Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 12, 2018

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Bills 24, Jaguars 21
Josh Allen completed 8-of-19 passes for 160 yards and a touchdown, plus rushed 12 times for 100 yards and another touchdown. He gave us a similar big fantasy game using his legs earlier in the season and couldn’t repeat. He has upside with his rushing ability and big arm, but he is going to continue to be more bust than boom.

Robert Foster was the only player other than Allen to put up many fantasy points, as he started the game off with a huge 75-yard touchdown reception, but he ended the day with only three total targets and one more reception to give him 94 yards and the touchdown. Four Bills players led the team with three targets each, which is not a recipe for sustained fantasy production.

Blake Bortles is bad, and he should feel bad about himself. He completed 12-of-23 passes for 127 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, plus toted six rushing attempts for 28 yards on his way to yet another loss and lackluster fantasy day.

Leonard Fournette dominated in the first half, scoring two touchdowns and totaling 108 yards. In the third quarter, however, he was ejected for coming off the sideline and throwing punches. His day could have been monstrous, but thankfully for those who rostered him, they can weep into their barrel of fantasy points.

Browns 35, Bengals 20
Baker Mayfield completed 19-of-26 passes for 258 yards and four touchdowns, with most of those stats coming in the first half, as the Browns swamped the Bengals in Cincinnati. After his fourth score, the Browns went into clock-killing mode, but Mayfield had already put up his best game of his career. He will get to face the Bengals again in Week 16 during fantasy championship week.

Nick Chubb didn’t end up with great efficiency numbers, but he did have great fantasy numbers as he rushed 28 times for 84 yards for one touchdown and caught 3-of-3 of his targets for 44 yards and another touchdown. Chubb’s work as a receiver is a great sign for his upside going forward.

Andy Dalton had to leave this game with a thumb injury. He was 10-of-17 passing for 100 yards with a touchdown and interception, plus left behind a huge deficit upon his exit. Jeff Driskel came in and completed 17-of-29 passes for 155 yards, adding nine rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. Driskel may not be better than Dalton, but he brought some juice to the game that Dalton certainly didn’t have. The Bengals need to start grooming a Dalton replacement and fire Marvin Lewis and anyone who thinks Hue Jackson should be the Browns’ head coach.

Joe Mixon rushed 14 times for 89 yards, plus caught 7-of-7 targets for 66 yards. This was a good sign for his upside moving forward. His target numbers have been low, and he has been scripted out of too many games when trailing in the past. Hopefully, we can count on more receiving work, even while trailing, in the future.

Patriots 27, Jets 13
Tom Brady completed 20-of-31 passes for 283 yards and two touchdowns to get somewhat back on track after a tough stretch. The return of Rob Gronkowski helped, but Brady was not at his best when targeting Gronkowski this week, except for a great early-game throw down the seam for a touchdown.

Sony Michel rushed 21 times for 133 yards and a touchdown, plus made two receptions on two targets for 12 additional yards. He also had an injury scare in this game, but thankfully was able to return and set his career high for rushing yards. It was good to see him get back and play well, as wellm as overcome his in-game injury. As long as the Patriots don’t get into a big deficit early in a game, Michel should remain a strong fantasy start.

Josh McCown completed 26-of-45 passes for 276 yards, one touchdown and an interception, as he stepped in for Sam Darnold for the second straight game. This game went better for McCown, but was still a weak day against a beatable defense.

Chris Herndon continued to play well despite working in an overall poor offense, as he caught 7-of-8 targets for 57 yards. Not great fantasy numbers, but in PPR, they’ll get you through.

Eagles 25, Giants 22
Carson Wentz completed 20-of-28 passes for 236 yards and one touchdown on his way to his second down week in a row after putting up good numbers in the six games before. He should have been able to easily throw on this Giants defense like he did in Week 6, which has me concerned even against a bad Washington pass defense next week.

Josh Adams rushed 22 times for 84 yards and one touchdown after an early injury scare. His effort was a big reason the Eagles were able to come from behind to win. I was disappointed by his lack of targets, but Corey Clement only had two, while no other running back saw any. I still expect Adams to see a few targets out of the backfield moving forward, but they may be limited in scope. Unfortunately, his schedule doesn’t look great, but if he can see 20 touches a game, he will have value no matter.

Eli Manning completed 25-of-36 passes for 294 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He looked good in the first half but did next to nothing in the second half, as the Eagles came from behind to win. With the offensive pieces he has to work with, he should have had a much better game against a severely depleted Eagles secondary. He remains bad at football.

Saquon Barkley rushed 13 times for 101 yards and one touchdown, plus caught 7-of-8 targets for 41 yards and another touchdown. Somehow though, he only saw five touches in the second half. He was the offense in the first half, and they decided not to use their offense in the second half. Thankfully for fantasy, he had already put up huge numbers, but the Giants continue to be dysfunctional.

Buccaneers 27, 49ers 9
Jameis Winston completed 29-of-38 passes for 312 yards and two touchdowns, plus took seven carries for 24 yards. This was his first game without an interception this season. He had a whopping 11 over his three full games and two partial games. Of course, the 49ers had just two interceptions for the whole season, but it’s still better than the alternative.

Winston spread the ball around well, giving enough good looks to Adam Humphries and Mike Evans for strong fantasy days, but DeSean Jackson, who tied for the team lead with eight targets, only caught three for 19 yards. The targets are still a good sign, and these kinds of games are going to happen with Jackson. A blow-up game is likely on the way at some point.

Nick Mullens completed 18-of-32 passes for 221 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions while taking four sacks. The Mullens hype is dead, long live the Mullens fade.

George Kittle led the way with 12 targets, but only could come up with six receptions for 48 yards, as Mullens was not accurate. We could easily see C.J. Beathard back next week against Seattle.

Matt Breida continues to play well despite the overall lack of offense, as he rushed 14 times for 106 yards and caught 3-of-4 targets for 34 yards, which are the most receiving yards he’s had this season. He may have trouble seeing big usage numbers against Seattle next week, but Christian McCaffrey’s huge game against the Seahawks this week is a good sign for Breida next week.

Seahawks 30, Panthers, 27
Russell Wilson completed 22-of-31 passes for 339 yards and two touchdowns. He also only ran the ball three times for four yards. This was amazingly Wilson’s first 300-yard passing game of the season and the first time he topped 250 yards since Week 1. The running game wasn’t doing much, so Wilson had to start throwing the ball if the Seahawks were to have a chance to win. Maybe this game could be the push Pete Carroll and company need to give their best player more chances to actually put points on the board.

Doug Baldwin led the team with seven targets, but he didn’t even come close to leading the team in yards and touchdowns, as both Tyler Lockett and David Moore topped 100 yards and had a touchdown on five targets each, while Baldwin accumulated a measly 39 yards. Lockett and Moore continue to show that they deserve more work than the gimpy Baldwin.

Cam Newton completed 25-of-30 passes for 256 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, plus rushed eight times for 63 yards. He has now topped 21 fantasy points in eight of his 11 starts and gets Tampa Bay, Cleveland, New Orleans and Atlanta to finish off the fantasy season.

Christian McCaffrey exploded for 17 carries for 125 yards and a touchdown and 11-of-11 receptions for 112 yards and another touchdown. If you played him at DraftKings, you are probably happy with that choice! He now has nine touchdowns over his last five games after finding the end zone just once in his first six games.

Ravens 34, Raiders 17
Lamar Jackson completed 14-of-25 passes for 178 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions while adding 11 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown. This was a tale of two halves for Jackson, as he ran the ball just twice in the first half and tossed his two interceptions. After the half, he ran much more often, which helped the whole offense. Jackson made some beautiful throws and a few awful ones, but showed enough to believe he can be a dual threat in the NFL. Joe Flacco should return next week against the Falcons, but it will be interesting to see what Harbaugh does if Flacco isn’t productive and the Ravens still have a shot at the playoffs.

Chargers 45, Cardinals 10
Philip Rivers completed 28-of-29 passes for 259 yards and three touchdowns against a good Cardinals pass defense. Yes, 28 completion on 29 attempts. I think a 96.5 percent completion rate is pretty darn good, right? The previous best ever completion percentage in one game with 25 or more pass attempts was Kurt Warner, who went 24-of-26. That’s good, but not Rivers good.

Melvin Gordon had two touchdowns in this game, but had to leave in the third quarter with a knee injury. The initial diagnosis is an MCL injury, although we will need to wait on the extent. There’s little doubt that he’ll be out next week against the Steelers though, as he already was iffy to play this week with knee and hamstring problems. Austin Ekeler will be the back to roster in his place.

Josh Rosen completed 12-of-19 passes for 105 with a touchdown and an interception, and played the entire game. His touchdown and most of his yards came on the first drive, as he hit Larry Fitzgerald with a nice 25-yard touchdown. It was all downhill from there though.

David Johnson rushed 17 times for 63 yards and caught 2-of-3 targets for 16 yards. The Chargers dominated Arizona in all aspects of this game, which included Johnson, who had been getting his 100 total yards each week without much trouble with similar workloads. This was just a reminder that Johnson can be keyed on by the defense when his quarterback can only muster 105 passing yards.

Broncos 24, Steelers 17
Case Keenum completed 15-of-28 passes for 197 yards and two touchdowns. He wasn’t consistently good, yet he put together enough good throws to lead his team to a victory. He’ll remain just a 2QB-league play, but does get a strong matchup against the Bengals next week.

Phillip Lindsay rushed 14 times for 110 yards and a touchdown, seeing no targets. His lack of touches is concerning, but he continues to put up good numbers despite that annoying fact. He looked so much better than Royce Freeman did that it’s amazing the two play the same game.

Ben Roethlisberger completed 41-of-56 passes for 462 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. He had what should have been a touchdown taken away by Xavier Grimble’s fumble out of the end zone and another with a drop by Vance McDonald. Roethlisberger’s biggest error came at the end of the game when he tossed a game-ending interception that had no chance despite having another down to use. But all-in-all, he looked his usually self offensively, and if not for a few bad breaks, his fantasy day could have been huge. Keep playing him as a high-upside fantasy quarterback.

James Conner rushed 13 times for 53 yards and caught 4-of-4 targets for 42 yards, but he also lost a critical fumble. His ball security hasn’t been great this season, but I think we can chalk this one up to a good defense making big plays and a pass-heavy game plan from Pittsburgh.

Colts 27, Dolphins 24
Andrew Luck completed 30-of-37 passes for 343 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He, once again, went all-in with his tight ends in the red zone, completing two touchdowns to Eric Ebron and one to Jack Doyle, while T.Y. Hilton did the long-distance work, catching 7-of-10 targets for 125 yards.

I don’t know how you can predict when Ebron will get his touchdowns, but with 11 on the season, you just have to play him and hope he gets a target or two. Against Miami, he saw a hefty seven targets and caught five for 45 yards and his two touchdowns, but he had no targets last week. Since Jack Doyle returned, Ebron has caught five touchdowns on 11 receptions in four games.

Marlon Mack ran the ball 15 times for 85 yards and caught both his targets for 11 yards. Andrew Luck’s propensity to throw the ball near the goal line hurts Mack, but the strong offense also helps get him near the goal line. Unfortunately, Mack was forced from this game with a concussion. If he can’t be cleared in time, Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins would likely split work in his absence.

Ryan Tannehill completed 17-of-25 passes for 204 yards and two touchdowns, plus rushed three times for 14 yards. It was a positive day in comparison to what Brock Osweiler had been up to, but Tannehill and the play calling didn’t show much hope for his fantasy upside to rise anytime soon.

Kenyan Drake rushed eight times for 32 yards and a touchdown, plus caught 5-of-6 targets for 64 yards and another touchdown. His 13 touches are the most since he had 17 against Chicago in Week 6. Drake is now averaging 11.5 touches a game, and predicting when he might find the end zone is a bit maddening. He now has seven touchdowns to Gore’s one, but will remain a tough player to feel good about starting.

Vikings 24, Packers 17

Kirk Cousins completed 29-of-38 passes for 342 yards and three touchdowns in a great performance, which was good to see after a little rough patch. His 27 fantasy points Sunday night were his most since Week 4 against the Rams. His rest-of-season schedule isn’t daunting, as he’ll go to New England, at Seattle, at home against Miami and then on the road again against Detroit.

Dalvin Cook had 10 carries for 29 yards and caught three passes for 47 yards and a touchdown. He continues to have trouble on the ground, but his receiving work has kept him from some awful games in the few he has played. Next week, he gets a Patriots defense that has trouble with running backs running routes.

Stefon Diggs once again out-targeted Adam Thielen, but Thielen was able to put up 125 yards to Diggs’ 77, while both scored touchdowns. Both remain strong plays as usual.

Aaron Rodgers completed 17-of-28 passes for 198 yards and a touchdown, and he did not look good doing so. Mike McCarthy is an awful play caller, and Green Bay’s offensive line was a swinging gate, but Rodgers also was not his best. He has always had trouble with Mike Zimmer defenses, and the Packers’ receivers are mostly rookies after Davante Adams, so the hope now is that the Packers dump McCarthy and get Rodgers a beefed-up line and another strong target this offseason.

Equanimeous St. Brown caught 3-of-5 targets for 53 yards but had to leave the game with an elbow injury. These rookie receivers for the Packers are becoming a pain, and until they can get their offense clicking, only Aaron Jones and Davante Adams can be trusted.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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