@FrenchNick Pegula still has the name Bill Polian in the back of his mind...and if the entire front office is blown up, look for Polian to become the new President and his son possibly new GM. In this case, I see the Bills trading out of No. 2, if they end up there, grabbing additional picks and taking the best receiver available w/ their first pick. Then, wherever there's a Polian, a Kelly cannot be far behind. The Bills take Chad Kelly in either the high second round or by trading back into the late first.
I had an NFL Draft Rumors section last year that I updated daily. It came quite handy when compiling my 2013 NFL Draft, plus all of the rumors were fun to look at. As I was compiling my 2014 NFL Draft Rumors page, I wondered which national reporters and local writers were the most accurate with their breaking news, sources and information.
I took a glance back and counted how many "wins" and "losses" each reporter had. I didn't look at whom they slotted in their mock drafts - BSports.com did a good job of that - but rather, my task was delving into reports that said "Team X really likes Player A," or "Team Y plans to trade up."
I've also included the top 10 best reports and top 10 worst reports for 2013, so check those out below the following wins and losses (Note that these aren't exactly ordered by percentage; getting a report right is difficult, so I wanted to award those who had more correct. As a result, it's sort of a mixture). Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Adam Schefter: 5-3
Daniel Jeremiah: 3-1
Jason Cole: 2-0
Tony Pauline: 6-5
Chris Mortensen: 4-3
Adam Caplan: 2-1
Charlie Campbell: 3-3
Jason La Canfora: 3-4
Ian Rapoport: 2-3
Peter King: 4-8
Albert Breer: 1-0
Charley Casserly: 1-0
Jay Glazer: 1-0
Mike Mayock: 1-0
Clark Judge: 1-0
Gil Brandt: 0-1
John Clayton: 0-1
Mel Kiper: 0-1
Paul Kuharsky: 0-1
Todd McShay: 0-1
Solomon Wilcots: 0-1
Brian Baldinger: 0-2
Matt Miller: 0-2
Sal Paolantonio: 0-2
Mike Jurecki: 3-0
Jeff McLane: 2-0
Mary Kay Cabot: 2-1
Matt Barrows: 1-0
Bryan Broaddus: 1-0
Steve Corkran: 1-0
Mike Klis: 1-0
John McClain: 1-0
Tim McManus: 1-0
Jordan Raanan: 1-0
Armando Salguero: 1-0
Vito Stellino: 1-0
Jim Thomas: 1-0
Charean Williams: 1-0
Jim Wyatt: 1-0
Ben Goessling: 1-1
Tony Grossi: 1-1
Peter Schrager: 1-1
Rich Cimini: 1-2
Scott Bischoff: 0-1
Keith Britton: 0-1
Tommy Lawlor: 0-1
Manish Mehta: 0-1
Geoff Mosher: 0-1
Joe Person: 0-1
Dan Pompei: 0-1
Jeff Sullivan: 0-1
Ben Volin: 0-1
Lance Zerlein: 0-2
Bill Williamson: 0-2
Top 10 Best 2013 NFL Draft Reports
10. Peter King got a lot wrong last year - as you can see above - but he had the Falcons moving up:
"Hearing the Falcons are trying to trade up from number 30 in the first round." - Peter King
9. Some were surprised that the quarterbacks fell in the 2013 NFL Draft. Not those who listened to Adam Schefter:
"After AZ, OAK and BUF each made QB moves last week, one NFL GM predicted 'these quarterbacks in this draft are going to fall like logs.'" - Adam Schefter.
8. I mocked Lane Johnson to the Eagles, but the Philadelphia Inquirer's Jeff McLaine had it first:
"Two independent NFL insiders told The Inquirer that the new Birds coach has zeroed in on Johnson even if top-rated tackles Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher are on the board." - Jeff McLane, Philadelphia Inquirer
7. Chris Mortensen called the Cardinals picking Jonathan Cooper. Too bad Cooper got hurt.
"If (Lane Johnson) isn't there, don't be surprised if the Cardinals pick Jonathan Cooper, the UNC guard." - Chris Mortensen
6. It's tough to call picks in the teens. Tony Pauline did it:
"Right now I'm told Vaccaro could end up with the New Orleans Saints, who own the 15th selection." - Tony Pauline
5. Charlie Campbell's Rams' source came through:
"St. Louis really loves Alec Ogletree. The Rams are expected to go safety and linebacker over a receiver in the first round, though Tavon Austin and Cordarrelle Patterson are in play." - Charlie Campbell
4. Tony Pauline had the Raiders trading down:
"Word from few people today is Oakland Raiders may have a trade in place to move down a few slots."
3. Speaking of predicted trades:
"Increasing chatter of SF coming up into top 15. 49ers looking to strengthen an already tough defense." - Adam Schefter
2. Two team reporters stood out. One was Mike Klis, who wrote the following:
"Know this: The Broncos will draft a cornerback, running back and defensive lineman in the first three rounds. Maybe in that order." - Mike Klis, Denver Post
Denver didn't go corner, running back and defensive lineman in that order, but those are the positions they chose in the first three rounds.
1. FOX Sports 910's Mike Jurecki absolutely nailed the Cardinals' draft. Look at three separate reports:
"I don't think they will take a QB in the first round." - Mike Jurecki
Mike Jurecki is hearing the Cardinals could target Kevin Minter or anothr linebacker.
"Hearing that AZ may look at Tyrann Mathieu today, the thought is he could play a little safety & corner in certain packages, play maker." - Mike Jurecki
Top 10 Worst 2013 NFL Draft Reports
10. Everyone screwed up on Geno Smith. EVEYRONE. Here were reports indicating the Jaguars would take him:
"Geno Smith will be a top-five draft pick. There isn't any doubt about it. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him go in the top three. Specifically, to Jacksonville second overall." - Jason La Canfora
"The Jaguars are interested [in Geno Smith], preliminarily at No. 2." - Peter King
"The Jaguars are meeting with Geno Smith as we speak. They have a lot of interest." - Todd McShay
9. How about Geno Smith to the Raiders?
"Word around the NFL is the Raiders have interest in Geno Smith with that third overall pick in the draft. Now I can't get this confirmed by the team, but Geno Smith is a guy that everybody sees as a top-10 pick right now -- not everybody -- but he's got a chance to go in the top ten. And if the Raiders do like him, you better take him at No. 3." - Chris Mortensen
"Rumor mill is working through the league that Oakland scouts love Geno Smith. Front office is ready for a new QB." - Matt Miller.
8. No Geno Smith to the Jaguars or Raiders, but how about the Eagles?
The Houston Chronicle's Lance Zerlein on mocking Geno Smith to the Eagles: 'I was told to 'plug Geno in here' by a league source and I usually listen when this guy speaks."
"From what I'm hearing the Eagles are serous about Geno Smith and it's not a smokescreen. They're dead serious." - Sal Paolantonio on 97.5 Philadelphia
7. Surely the Browns would pick Geno!
"I'm told the Browns like Geno Smith. And Brandon Weeden is not from the new regime." - Todd McShay
"Don't let Jason Campbell fool you: Browns want a QB in this draft, and they get one." - Peter King, who has Geno Smith going to the Browns at No. 11 (and previously to the Jaguars as well).
6. Speaking of quarterbacks, some believed the Bills would choose one. Ian Rapoport had some good calls, but he made it seem like the Bills were desperate for a signal-caller who would eventually be taken in the fourth round:
"The more I hear from people involved in the situation, the Bills are going to take Ryan Nassib and not risk losing him." - Ian Rapoport
5. Every player is projected to fall at some point:
"According to league source, Cordarrelle Patterson may fall out of the 1st." - Lance Zierlein, Houston Chronicle. The NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah backed this up, tweeting, "I've been hearing this a lot."
4. There was tons of Manti Te'o speculation. Adam Schefter reported that he would be chosen in the first round. Meanwhile, Te'o was linked to one specific team:
John Clayton said that the Vikings would like to find a way to land Manti Te'o.
3. I listed some predicted trades earlier. Here was one that was way off:
"The Cowboys are NOT looking to move down. They are definitely interested in trading up or staying at 18." - Jeff Sullivan, DallasCowboys.com
2. I don't think anyone took this one seriously considering the source:
"Text I received from a scout this morning: Matt Barkley will not get past the Arizona #Cardinals at No. 7 overall." - Matt Miller
Mike Mayock even laughed it off during an NFL Network broadcast.
1. Adam Schefter was the most reliable draft reporter, but it just goes to show that everyone is way wrong sometimes:
"It will not surprise me one bit if Barkley still goes in the top half of the first round of the draft. Look at all the teams in the top 10 that have quarterback questions: Jacksonville, Oakland, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Arizona, Buffalo and the New York Jets. Would you be floored if any of those teams decided to use their first-round pick on a quarterback, or Barkley in particular? Not really. Barkley will go in the first round -- I don't have any doubt about that. But it will be a bit more challenging to be the first quarterback off the board." - Adam Schefter
Ouch. At least Schefter got a bunch of other things correct.