2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Eagles at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Questions from Conrad, where I discuss the odd questions my son asked me one morning.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles are coming off two win and covers, but they haven’t played their best. They’ll have some reinforcements to help them, however, as Lane Johnson and Jalen Carter are set to return to action.

Any Philadelphia fan knows how huge Johnson’s presence is. No matter who the quarterback has been, whether it’s Jalen Hurts, Carson Wentz, or Nick Foles, that signal-caller has performed far worse without Johnson. There’s no telling if Johnson will be 100 percent in his first game back, but if he’s close to full strength, Hurts will have much more time in the pocket. He’ll need it against a strong Buffalo pass rush and secondary.

Saquon Barkley will also benefit from Johnson’s presence. Barkley has had a rough year, but is coming off a strong performance at Washington. The Redskins have a putrid run defense, but so do the Bills. Barkley will have an opportunity to rip off some big gains in this contest.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Johnson is probably the most important player on the Eagles, but Jalen Carter is up there as well. Carter is a force in the interior, and in his absence, Philadelphia’s defense doesn’t play as well against the run and offers less of a pass rush.

Carter returning is huge for this matchup. The Bills have a strong rushing attack led by James Cook, so containing him will be paramount because it’ll force Josh Allen into long-yardage situations in which he has to target his awful receivers. Carter’s presence will allow that to happen.

Allen, of course, will want to throw to his tight ends, but no team is better at defending the position than the Eagles. Allen will also want to scramble, but the Eagles surrender the fifth-fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Oh, and Allen is also dealing with an injury he suffered against the Browns and may not be 100 percent.

RECAP: While we don’t know if Johnson and Carter will be fully healthy in their first game back, having them on the field can’t possibly hurt. The Eagles have high upside to perform at peak potential in this game.

Conversely, the Bills do not have the potential to perform at peak ability, especially if Carter is healthy enough to help the Eagles shut down the run. The Eagles can take away Allen’s preferred method of his attack – scrambling, tight ends – similarly to what the Browns were able to accomplish last week.

If you couldn’t tell, I’m on the Eagles. They’re healthier now, and they seem to match up very favorably against the Bills. Plus, Allen could be hindered by the injury he suffered last week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Pick change, and not just because Lane Johnson was DNP on Wednesday. Something I should have considered was that the Eagles had their two recent wins against Kenny Pickett and Josh Johnson, and they looked like they’d have issues defeating the Redskins with Marcus Mariota under center. The Bills are obviously a huge step up in class for them.

SATURDAY NOTES: Apparently, there was some thought that Josh Allen could sit this game because of his foot injury. If the Patriots win, this will be a meaningless game for Buffalo, so I don’t think we can completely count out Allen resting, even though the Bills said he will start. I have no interest in this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have pounded the Bills this morning, taking the line to -3. I might end up betting the Bills based on how the early games go.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, the sharps bet the Bills at less than -3, but not at -3. I’m going to place one unit on the Bills. The best line is -3 -110 at almost every sportsbook.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.

Computer Model: Bills -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 54% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.