Cleveland Browns: Matt Barkley, QB, USC
The Browns are a disaster. Mike Holmgren probably won't be back next year, so the new regime will look to distance itself from Brandon Weeden, who might just be the worst quarterback in the league. He still has time to prove himself because he's so young and all, but he already appears to be a sunk cost. If he continues to throw the ball like a stumbling drunk at a bar, the Browns would certainly look to draft Matt Barkley. The only issue is whether Barkley would actually agree to play for Cleveland, a la John Elway and Eli Manning. I guess it all depends on what sort of impression the new owner makes on the USC quarterback.
What happened since: Matt Barkley would have been a top-10 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. He was the top consensus prospect going into the ensuing season, but his decision to return to school proved to be disastrous, and he would admit as much if he told the truth. Barkley played very poorly, and scouts caught on to his lacking arm. I've also spoken to some NFL people who told me that they've grown tired of the whole USC gimmick. They said that USC quarterbacks are more Hollywood stars than NFL players. Is this fair to apply to Barkley? Probably not, but he brought that upon himself by not declaring early.
Miami Dolphins: Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
The Dolphins entered the 2012 offseason with a pass-rusher being one of their greatest needs. They drafted Olivier Vernon in the third round, but there's no telling if he can be a worthy complement to Cameron Wake; he didn't play much in the opener. If he doesn't show much this year, Miami won't hesitate to pull the trigger on one of the three stud pass-rushers in the 2013 NFL Draft.
What happened since: This is pretty accurate. The Dolphins moved up from No. 12 to No. 3 to grab a pass-rusher, and Barkevious Mingo went three picks after that.
Indianapolis Colts: Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia
The Colts did a great job of finding a worthy supporting cast around Andrew Luck. They'll have to use the 2013 NFL Draft to improve their defense. That includes finding an upgrade at the rush linebacker position.
I'm not sure why the Colts retained both Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis when they're in rebuilding mode, but they'll need to find someone next spring who can step in and start once either of them moves on (which very easily could be next year).
What happened since: The Colts nearly had Jarvis Jones fall to them at No. 24. They were obviously much better than anticipated, while Jones fell because of a poor workout and concerns about his back.
St. Louis Rams: Star Lotulelei, NT, Utah
Didn't the Rams just draft Michael Brockers? And didn't they recently sign Kendall Langford? Sure, but that doesn't mean they won't draft the ultra-talented Star Lotulelei. This would remind me of the Lions a couple of years ago when they took Ndamukong Suh despite having Corey Williams and Sammie Lee Hill on the roster. Lotulelei would give the Rams a really awesome rotation in the interior of the defensive front, and they could pull a move like this because of the new CBA; Lotulelei wouldn't cost as much as he would have back in 2010. Besides, the receivers and offensive tackles available at this spot would be reaches.
What happened since: Speaking of medical concerns, heart issues looked like they were going to derail Star Lotulelei's draft stock. He checked out, but never rebounded as a top-five prospect for some reason. The Panthers landed a steal at No. 14.
Buffalo Bills: Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
So, I guess Ryan Fitzpatrick has bruised ribs again. Or maybe it's some other make-believe injury. Fitzpatrick is woefully mediocre and teams have finally caught onto Chan Gailey's smoke and mirrors. It's time for the Bills to find a real quarterback. They won't be able to consistently win football games until they get one in the new pass-happy NFL.
What happened since: The Bills ended up taking a quarterback early. Tyler Wilson is another quarterback who destroyed his draft stock by going back to school. The moral of the story is, if you're a college player projected to be a first-round pick, DECLARE EARLY!
Jacksonville Jaguars: Johnathan Hankins, NT, Ohio State
It's difficult to mock for the Jaguars right now. If they finish with a terrible record, as expected, then Gene Smith could be fired, opening up a possibility for a quarterback to be taken. If Smith is not fired, then someone like Johnathan Hankins would become a possibility.
Tyson Alualu has been a major disappointment thus far, but the real reason why Hankins makes sense is because Terrance Knighton will be a free agent this offseason. Jacksonville will obviously have big shoes to fill if it can't retain him.
What happened since: Johnathan Hankins' motor and effort were questioned, which is why he fell out of the first round. The Giants did get great value with him in the middle of the second though.
Arizona Cardinals: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
The Cardinals missed out on Matt Barkley and Tyler Wilson, but they'll have to settle for Geno Smith, who had an outstanding 2012 debut against Marshall. It's not like Arizona has a choice regarding this pick. Unless one of the members of Skelekolb really impresses this season, Arizona will be in the market for a new franchise quarterback.
What happened since: Ah, remember the days when Geno Smith torched defenses and was considered a candidate to be chosen first overall? Good times. Smith fell in the 2013 NFL Draft because he turned teams off with his diva attitude.
Tennessee Titans: Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU
The Titans have zero depth behind Derrick Morgan and Kamerion Wimbley - and we don't even know if Morgan is any good yet. If he's not, the Titans will consider a defensive end early next April.
What happened since: Sam Montgomery is a bum who doesn't try hard. He admitted as much, but he was going to drop on Draft Day regardless.
Minnesota Vikings: Keenan Allen, WR, California
The Vikings have to add more talent to complement Christian Ponder. They need an upgrade across from Percy Harvin, as Jerome Simpson is way too inconsistent to be a No. 2 receiver.
What happened since: An injury and a poor 40 time derailed Keenan Allen's draft stock. There's no reason he should have fallen to the third round though.
Cincinnati Bengals: Eric Reid, S, LSU
The Bengals had a big need at safety, but they didn't address the position until the fifth round this past April. They'll put more effort into finding an upgrade the following offseason because they won't survive with Reggie Nelson and the recently benched Taylor Mays as their starters.
What happened since: The Bengals really wanted Eric Reid at No. 21, but the 49ers leapt in front of them and snagged the LSU safety at No. 18.
Philadelphia Eagles: DeMarcus Milliner, CB, Alabama
Brandon Boykin was a nice pick in the fourth round, but he won't be enough if Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie leaves via free agency. The Eagles will need a new starter across from Nnamdi Asomugha in this scenario.
DeMarcus Milliner had an awesome debut to his 2012 campaign and will be a top-15 pick if he continues to play on that level.
What happened since: Dee Milliner ended up being selected two spots earlier. He maintained this range throughout the draft process.
Seattle Seahawks: Robert Woods, WR, USC
Seattle's receiving corps is a big question mark. Sidney Rice can't stay healthy; Braylon Edwards is a big question mark; Doug Baldwin is just a slot receiver; and Golden Tate hasn't lived up to expectations yet. If this group disappoints in 2012, the Seahawks will strongly consider a wideout in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft.
What happened since: Along with Matt Barkley, Robert Woods had a miserable 2012 campaign. Some still considered him to be a first-round prospect, but it was no surprise to see him fall to the second.
Oakland Raiders: Jackson Jeffcoat, DE, Texas
The Raiders really missed Kamerion Wimbley on Monday night against the Chargers. Matt Shaughnessy couldn't get any pressure on Philip Rivers despite battling an undrafted rookie free agent left tackle.
What happened since: Jackson Jeffcoat did not declare for the 2013 NFL Draft because of an injury. I slotted him somewhere in my 2014 NFL Mock Draft.
Carolina Panthers: Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
Steve Smith will turn 34 a couple of weeks after the 2013 NFL Draft. The Panthers will need to think about finding a new No. 1 wideout for the future. A new secondary receiver also is a need. Brandon LaFell can't get open.
What happened since: Justin Hunter had tons of drops during the 2012 season, which sunk him to the second round. The Texans were going to take him at No. 27 though if DeAndre Hopkins wasn't on the board.
Kansas City Chiefs: Logan Thomas, QB, Virginia Tech
The Chiefs have one of the best rosters in the NFL if you exclude the quarterback position. I believe there's a good chance that they'll win the AFC West, but they'll suffer another early playoff exit because of Matt Cassel's limitations. Here's one way to fix that.
What happened since: Logan Thomas has tons of upside but has never developed. In fact, it seems like he's gotten worse. I put him in the second round of my 2014 NFL Mock Draft.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: David Amerson, CB, N.C. State
The Buccaneers decided they didn't like Morris Claiborne very much, so they traded out of the No. 5 spot in the 2012 NFL Draft and selected Mark Barron two picks later. They really need cornerback help, so they'll almost have to remedy that need at this juncture.
What happened since: David Amerson had great 2011 tape, but he was horrific the following season. He was torched week in, week out, and many thought he'd fall to the third round. Washington grabbed him in the middle of the second.