Here's my analysis on the Redskins/Giants game...all of my picks are free at www.blackboxsports.net ... I might post my Denver play later as well, but it's up on the site if you're interested. Good luck to all the gamblohrs in here!
The Giants have put up quite a few points this season, but have had a relatively easy schedule thus far, at least in terms of defenses they’ve played. In fact, the highest ranked defense they’ve played recently was the Patriots (7th), who held them to 26 pts. That said, the Redskins don’t qualify as having a good, or even average defense themselves, as they currently rank 31st in our Power Rankings, with a pitiful power rating of 20 (out of a 100). They can’t stop the run at all, allowing 4.8 YPC this season (t-2nd last), and also have a hard time against the pass, allowing 7.7 YPA this season. They also can’t get to the QB, and are allowing a 109 QBR and a whopping 6.4 YPP (yards per play) over the last 6 weeks….they’re just pitiful. While the Giants probably won’t be able to take advantage on the ground, Eli and company will certainly take advantage aerially.
On the other side, the Redskins do have some hope. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack at stopping the run, which will be important in this game as the Redskins try to control the clock with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. If they can keep Cousins in manageable down and distances, I like their chances of putting up a ton of points themselves. The Giants D, despite being ranked 23rd in our Power Rankings, are allowing 6.6 YPP over the last 6 weeks (worse than the Redskins) and, despite JPP playing a lot better than expected off an amputated finger, still struggle to get any pressure on the QB (I’m not buying the Patriots game – Brady has been under duress all season).
This game is shaping up to be a back and forth affair, so I like taking the home team with the free FG. I also like the situational angles here, as the Redskins are coming off a blow-out defeat to the Panthers, while the Giants are coming off a very tight loss to the undefeated Pats, and are also off a bye, which explains why this spread is moving in the direction of the Giants. The whole point of the Model is to cut thru all the noise, public bias, media hype and other crap that can move a line, so I’m not surprised it’s saying the Redskins are undervalued right now. The standard method for recommending units likes the Skins for 2 units (see above in the Statistical Model section), and so does the new method. I’m sticking with 2 units on the Redskins.
LINE MOVEMENT: This line has dropped to 2.5, indicating the professional bettors are all over the Redskins. I still like the skins for 2 units, even at 2.5, but I'm going to hold out and see if 3 pops back up again. We're not risking much by doing this, since the worst case scenario is the line moves down to 2, which isn't a big deal.
OVER-UNDER: I don't normally play over-unders, but for whatever reason I'm trying it this week for a few games. This total doesn't make sense to me - 47? Both teams can put up 30+, and a 28-24 final would actually be on the low side to me. I'm going with 1 unit on the Over.
FINAL BET: This line has dropped to +2..I'm locking this in for 2 units.
INJURY UPDATES: I don't normally post all the injuries, but considering a lot of people are scared to take the Redskins, I decided to give an update. The Giants have 2 key injuries on their Offensive Line - G Justin Pugh and C Weston Richburg (who is having a stellar season). Center is so important, so the latter is really going to hurt.
Michael H: Trent Richardson over Justin Blackmon because they can still get Kendall Wright at 22. Tannehill is too risky and will be a Dolphin. The Browns let go of Hillis for a reason.
Chris G: Blackmon is the best player available. They need to give Colt (or their future QB) a chance to be successful. They still have Hardesty at RB and/or can find a decent one later.
David P: There's a huge drop off after Richardson. However, there is only a slight one after Blackmon. They should go Richardson and try to get a Kendall Wright, Stephen Hill at their other pick.
Nick L: if the browns draft anyone other than an offensive player, the fans may storm cleveland browns stadium and throw holmgren into the lake.
Lloyd Z: It almost has to be Richardson. They lost Hillis and have basically no backfield. Richardson would immediately better that offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Morris Claiborne: 93.8%
Riley Reiff: 2.7%
Luke Kuechly: 1.9%
Dontari Poe: 1.7%
Total votes: 1,801
Selvan T: Talib is probably going to jail. Claiborne can replace him just fine.
Peter O: The Bucs should take Morris Claiborne, because Talib is going to prison and Ronde Barber is not getting younger.
Murray R: I understand that Gerald McCoy and Brian Price haven't been exactly what they hoped for, but the only thing I can think of is that the Bucs are comfortable having Eric "paid like a starting corner" Wright hold down the fort with Talib's suspension/Barber's old age and/or they believe that Poe is BPA at #5.
Ashton M: Claiborne, but Reiff seems like he could be a good surprise pick if they are concerned about Claiborne's recovery from surgery.
Austin K: Morris Claiborne. the best player available, Ronde Barber only has one more year left, and Aqib Talib is a dumba**. Enough said.
St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
Justin Blackmon: 92.2%
Riley Reiff: 5.8%
Dontari Poe: 1.0%
Luke Kuechly: 1.0%
Total votes: 1,473
Andrew B: The rams will probably take Blackmon. Though wouldn't they be better taking a starting left tackle to protect Bradford? They can still get starting wide receivers in the second round. I am voting for Reiff.
KTB: With Brandon Lloyd gone, they need to draft Blackmon. VERY slight possibility that they could draft Reiff though if they feel they can get a quality receiver in the second round.
Casey: The pick should be Reiff. Jeff Fisher is an old school coach. He believes in building from the inside out. How many years did he coach without an elite WR in Houston/Tennessee? Plus this years draft is stocked with very good WR talent. There are not a ton of LT that can protect your $60 million investment. We don't know if Adams will fall all the way to #33 and we don't know if St. Louis plans to leverage that pick. #33 holds a lot of value being the first pick of day 2 in the draft.
SC: Not sure how they can pass on Reiff here. I understand Blackmon is the best on the board, a player who would be a solid pick for them since they need some talented wide receivers. My problem is they need someone to protect Bradford more than a receiver. If he has no time to throw, you could have an elite core of receivers & still not do well.
Zack: If the Rams don't go with Blackmon here, I've heard they've shown interest in Jerry Rice.
Vaughan M: I'd say Blackmon would be a good choice, and Ryan Broyles later on. Sam Bradford would have dreams about what they could do. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Michael Floyd: 39.6%
Quinton Coples: 27.0%
Melvin Ingram: 21.0%
Riley Reiff: 12.4%
Total votes: 2,519
Billy V: Shouldn't there be a second round pick on nobody else's radar for Jacksonville?
Martin C: Even though it might be a bit early for Floyd, it's the best bet.. Jaguars need someone to get separation, if they want Gabbert to have any chance of success... Even though he's probably not gonna get it.. Ever.
Tyler E: Close between Coples and Floyd, floyd gets the edge because Gene still believes in Gabbert.
James C: I think they will attempt to trade down to take Floyd, but if they can't find a partner they will take him anyway as they are so desperate for a reciever
Jeremy C: Ingram is the pick that makes the most sense. Like you mentioned, Gene Smith doesn't like Coples and DE is a bigger need than a short armed OT.
Phillip K: They will take Floyd, they have a lot of defensive needs but I think they will do anything to make Gabbert a better QB.
Abhishek P: This has to be Floyd. IT JUST HAS TO!!! Gabbert had 0 across from MJD. Chastin West? Kassim Ossgood??? Jarrett Dillard??? NO WONDER GABBERT PLAYED SO POORLY IN HIS ROOKIE YEAR... HIS RECEIVING CORPS SUCKED!!!
Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Ryan Tannehill: 76.0%
Quinton Coples: 8.7%
Riley Reiff: 7.7%
Melvin Ingram: 7.6%
Total votes: 1,241
Joshua M: Sadly will be Tannehill, I'd rather we try out Moore for another year to see if he's anything special and then draft QB next year.
Doug R: Is Ryan Tannehill really that much of an upgrade over Moore and Garrard? Go with the safe choice in Ingram.
Nathan T: Giant holes at QB, RT, and Def End... Whose the best player?Close call between Ingram or Reiff. So clearly the choice is Tannehill (go Stephen Ross!)
Corey P: Reaching for a back-up Quarterback in the top 10 is a terrible way to improve your football team.
Peter O: This pick probably should be Quinton Coples, but i don't think it will be. For some reason the Dolphins can't get any QB's attraction, so they will have to reach for Ryan Tannehill. That's why i choose the Texas A&M prospect
Gary C: Tannehill. How could they not? They mise well get Randal El in there if they don't draft him.
Scott P: After they've whiffed on pretty much everyone, Miami will bring back the Tannehill-Sherman connection.
Martin C: Carolina should trade down. So many of these picks make sense, as a Panthers fan, i would be happy with either one. Fletcher Cox fits our system best, so they are probably looking at him with this pick.
Misone A: Stephon Gilmore was tricky. Because I don't consider him a top 10 talent I would say 15. And he would fill a need. Cam Newton was robbed of at least 4 games due to the defenses inability to stop the pass late in games (i.e. Green Bay game). And to be honest Gamble has not been good in yrs.
Julius B: I still think Morris Claiborne could make it to the 9th pick if he Bucks go with Reiff, but outside that POE is BPA on defense.
Xavier P: No doubt this pick will be Coples. Panthers need a DE and although Poe will be tempting, they'll make the smart choice and take Quinton.
Peter O: I think the Panthers should pick Luke Kuechly because of all of those injuries they have at. Just to say one: Jon Beason who ended on IR last year with achilles.
Buffalo Bills: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Riley Reiff: 51.3%
Quinton Coples: 13.1%
Luke Kuechly: 8.9%
Melvin Ingram: 7.6%
Jonathan Martin: 6.4%
David DeCastro: 5.4%
Dre Kirkpatrick: 4.2%
Stephon Gilmore: 3.2%
Total votes: 1,232
Murray R: Reiff has to be the pick since Demetrius Bell is MIA, I don't trust anything that comes out of GB concerning free agents.
David P: Fitz is no good but the Bills should show him some respect by taking the best on the board and giving him some help on a horrible line. Reiff.
Vaughan M: Luke Kuechly. Quenton Coples would be one of the worst picks in the draft. Reiff would be filling a need but not as big of a one as Kuechly does.
Doug M: This pick is much more difficult to judge now that the Bills have thrown gobs of money towards their D-Line. I would say that the best investment with a top 10 pick at this juncture would be to protect the person they threw inordinate amounts of money at last year and select Reiff.
Peter O: They need to take Riley Reiff. Protection to Ryan Fitzpatrick is important(No s*** sherlock...)
Abhishek P: Rieff seems like the option that makes sense. Top ten prospect, will open the running game up, and will provide some protection for Zach Galifianakis...
Misone A: This pick will and it has to be Riley Reiff! Like I said before the bills haven't had a legit tackle since God and light. Its time to cash in.
Dennis T: Has to be Reiff so that whichever QB the Bills draft next year will be protected.
David G: Where is the inevitable pass catching running back that the Bills will take and not need?
Kansas City Chiefs: David DeCastro, G, Stanford
David DeCastro: 46.3%
Luke Kuechly: 16.0%
Quinton Coples: 12.4%
Melvin Ingram: 10.0%
Dre Kirkpatrick: 6.7%
Fletcher Cox: 5.2%
Stephon Gilmore: 3.3%
Total votes: 1,278
Peter O: Kansas City has to adress the interior off their O-Line. Some would mean that this is to high for a Guard to get drafted, but when it's the best OG coming out of college, you better grab him!
Tevin F: The chiefs brought in CIA running back Peyton Hillis in order to debug the place. His reward: David DeCastro.
Rodrigo M: Melvin Ingram could be the pick, I can?t imagine the Chiefs drafting a G with the 11th overall pick....
Kyle M: I can't see the Chiefs passing up DeCastro. The line would be set for a while if they go with him. Going for Kirkpatrick or Gilmore would mean they're not confident in Routt or Arenas, Coples and Cox don't fill any needs, they seem happy enough with Justin Houston so Ingram is out. Kuechly is a possibility on talent alone, but he doesn't fill a need either. DeCastro does, and he has the talent to back it up.
Jacob G: Personally if I were the Chiefs, I would try and replicate 2005-2006, they had one of the best o-lines in the league as well as a great RB (at the time), they've got 2 RB's that could be great (Hillis & Charles) if given a great O-Line, as well as a potentially All-Pro LT, but they need a great guard to compliment this. That's why the Chiefs need to draft DeCastro.
Seattle Seahawks: Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
Luke Kuechly: 34.5%
Quinton Coples: 34.4%
Melvin Ingram: 21.3%
Fletcher Cox: 4.0%
Dre Kirkpatrick: 3.8%
Stephon Gilmore: 2.0%
Total votes: 2,509
Andrew M: Ingram. Linebackers can be found later, Corner isn't a big need and Cox isn't on the same level, talent-wise, as the two DEs. Ingram also fits their hybrid look better.
Abhishek P: Coples satisfies an immense need and provides excellent value. He has the size, speed and power to be a dominant pass rusher for a really long time. Not to mention, Chris Clemons is aging and some youth is desperately needed on that line.
David P: Ingram or Coples. I take Ingram due to his combine and pro day performances. Coples is a lazy slob and Ingram is a monster. The Seahawks desperately need somebody on the other side of Clemons. Ingram would be a rather nice complement to the end of that line.
Andrew N: Ingram. Carroll loves guys who are versatile. Ingram could play the LEO or DE. Coples is too much of a risk for a team that needs to win now.
Stav B: Ingram. It's in Seattle's best interest to make sure Sam Bradford gets shell shocked and wreck his career. According to Gregg Williams of course.
Jeremy C: Seahawks seem uninterested in re-signing their current LB's, so to me it looks like they are targeting Kuechly in round 1. Not to mention they have already invested in DL through FA, so it's time to build their LB corps.
Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
Jonathan Martin: 38.9%
Melvin Ingram: 22.4%
Quinton Coples: 18.7%
Cordy Glenn: 7.8%
Courtney Upshaw: 4.2%
Dre Kirkpatrick: 4.2%
Fletcher Cox: 1.9%
Stephon Gilmore: 2.0%
Total votes: 2,357
Jeremy B: As the only cardinals fan on this site i have to say PLEASE don't pick martin, the coaches and the GM all say they hate them, and he is not a grimm type of player, Mike Adams would of been my pick if he was up there, but i went with Glenn from Georgia who is exactly what our line needs.
Peter O: If Arizona ever wants Kevin Kolb to be succesful, they need to give him better protection. Jonathan Martin could turn out to be a franchise LT.
Stav B: Ingram, Arizona's defense played pretty well down the stretch without a pass rush. They should properly welcome Matt Flynn to the division.
Rodrigo M: The Cards may go with Melvin Ingram if that?s the case, they need some pass rush help and I don?t believe Jonathan Martin will be picked in the top 20. So Ingram would be nice add!
Chris R: It won't be Martin. AZ scouts/people on record as telling him he should stay at Stanford another year.
Abhishek P: The Cardinals need to improve their putrid line. Its really that simple. Kevin Kolb was a huge investment for them not to protect and Martin excelled for many years keeping Andrew Luck upright... He has the feet and instincts and tenacity to be a great starter for many years. This isn't much of a reach either, since Martin is a top 15 OT prospect.
Jesse R: Why are people voting for Martin? The guy is overrated.
Cardinals will go with Ingram, only because they are set a DE. It will be hard passing a talent like Coples. Too bad 350 people are idiots and voted for Martin.
Dallas Cowboys: Quinton Coples, DE/DT, North Carolina
Quinton Coples: 26.2%
Dre Kirkpatrick: 22.2%
Mark Barron: 17.7%
Melvin Ingram: 13.6%
Stephon Gilmore: 6.3%
Cordy Glenn: 5.8%
Fletcher Cox: 5.0%
Peter Konz: 3.2%
Total votes: 2,939
David P: The Cowboys need some help. Sure they could bolster their pass rush and take Ingram. That'd be a scary duo coming at you with Ware on the other side. But they are so thin at corner even with the acquisition of Brandon Carr. Drafting Kirkpatrick could suddenly give the Cowboys a very respectable pass defense to pair with their pass rush.
Andrew M: If I keep saying Ingram I'm going to have to be right sooner or later, so I went with Kirkpatrick. He seems like a Jerry Jones kinda guy. Character problems, drug arrests and high upside.
Stav B: The Cowboys secondary cant cover people. Dre Kirkpatrick on the other hand...
Long N: Ingram is huge pass rushing talent hanging over there. Sure they franchised Spencer, but they can let him go after this season after Ingram learns to play 3-4 Rush OLB. Spencer is also average pass rusher and Ingram could be immediate upgrade on 3rd and passing downs. I don't like Kirkpatrick's physicality and imo he is about 20th pick talent.
Rodrigo N: The Cowboys may go with a CB here, Dre Kirkpatrick would be nice. They need another CB, Mike Jenkins will be a Free Agent in 2013 and the Cowboys can?t afford two 50 million CB + Orlando "Overpayed" Scandrick!!
Abhishek P: In this situation, the pick WILL BE COPLES. He is by far the best player available, and he can enhance that interior Pass-rush, giving the Cowboys a better chance to get after the likes of Eli Manning, Micheal Vick and RG3. With his size and skill set he can do exceptionally well in the 3-4 as a DE. In his sophomore year as an interior rusher, Coples excelled at getting to the QB, using his raw power to destroy offensive line. Not to mention Coples is a Physical Specimen with immense star power, 2 things Jerry Jones covets in his prospects. Its an obvious choice in my opinion.
Doug M: Coples at 15 just reeks like a Jerry Jones type pick. If Coples can have the consistent motor to go with his physical tools, then him and Ware will be a pretty intimidating front for some time. As for the secondary, I think Barron and Kirkpatrick are a reach at 15. Especially with 50 million invested in Carr, I would think if Jones coveted a CB or Safety, he would attempt to trade down first.
Dave P: I dont like Coples. If DeCastro is there, it's a no brainer to me, no matter what McShay says. Cox would be ok, and then they can move Ratliff to end, but I would take Barron over Cox or Coples assuming DeCastro isnt there. He is my first choice
Tom D: Picked Konz because I think Jerry will trade down. He didn't do that for the first time last year, but he's been hinting he will this year.
Philadelphia Eagles: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
Fletcher Cox: 49.1%
*** Jonathan Martin accidentally was listed (received about 20%) ***
Michael Brockers: 19.2%
Mark Barron: 13.2%
Cordy Glenn: 11.6%
Dre Kirkpatrick: 4.5%
Stephon Gilmore: 2.2%
Total votes: 1,431
Jeremy B: I voted for martin, because i hope this means, that walt thinks that the cardinals will trade martin away, so we can get a better player then what the readers picked for us!
Murray R: I don't know why, but Michael Brockers screams Andy Reid to me.
Peter O: I voted Martin as well. PHI will need a replacement for Jason Peters. Who knows? Does he ever get to be so good again? Martin would be a natural starter at RT in most offenses, but because PHI's QB (QB DOG KILLER) is left handed, he could start at LT
Long N: Without Jason Peters going down for year (and maybe longer) I would vote for Fletcher Cox, but if they couldn't sign anybody from FA this pick will be Cordy Glenn. He is athletic for his size and similar to Peters in some categories.
Timothy S: If Cox is still there, I think he will be the pick. Jonathan Martin may be selected here though in light of the Jason Peters injury.
Abhishek P: This pick is too easy. Coach Fatass loves to draft high motor and high upside defensive lineman. Cox has the ability to get to the QB and can track down HBs in the backfield. He can take double teams, has good work ethic and can create havok on the line, opening up for the rest of his teammates. Having Cox, Jenkins, Babin, and Cole all on the same line would scare the crap out of me as a Giants fan...
Misone A: This pick will be Jonathon Martin. I like Cordy Glenn more but Martin has better feet. They both will be rt tkls so feet doesn't seem as if it will be as important as the lt tkl position. But the QB is Michael Vick and he throws left handed, theoretically making the rt tkl the lt tkl. After losing their starting rt tkl to an achilles injury there is no way he will play this yr. Too much weight on a destroyed heel to heal quickly. And Andy Reid loves drafting guys in the trenches early.
Dylan C: Cox just makes too much sense which is why they probably won't draft him. They never draft what other people are thinking, like Watkins (who picks 27 year old guards in the 1st?), Brandon Graham (We took the 3-4 OLB over Earl Thomas why?), and Maclin (not complaining, but who saw that coming?), the 2 years before we traded out of the first one year with a division rival, no one saw that coming.
Rodrigo M: It will be a DT, Brockers is a possibility but Fletcher Cox is the Andy Reid type of draft pick.
New York Jets: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
Melvin Ingram: 43.8%
Courtney Upshaw: 21.8%
Mark Barron: 12.0%
Kendall Wright: 9.0%
Whitney Mercilus: 4.6%
Cordy Glenn: 3.8%
Nick Perry: 3.2%
Dre Kirkpatrick: 1.8%
Total votes: 1,870
Timothy S: Pick will be Melvin Ingram, I think. The Jets are thirsty for a legitimate pass rusher and Ingram is the best 3-4 OLB pass rusher available.
Chris G: I like Ingram but voted for Upshaw... because Upshaw is the kind of physical specimen the Jets usually covet (see Vernon Ghoulston)
David P: As a Jets fan, I want Upshaw. I've done extensive research on Ingram and Upshaw because face it, one of the two is going to be there. Upshaw is the better, safer pick. Upshaw is more pro ready playing in Saban's 3-4. He may not have the speed Ingram has but he makes up for it in pure passion and competitiveness. Upshaw has Ingram in leverage, power, strength, and honestly, smarts. Ingram has nice speed and wouldn't be a bad consolation prize if Upshaw were already gone; however, I want the guy who's ready to play now and a bit more polished than the project of Ingram.
Rob N: If this happens the Jets will be doing jumping jacks because they get a pick of the elite outside linebackers in this draft class. Ingram seems to have picked up steam of late thus he is the pick.
Evan B: It has to be a DE/OLB since all of the Jet's OLB are getting old/or have left (Calvin Pace) And Melvin Ingram is the best available so I picked him.
Kyle M: I don't think the Jets will hesitate to take Ingram if he's available. If he isn't, it will probably be Upshaw, with an outside chance for Barron and Wright.
Rodrigo M: The Jets Defense are lacking pass rush for a long time, Melvin Ingram, if he falls all the way to the half of the 1st round would be picked here, no brainer!!
Abhishek P: The Jets have a plathora of needs, so I see them taking the BPA. Whats so convienient about this situation, is Melvin Ingram is a top 10 prospect making him the best player on the board, and one of the Jets biggest needs is finding a pass-rusher... Pretty sick how that works out. Anyway, Ingram is solid because he has the perfect body and playstyle to be an OLB in the 3-4. Ingram is uber athletic, quick, fluid and great at getting to the QB. He has a great work ethic and a solid motor. This pick makes the most sense with this reasoning...
Jonathan M: Rex Ryan misses Suggs. Ingram comes from a complex defense, and fits what the jets like to do. If I were a jets fan, I'd want Ingram.