardinals team is just bad, and without Christian Kirk, Rosen no longer has the deep threat he liked.

David Johnson ran the ball 15 times for 49 yards and caught 8-of-10 targets for, wait for it, 12 yards. In PPR, he might have squeaked your fake team by, but in standard, he was a huge dud, and it will be hard to trust him even in a good matchup with the Falcons next week.

Raiders 24, Steelers 21
Derek Carr completed 25-of-34 passes for 322 yards and two touchdowns, putting together his first back-to-back good fantasy games of the year. He has sucked most of the year, but he could have another good game against the Bengals next week, albeit on the road.

Jared Cook caught 7-of-10 passes for 116 yards. He has now scored a touchdown or topped 100 yards, or both, in 7-of-13 games and has now caught seven passes for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games. Cook and consistency have never gone together, but he’s getting there this year.

Ben Roethlisberger completed 25-of-29 passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns, but missed all of the third quarter and a good chunk of the fourth with a rib injury. If he could have played the whole game, his numbers could have been the best of the week. He should be able to play next week against the Patriots in Pittsburgh, where he will be a strong start.

Jaylen Samuels rushed 11 times for 28 yards and caught all seven of his targets for 64 yards. Samuels isn’t James Conner, but he is a good receiver. Stevan Ridley isn’t any better at running the ball, so if James Conner can’t play against the Patriots, I expect Samuels to be a worthwhile PPR play again.

Cowboys 29, Eagles 23
Dak Prescott completed 42-of-54 passes for 455 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, plus lost a fumble. After a horrible start, Prescott and Amari Cooper went crazy and continued into overtime, boosting their numbers even higher. Cooper caught 10-of-13 targets for 217 yards and three touchdowns and has essentially saved the Cowboys’ season.

Ezekiel Elliott rushed 28 times for 114 yards and caught 12-of-13 targets for 79 yards. He amazingly didn’t score, but in PPR leagues, he dominated, scoring the second-most fantasy points of the week for running backs. He’ll continue to be a top-three start next week in Indianapolis.

Carson Wentz completed 22-of-32 passes for 228 yards and three touchdowns. He also lost a fumble. This game could have gone a lot worse for Wentz after an extremely slow start and against a tough defense on the road, but he rallied and put together a decent showing. Next week, he’ll take on an angry Rams team in L.A. which just got beaten down by the Bears in Chicago.

Alshon Jeffery returned from the fantasy grave this week, as he caught 6-of-9 targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. It wasn’t a huge fantasy day, but easily his best since Week 7. There are still too many mouths to feed to see consistency outside of Zach Ertz, who was kept from double-digit PPR fantasy points for just the third time this season.

49ers 20, Broncos 14
Nick Mullens completed 20-of-33 passes for 332 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and he now has two strong fantasy games in a row after two awful ones. Next week, he’ll face the Seattle team in San Francisco that he threw for 414 yards and two touchdowns against just last week, albeit in garbage time.

George Kittle absolutely went off this week, catching 7-of-9 targets for 210 yards and one touchdown all in the first half. Since Week 3, Kittle has just one PPR fantasy day under 10 points, and he saved his best for the fantasy playoffs.

Case Keenum completed 24-of-42 passes for 186 yards and a touchdown, as he seemed to very much miss Emmanuel Sanders. He was already a low-upside quarterback, but now he is looking extremely scary for any fantasy machinations.

Tim Patrick led the Broncos in targets and yards, while DaeSean Hamilton was second in targets and caught a touchdown. And of course, the new No. 1 receiver, Courtland Sutton, flopped with just 2-of-6 receptions for 14 yards. There’s a good chance receiving production will be extremely inconsistent from here on out for Denver.

Chargers 26, Bengals 21
Philip Rivers completed 19-of-29 passes for 220 yards and one touchdown. It was a disappointing game against one of the worst defenses in the league and can probably be attributed in part to a tough come-from-behind-victory against the Steelers last Sunday night. The Bengals aren’t a team you get up for, especially after a game like that. This Thursday will be a different story though, as the Chargers head to Kansas City for a game they will be hyped for.

Austin Ekeler carried the ball 15 times for 66 yards and one touchdown, plus caught 2-of-5 targets for 28 yards, while Justin Jackson ran the ball seven times for 12 yards and caught both his targets for 23 yards. Ekeler outplayed Jackson after Jackson outplayed Ekeler last week, but Ekeler was injured late in this game and could miss Thursday’s game with a stinger. The Chargers hope to have Melvin Gordon back, but if he can’t make it, Jackson could be in line for the start.

Jeff Driskel completed 18-of-27 passes for 170 yards and one touchdown, adding 12 yards on two carries. He also had a touchdown run overturned, which could have gone either way and didn’t turn over the ball. It wasn’t a great game, but one that allowed the Bengals to almost pull out the upset.

Joe Mixon ran the ball 26 times for 111 yards and a touchdown, adding five receptions on six targets for 27 yards. With Driskel not doing much, Mixon was the engine of the offense and almost led his team to the win. Next week, he gets a good matchup at home against the Raiders.

Bears 15, Rams 6
Mitchell Trubisky completed 16-of-30 passes for 110 yards, a touchdown and three interceptions, adding six carries for 23 yards. This was a miserable game for Trubisky, although not as miserable as Jared Goff’s, which has everything to do with the Bears’ defense, which won this game. Trubisky looked healthy but just didn’t play very well. He now has topped 220 yards passing just once in his last four games. He’ll face Green Bay at home next week and won’t be a recommended starter.

Jordon Howard rushed 19 times for 101 yards and caught one target for two yards, while Tarik Cohen rushed nine times for 69 yards and caught all four of his targets for 20 yards. This was Howard’s first 100-yard game of the season, but he still hasn’t found the end zone in his last five games. Cohen will remain the more explosive and higher-upside play.

Jared Goff completed 20-of-44 passes for 180 yards and four interceptions, while Todd Gurley had 11 carries for 28 yards and caught 3-of-7 targets for 30 yards. Both had their worst games of the season, and unfortunately, they came in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully if you have Gurley, you ended up with a bye for this week.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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