NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2025 – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

Football is back! It’s been a long summer, but the 2025 NFL season is finally here. We’ll be posting our picks every Tuesday, as usual.

We had a losing season last year, but we did very well Week 8 onward. I realized then that I was falling into some stupid traps, so I made the correct adjustments and went 79-63 between Weeks 8 and 17. I do an audit of my picks during the summer and discovered other things that could really help us this year. I’m expecting a massive 2025 season.

Also, if you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. We already have features available for premium subscribers like detailed injury reports. We’re also working on some other things as well. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

At any rate, I’m looking forward to this season. I’ve done a lot of research this summer to refine my handicapping. We’re coming off a great year, and I think this season could be even better!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: We have to begin with the Eagles’ offense because that’s where the news is concerning this game. I’m referring to the Micah Parsons trade, of course (check here for the NFL Trade Grades.) The Cowboys already had some holes on their defense, and now they’ll be missing Parsons, who really enhanced the unit last year when he played. When Parsons missed action, Dallas’ defense was far worse.

With Parsons gone, the Cowboys won’t generate much pressure on Jalen Hurts. The reigning Super Bowl MVP will be able to do whatever he pleases in the pocket. He’ll also run circles around the Cowboys and their weak linebacker corps, which won’t have DeMarvion Overshown anytime soon.

The greatest mismatch on this side of the ball is Philadelphia’s front versus Dallas’ weak defensive line. The Cowboys struggled against the run last year, while the Eagles run the ball better than any team in the NFL. Hurts and Saquon Barkley will eat up big chunks on the ground.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys won’t be able to stop the Eagles, so their only chance of being competitive in this game is to keep pace with them on the scoreboard. I imagine some people will believe this is possible because Dallas possesses big fantasy names like Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens, but I don’t believe this is true.

The Cowboys have two big problems on this side of the ball, especially pertaining to this matchup. The first is that their offensive line is mediocre. They have some injuries up front, and they already weren’t very good in that area. The Eagles have one of the top defensive fronts in the NFL, so they’ll be able to win in the trenches rather easily on this side of the ball.

The second issue is that the Cowboys have a one-dimensional offense. They have absolutely no running game to speak of, which means they’ll be easy to defend. Elite defenses can devour one-dimensional offenses, so Philadelphia won’t allow Dallas to do very much.

RECAP: There’s a huge disparity between the Eagles and the Cowboys. Philadelphia is an elite team, ranked in Group A of the NFL Power Rankings, while Dallas is a Group D squad. This spread should be about -10, so I like the Eagles to cover.

The only thing that worries me concerning this spread is that because it’s north of seven, we’re going to be open to a back-door cover. With the Chiefs on the horizon next week, the Eagles may take their foot off the gas in the second half, which would allow Dallas to sneak within a touchdown in the final minutes. Then again, the Eagles absolutely hate the Cowboys, so they may decide to step on their arch rival’s throat.

I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Eagles. I think the best thing to do with them this week is tease them down to -1.5. We’ll need to find another leg for this teaser, which I will do in the coming days.

LOCKED IN: This spread has moved to -8 in most sportsbooks. It’s even jumped to -8.5 -105 at DraftKings. FanDuel still has -7.5 -110 available, so let’s locked that in right now. Note that $25 of this bet will be boosted 50 percent, which is a promo available on FanDuel. Another will be a no-sweat for $10. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m glad we locked in the Eagles at -7.5 because this line is now -8.5 at many sportsbooks. It wouldn’t shock me to see a -9 at some point on Thursday to potentially get people off Philadelphia teasers. There are no injuries of note here outside of the players who were already on PUP.

PLAYER PROPS: I love Jake Ferguson over receiving yards tonight. The Cowboys will be playing from behind, so they’ll be throwing the ball often. Ferguson has a great matchup, given that the Eagles have a tight end-funnel defense. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: DraftKings is offering a parlay boost up to $15. We’re going to bet Jake Ferguson over 38.5 receiving yards, DeVonta Smith over 54.5 receiving yards, Saquon Barkley over 95.5 rushing yards, and Eagles -5.5. Smith should have a big game like he did versus Dallas last time because A.J. Brown is bothered by a hamstring injury. Barkley figures to trample over Dallas’ poor defense. And the Eagles -5.5 is safer via a back-door cover scenario. This $15 parlay pays $168.75. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

wAlt Line: We’re looking at a wAlt line for tonight, which would be Eagles -19.5 +285 at DraftKings. We can get a slightly better number elsewhere, but DraftKings is offering a no-sweat bet up to $25. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cowboys continue their stupidity by activating Miles Sanders over Jaydon Blue, the only running back on Dallas’ roster who has any explosive ability. Unbelievable. Anyway, there was sharp action on the Cowboys at -7.5 and a bit at -8, but not at -8.5. You can still get a great -8 at BetMGM for -102 vig. Good luck to those tonight and for the rest of the season. Let’s have a great year!

TOUCHDOWN SCORING BETS: DraftKings has a couple of boosts. They’re listing Jalen Hurts to score a touchdown at +150 instead of their normal price of -145. They’re also offering a 50-percent boost on a touchdown scorer, so we’re going to take Saquon Barkley from -175 to -116. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

LIVE BET: Just bet the Eagles -3.5 +105. Not sure how much longer this Cowboys charade will continue. I got that line on DraftKings, but it has since fallen to -3.5 -110. You can still get -3.5 -104 at FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Eagles -11.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Decent money on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 67% (398,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs had issues scoring at times last year despite having the best quarterback in the NFL. Pass protection was a big problem, particularly at left tackle. Kansas City took the appropriate measures to ensure that their blocking will be improved this year by spending a first-round pick on Josh Simmons. While Simmons is just a rookie, he’s had a promising enough training camp to make Kansas City believe that it’ll have much better blocking than it did at left tackle a year ago.

The Chiefs will also have more weapons for Patrick Mahomes this year. Rashee Rice is suspended, but Marquise Brown is healthy. The Chiefs also like Brashard Smith, who will be a pass-catcher out of the backfield. The Chargers have a shaky secondary, so I don’t think these players, as well as Xavier Worthy, will have issues getting open.

Kansas City should be able to run the ball rather well, too. The Chargers project to have a poor run defense, while Isiah Pacheco figures to be fully recovered from the injury he suffered a year ago. Pacheco returned early from injury last season, but clearly was never 100 percent. That will be different to begin 2025.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Chiefs had issues protecting on the edge last year, the Chargers thrived in that department. They had elite play at tackle, with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt performing at a high level. Well, the turntables will be turning because Slater is out for the year. Alt will move to left tackle, but right tackle will be a liability with Trey Pipkins slated to start there.

The Chiefs can get to the quarterback rather well, and I imagine coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will figure out how to rattle Justin Herbert. The Charger quarterback also has more weapons this year with Keenan Allen and two rookies joining the receiver corps, but with diminished time in the pocket, there won’t be as many big-play opportunities as there would be if Slater were still on the field.

The Chargers, naturally, will try to run the ball as much as possible because that’s what Jim Harbaugh loves to do. If Harbaugh is able to establish the run, it’ll be the first time he’s ever done so versus Kansas City as the Chargers’ head coach. No Charger back reached 40 rushing yards in either matchup last year.

RECAP: The consensus this year is that the Chiefs will disappoint, perhaps losing early in the playoffs or not even winning the division. People point to all of their close games last year as evidence of this team being overrated.

I can certainly understand the argument, but I completely disagree with it. Their close calls were last year, and this is a new season. The Chiefs, who will have better left tackle play this year, were going through the motions in most of their games in 2024. This was understandable, given that they were reigning two-time Super Bowl champions. They were humiliated in the Super Bowl this past season, however, so I think that will serve as motivation this year. And perhaps this is anecdotal, but the Chiefs played with enthusiasm in their third preseason game where the starters were on the field into the second quarter. They looked energized and happy to be on the football field. I did not see that from them at all last year. It could be possible that losing ignited their passion so they can redeem themselves.

Oh, and last I checked, the Chiefs still have the best quarterback in the NFL and the best head coach in the NFL. It seems ridiculous to me that people are writing off the Chiefs just because they couldn’t beat teams by more than three points a year ago when they didn’t seem to be giving full effort most weeks.

I believe the Chiefs will give full effort in this game. Not only are they playing their first game since their Super Bowl beatdown; this is a divisional rivalry on a national stage in a different country. They’ll be fired up to prove that they’re still the best team in the NFL, and they’ll have Andy Reid aiding them with a brilliant game plan. Reid is terrific when he has extra time to prepare. He’s 8-4 against the spread in Week 1 as Chiefs head coach (4-2 ATS with Mahomes), and this will be only the fourth time that he’s priced -3 or less.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think we may see some -3.5s soon, so I want to lock in this pick. We’re not even getting a great -3 in most places because many books have -3 -115 listed. Some books, like Bally’s and BetRivers, have the Chiefs at -3.5, so that’s why I think we might be headed in that direction. As with the Eagles-Cowboys game, there are no significant injuries. You can still get -3 -110 at Caesars and Bookmaker. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS: I didn’t include this in the video I posted last night…

But I like Omarion Hampton over receiving yards. The Chargers will be missing multiple linemen, and they’ll be playing from behind, so Justin Herbert will dump the ball off to his new running back often. The best number is over 12.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel. Ten dollars of this will be no-sweat via promo.

FanDuel also has a 50-percent boost on this game. I’m going to take Chiefs moneyline -168 down to -112. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

As for touchdown scorers, we’re going with Xavier Worthy +130 for 0.3 units, and Noah Gray +430 and Tyquan Thornton +900 for 0.1 units each. The Worthy and Gray bets will be made from previously earned bonus bets.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: DraftKings is offering a 50-percent boost on same-game parlays, up to $30. We’re going to bet Chiefs moneyline, Omarion Hampton over 13.5 receiving yards, and Isiah Pacheco over 48.5 rushing yards +563. This $30 parlay pays $168.90.

BetMGM has a 20-percent boost on a same-game parlay, up to $10. This parlay will be similar: Chiefs moneyline, Xaiver Worthy over 60.5 receiving yards, Isiah Pacheco over 48.5 receiving yards, Tyler Conklin under 18.5 receiving yards +750.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Chargers, but not enough to drive this line to +2.5. Some sportsbooks moved this line to -3.5 (BetRivers, Bally’s, Fanatics), but some of them still have -3 -110 listed (BetMGM, Caesars). In fact, you can get -3 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

LIVE BET: I can’t believe the Chiefs are now +3.5 after one touchdown. I’m betting them for half a unit at +3.5 -114 at FanDuel.

LIVE BET: Just bet Patrick Mahomes 60+ rushing yards +136 for one unit and Patrick Mahomes 70+ rushing yards +450 for 0.3 units.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chiefs will be out to redeem themselves from the ugly Super Bowl loss.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Chiefs -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Public money on the Chiefs, sharp money on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 53% (310,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. Publicly backed sides were 48-43 ATS through 18 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

The Lions are a weird one, but I think people are looking at that as a great opportunity to bet an underdog that went 15-2 last year.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s odd that the Steelers and Jets traded quarterbacks this offseason without trading quarterbacks, and now they’ll be battling each other in Week 1. The consensus is that the Steelers got the upper hand in the swap, though Jets fans who watched Aaron Rodgers disappoint would certainly argue against that.

Of course, they haven’t seen Justin Fields play yet. Fields has obvious ability as a runner, but has struggled in training camp when throwing the ball. This presents a big problem against the Steelers because Mike Tomlin is one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL. Tomlin also happened to see Fields every day in practice last year, so he’ll know his weaknesses more than anyone. Armed with a defense packed with talent, Tomlin will be able to create the perfect game plan to defeat Fields. Keep in mind that Pittsburgh’s defense is built to combat Lamar Jackson, so they won’t be shocked by anything they see from Fields on the ground.

The Jets will want to keep things on the ground, which means plenty of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, who has impressed in training camp and preseason. The Steelers, however, figure to have a strong ground defense, so I don’t think the Jets will have much success running the ball.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers should able to pound the ball better than the Jets. New York has some talented defensive players, particularly in the secondary, but the nose tackle situation has been horrid for several years. The Jets have been very weak to the rush in those seasons.

It would be nice if billionaire offensive coordinator Arthur Smith would utilize Kaleb Johnson because the rookie is the superior runner when compared to Jaylen Warren. It’s impossible for Smith to do the right thing, however, as evidenced by how horribly he bungled Atlanta’s running back situation a couple of years ago. Still, Warren could have some success.

Besides, Rodgers may want Warren on the field because of his pass protection. The Jets have players who can swarm the quarterback, and it remains to be seen how Pittsburgh’s offensive line will function.

RECAP: One of my favorite angles for Week 1 is betting against teams with new head coaches and new quarterbacks. This has about a two-thirds success rate over the years. Teams with new head coaches and new quarterbacks were 1-3 against the spread last year. The one winner was the Patriots, who were able to beat the no-show Bengals.

The Jets have a new head coach and a new quarterback. That particular quarterback was on the Steelers last year. Do you think it’s possible that Tomlin will have a great game plan prepared for a quarterback he saw in practice every day last year? Tomlin knows Fields’ tendencies, so I expect Pittsburgh’s defense to smother him and force him into multiple turnovers.

Speaking of Tomlin, he’s exceptional at winning close games. He tends to not cover when he’s a big favorite, particularly on the road, but anything -3 or less is fine. I love the Steelers in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m hoping for a clean -2.5 line, but the best one we have right now is -2.5 -118 at FanDuel. I loved the Steelers at -3, and I love them even more at -2.5. The most I’d pay for a -2.5 over a -3 is -127 compared to a -2.5 -110 (17 cents), so -2.5 -118 is definitely viable compared to -3 -105.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams are missing a player in the trenches when the Jets have the ball. Alijah Vera-Tucker is out for New York, while Derrick Harmon won’t suit up for the Steelers. This is a wash. However, Pittsburgh could be missing another defensive end if Cameron Heyward holds out for a contract. Heyward’s absence would be a huge loss, and with Harmon’s injury, it would cause me to drop the unit count to three or so. I guess we’ll just have to wait until Sunday to see if Heyward will play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The only surprise injury here is that Nick Herbig is out. That doesn’t hurt all that much unless the Steelers lose an edge rusher in this game. The sharps haven’t touched this game. I still love Pittsburgh in this matchup. The best line is -3 -108 at DraftKings. A quarter unit is going to be for +139 vig, thanks to a 50-percent boost on DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Steelers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 56% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from the summer:

I compiled tons of hate mail in this week’s Jerks of the Week entry, entitled the The Mina Kimes Fanboy Club.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins didn’t exactly have the most encouraging preseason performances. In the final game the starters played, the starting offensive line couldn’t block Jacksonville’s backups. Tua Tagovailoa looked helpless against players who didn’t even make their roster.

The Colts don’t exactly have a strong defense, so perhaps the Dolphins will perform relatively well in this matchup. To be fair to the Miami starters, Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane weren’t on the field in that preseason affair, though one must wonder how much longer Hill has remaining in Miami, given that he’s caused some controversy this offseason and wasn’t voted as a team captain for the first time.

I don’t know how much Hill can do, given the poor Miami tackles and the tendency for the opposition to play a cover-2 shell against the Dolphins. However, Achane could have a big game as a receiver. The Colts have problems over the middle of the field, which is something Achane should be able to exploit.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts haven’t had the issues on the offensive line that the Dolphins currently possess, but that appears to be changing. This is the weakest offensive line Indianapolis has maintained in recent memory, thanks to the departures of Ryan Kelly and Will Fries, plus the injury and mental issues of Braden Smith.

This is not good news for Daniel Jones, who has a habit of wilting under pressure. The Dolphins have some serious holes defensively, but one thing they’ll do extremely well on this side of the ball is generate pressure on the quarterback. Jones will be harassed often.

Miami’s primary defensive weakness is at cornerback, but given Jones’ lack of time in the pocket, plus the mediocrity of the healthy Indianapolis receivers, it doesn’t seem likely that the Colts can take full advantage of this. Conversely, the Dolphins figure to be better against the run, so Jonathan Taylor may not have much at his disposal, especially given that Kelly and Fries are gone.

RECAP: It’s a shame that these two teams are playing against each other this week because I’d love to fade them both. The Dolphins have so many problems on both sides of the ball, and the same can be said of the Colts. I don’t trust either team to block well, and I don’t trust either team to have strong overall defensive performances this year.

The one area in which the Dolphins are better than the Colts is the pass rush. Miami should be able to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks often, and that will be a problem for the Colts and their diminished offensive front. Jones is a horrible quarterback who wilts when there’s heat on him in the pocket, and I expect him to struggle.

I don’t have much conviction with this play, but I’m leaning toward the Dolphins. They seem a bit better than the Colts, and they’re also returning both their head coach and quarterback, while Indianapolis is just bringing back its coach.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is down to pick ’em in some sportsbooks. This may not be sharp action, but rather the sportsbooks re-positioning themselves for teaser purposes.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a big injury development, which is that Miami’s best offensive lineman, James Daniels, was downgraded each day in practice. He was DNP on Friday and is listed as questionable. If he can’t go, Miami is going to have severe issues blocking Indianapolis’ talented defensive front. This wouldn’t get me to bet the Colts, but I’d consider switching my pick to them.

PLAYER PROPS: De’Von Achane’s receiving yardage prop seems great. He went over his posted total in nine of the 13 games in which Tua Tagovailoa played last year, and now Jonnu Smith is gone, so Achane’s receiving numbers should continue to stay high. The best number is over 29.5 receiving yards -115.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Big news for the Dolphins: James Daniels will play. I’ll be on the Dolphins, but I’m still not going to bet this game. The sharps haven’t touched this one either. The best line is +1 -106 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Dolphins -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Lots of money on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 67% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

Contest Announcement time!

Our Survivor Contest has returned. It’s free to enter, and you can win $350!

Our weekly fantasy contest is on pause at the moment with potential upgrades. Stay tuned for that later.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young had a horrid start to his 2024 season, so he’ll be looking to avoid something similar at Jacksonville. Young will have an easier opponent, given that the Jaguars have some big problems on this side of the ball.

However, I’m not fully sold on Young. He performed better in the second half of 2024, but that was very misleading. I’ll discuss that later, but there’s a good chance for some regression. I’m not fully on board with new receiver Tetairoa McMillan either; McMillian was not a top-10 prospect, but went at No. 8 overall because owner Axe Tepper meddled once again in the team’s affairs, inexplicably once again failing to trust the football people he hired.

One area in which the Panthers can succeed in this matchup is the running game. The Panthers have a stout offensive line, so Chuba Hubbard should be able to find some big running lanes against a sketchy Jaguars run defense.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: While there are reasons to believe that Carolina’s offense is a farce, the Jaguars should be legitimately better this year for a myriad of reasons. First of all, Trevor Lawrence will be healthy for the first time since the opening half of the 2023 season. Jacksonville began 8-3 that year, but fell off a cliff once Lawrence began suffering a new injury each week. At least one of those injuries carried over into 2024 because Lawrence was never 100 percent, plus it didn’t help that Doug Pederson had one foot out the door. Liam Coen being a big upgrade over Pederson is another reason to be optimistic.

And then, there’s Travis Hunter, who looks to be an explosive element in this offense. If you think about it, Brian Thomas Jr. didn’t even get fully going last year until Mac Jones took over for Lawrence, so the former No. 1 pick will have two new dynamic threats at his disposal. Carolina has an awful secondary, so Thomas and Hunter figure to have huge performances.

The Panthers were also dreadful against the run last year, and I expect that to continue. Coen seemingly figured out that Tank Bigsby is better than Travis Etienne, so the Jaguars should be able to move the chains well on the ground.

RECAP: The Jaguars were favored by three a few days ago, but the line has since moved to -3.5. While I hate betting 3.5-point favorites because the line of 3.5 has the lowest covering rate in the NFL, the spread moving from -3 to -3.5 is a sign of strength for the Jaguars because it shows that the sportsbooks aren’t afraid of the sharps pounding the Panthers at +3.5.

Despite the -3.5 line, I like the Jaguars. They’re a much better team, while the Panthers are the hipster pick this year because people watched them play close games against the Eagles, Chiefs, and Buccaneers late in 2024, and came away impressed despite all three games being losses. People seem to ignore that all three of those teams didn’t put forth any effort against Carolina. When the Panthers’ opponents tried hard against them – the Cowboys and the Buccaneers on the second occasion – those games were blowouts.

The one thing I don’t like about the Jaguars is that they have a new head coach in his first game, so I don’t think I’ll be betting them. If Liam Coen had any experience, I would have a two- or three-unit wager on Jacksonville. And one final thing: Jacksonville will have the advantage of wearing their white jerseys in the hot Florida sun. Don’t underestimate this dynamic, as Florida teams have a big home-field advantage in September for this reason.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I haven’t checked the weather yet – I hardly do so until Friday night because that can change so much – but we’re hoping for 90 degrees and sunny to boost the Jaguars, who will presumably be wearing their white jerseys. Liam Coen coached in Tampa Bay last year, so I’m sure he knows all about that.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only major injury in this game is Carolina left tackle Ikem Ekwonu being listed as doubtful. I’d think this would be a big deal if the Panthers had a poor offensive line otherwise, but Carolina’s front is stellar. This doesn’t move the needle very much for me, but it’s still a nice bonus for anyone backing the Jaguars. I’ve come to realize that I like the Jaguars more than I did when I wrote up this pick on Tuesday. I’m going to bet two units on them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, Ikem Ekwonu is out. The sharps, who took the Jaguars -3 earlier in the week, have once again jumped on them at -3.5 and -4. This line is -4.5 everywhere, but you can still get -4 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Jaguars -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 51% (118,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Everyone seems to be worried about a potential sophomore slump that Jayden Daniels could suffer. While this happened to C.J. Stroud last year, there’s no reason to believe that Daniels will suffer the same fate. After all, Joe Burrow went to the Super Bowl in his second year. Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger won Super Bowls in their second seasons. Carson Wentz was the MVP front-runner in his second year until he tore his ACL, and so on.

Daniels has also been helped by enhanced supporting cast. Laremy Tunsil was acquired via trade, and his presence will be huge against the Giants, who have three dynamic edge rushers, plus Dexter Lawrence. Despite Tunsil’s presence, it doesn’t seem as though the Redskins will fully be able to protect Daniels, so he’ll have to use his legs and make some magic happen like he did last year.

The Giants also figure to be strong against the run and better versus the pass because Jevon Holland was added to the secondary. The Redskins have a questionable ground attack with Jacory Croskey-Merritt taking over for Brian Robinson Jr., so I like the Giants’ chances of containing the Redskins relatively well.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I loved what the Redskins did this offseason to aid Daniels, but something their front office forgot to do was acquire a talented pass rusher. They added Von Miller, but he’s obviously well past his prime. The Giants have some holes up front, but the offensive line isn’t that bad, so Russell Wilson will have a chance.

Speaking of Wilson, he’s also past his prime, but he figures to be an improvement over what the Giants had at quarterback last year. He can also buy himself time in the pocket and launch some moon balls toward Malik Nabers. The Redskins have two talented cornerbacks, but they’re also starting a second-round rookie at the position and have some issues at safety. Nabers could have a big game.

The Redskins weren’t very strong versus the run last year, so we could see some explosive plays from Tyrone Tracy. The second-year runner wasn’t fully unleashed until the end of the season, so he didn’t get a chance against Washington’s defense.

RECAP: This is an obvious look-ahead spot for the Redskins. They swept the Giants last year, so this game doesn’t mean as much to them as Thursday’s battle against Micah Parsons and the Packers. They know they need extra time to prepare for Parsons, and they can get away with it because the Giants are not a good team.

For those wondering if teams would look ahead on Week 1, I’d like to present the 2024 Bengals, who mailed it in against the Patriots because they had the Chiefs on the horizon. The Redskins could definitely look past the Giants.

And yet, the Giants aren’t that bad. They added some new defensive pieces and have a major upgrade at quarterback over what they had last year once Daniel Jones got hurt. I’m no fan of Wilson, but he’s like Joe Montana compared to Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock. With an underrated roster, the Giants can keep this game close and potentially pull the upset.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: FanDuel has moved this line to +5.5, which is slightly concerning, but they’ve been the only sportsbook to do that. I still love the Giants, as the Redskins will be looking ahead to their impending Thursday night affair.

SATURDAY NOTES: The big news is that Andrew Thomas is listed as doubtful. This obviously sucks, but I still like the Giants. New York’s offensive line isn’t like it was a a couple of years ago because there’s some talent on the front otherwise. Also, the Redskins will be missing one of their top blockers, as Sam Cosmi is on the PUP list. I think the Redskins will be looking ahead to their Thursday night affair regardless.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, Andrew Thomas is out. Despite this, the sharps haven’t taken the Redskins, which is saying a lot. The best line is +6 -105 at Bet365, but for those of you who don’t have access to that sportsbook – I’m one of them – the best line is +6 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

The Redskins, who swept the Giants last year, battle the Packers on Thursday night.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Redskins -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Late money on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 63% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow couldn’t have been happy to see that his visit to Cleveland was the opening game of the season. The Browns’ stadium has been a house of horrors for Burrow, so if he wants to take an optimistic view of things, he can at least get this trip out of the way and then forget about it for the rest of the year.

Myles Garrett has terrorized Burrow in these matchups, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t do so again. The Bengals have a shaky offensive line, which includes two tackles who have underperformed. Garrett and the rest of the Cleveland defensive front will have their way with the Cincinnati blockers, forcing Burrow into more poor throws and mistakes.

Burrow won’t be completely shut out. He has two great receivers at his disposal, so there will be some offensive success. It won’t be very consistent, however.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: While the Bengals will have issues moving the chains throughout the afternoon, the Browns probably won’t have any issues doing so. I can’t believe I wrote that, but it’s true.

The Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL. They possessed a bottom-five unit last year, but lost personnel this offseason and will be even worse. Joe Flacco is an old man, but he should be able to reproduce what Jameis Winston did for the Browns last season, which was have some explosive offensive performances mixed in with some dreadful ones. Flacco shouldn’t have an issue shredding Cincinnati’s poor defense with talented players like Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku at his disposal.

The Browns should be able to run the ball effectively, too. It’s a shame Quinshon Judkins turned out to be an a**hole because this could have been a huge game for him. Instead, Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson will pick up big chunks on the ground.

RECAP: There are some coaches who thrive in Week 1, and there are some coaches who are abysmal in Week 1. Zac Taylor qualifies as the latter. Under Taylor, the Bengals are 1-9 straight up in Weeks 1 and 2. That’s not 1-9 against the spread. That’s 1-9 straight up. Taylor’s only victory in the first two weeks of the season came in 2021 against Minnesota when Dalvin Cook fumbled over midfield in overtime.

I’m no fan of the Bengals in the first two weeks of the season, and I’m no fan of them in general this year. When Super Bowl LIX ended, I polled people on X/Twitter about their favorite bet to win Super Bowl LX, and most said Cincinnati. I found this preposterous because the Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL. They also have issues on the offensive line. Cincinnati’s entire team is just four great fantasy players and Trey Hendrickson. That’s it. They’re like a fancy-looking car with no engine. There is no substance to this team.

In fact, I could make the case that the Browns are better than the Bengals if they get the Flacco from 2023. The Browns certainly have the far superior defense and offensive line. And sure, they don’t have the dynamic weapons that the Bengals possess, but Jeudy and Njoku have proven that they can produce when paired with a competent quarterback. Whether or not Flacco is competent remains to be seen, but if his one preseason performance is any indication, then perhaps he can be competent against this awful defense.

So, we have what could be the superior team getting nearly six points at home against an opponent who often disappoints at this time of year. And if that’s not enough, the large favorite in this matchup often struggles at this venue. Cleveland has been a house of horrors for Burrow, and his offensive line hasn’t been able to protect Garrett at all.

Everything is telling me that the Browns should be the top play this week. In fact, they should be Pick of the Month. We won our September NFL Pick of the Month last year with Arizona covering versus Buffalo, and I suspect we’ll have a similar result with the Browns covering, or perhaps even upsetting, the Bengals.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m holding out hope for a +6, but I don’t think we’re going to get that because Caesars and Bet365 have moved this line to +5. I plan on betting the moneyline in addition to Cleveland plus the points. And by the way, I was glad to hear that long-time handicapper Andy Iskoe, whom I had on the show Wednesday night, agreed with me on this game. You can check out the video here:

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no injuries of note. I’m still holding out hope that we get a +6 at some point, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here we go. The sharps have pounded the Browns on Sunday morning. This line is +4.5 in most places, although you can get +5 -108 at Heritage if you have access to that offshore book. If you don’t, the best line is +4.5 -106 at FanDuel. Of the eight units, 0.25 units will be on a 50-percent boost for +142. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Bengals -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

It’s surprising that there’s not as much action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 68% (154,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails last year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year beginning next week!

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: It’s an understatement to say that the Raiders will have a new look on this side of the ball in 2025. They completely revamped their offense, acquiring Geno Smith to be a colossal upgrade at quarterback and then using draft picks on Ashton Jeanty and Dont’e Thornton to be their star running back and receiver, respectively.

Jeanty and Thornton will complement each other well. Thornton will establish himself as a dynamic deep threat, which will open running lanes for Jeanty. The top-10 draft pick has an easy matchup, at least on paper. The Patriots struggled against the run last year, but have also made some changes to help themselves on this side of the ball. The Raiders still have issues on the offensive line, so I don’t think Jeanty will have the best blocking in this game.

Smith also won’t have the proper pass protection, but he can always lean on Brock Bowers if he doesn’t have time in the pocket. It’s also worth noting that there are injury concerns with New England’s top cornerback, Christian Gonzalez.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I also have concerns about the Patriots’ ability to protect their quarterback. The front office bolstered the team’s blocking by drafting Will Campbell fourth overall, as well as another lineman on Day 2, but we can’t really trust Campbell and another rookie to be able to block Maxx Crosby and the rest of the Raiders’ talented defensive line in their first NFL game.

Drake Maye will either have to use his legs to escape pressure or toss passes to second-round rookie TreVeyon Henderson. The latter option will certainly work well, as Henderson projects to be a star in the NFL. He’s an elite pass protector, so there won’t be any concerns about having him on the field on third down.

Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson should also have success moving the chains on the ground. While pass protection will be an issue for the Patriots, run blocking should go pretty well. The Raiders also have issues at linebacker because of some departures this offseason.

RECAP: The Raiders are one of two teams to have a new head coach and a new quarterback in Week 1. As discussed in the Steelers-Jets pick capsule, these teams cover the spread about 30 percent of the time.

This, however, could be a different sort of situation. Pete Carroll is a long-time head coach, while Smith is a seasoned veteran. Plus, the Patriots also have a new head coach, so I can’t say that the Raiders are at a severe disadvantage. Some may point to the Raiders being behind the eight ball because this is an early start time on the East Coast, but Carroll has thrived in that scenario. Carroll is 16-10 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Despite the new coach-quarterback combo, I’m going to be on the Raiders. The combination of Mike Vrabel and Maye have far less experience than Carroll and Smith, and I’m not fully convinced that the Patriots can block Crosby and company. The spread moved off +3 toward the Raiders, which is a sign that the sportsbooks aren’t worried about sharp action coming in on New England at less than -3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Patriots got some bad news Wednesday, with Christian Gonzalez unable to practice. It sounds like Gonzalez may not be ready to go, which is great for our stud fantasy sleeper, Dont’e Thornton.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are a couple of injury concerns for the Patriots. Christian Gonzalez was ruled out, which wouldn’t have mattered in this matchup last year, but now the Raiders have Dont’e Thornton. Also, New England’s first-round pick, Will Campbell, is questionable after being limited in practice on Thursday and Friday with an ankle. Campbell could play, but if he’s not 100 percent, he could have more issues than already expected against Maxx Crosby.

PLAYER PROPS: TreVeyon Henderson is the real deal. He should have a big game against the Raiders and their sketchy linebackers. I like his over rushing + receiving yards. The best number is over 64.5 rushing + receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. Ten dollars of this will be via a bonus bet we acquired earlier. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No Efton Chism is disappointing for the Patriots, but Will Campbell will be playing at least. I still have no interest in this game, but if you want to fade tons of public money, bet the Patriots. The best line is +2.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Raiders -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Tons of money on the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 79% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

Video of the Week: You’re going to have to go to YouTube directly for this one, but I’m contractually obligated to show you an episode of NFL Primetime to show you what we’ve been missing since 2005. It truly is a shame that ESPN canceled this amazing show, as we got to hear Chris Berman and Tom Jackson break down games including a Warren Sapp game-winning touchdown and a Clinton Portis 50-point fantasy performance to some amazing music.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints played Spencer “The Silver Snake” Rattler and Tyler Shough deep into all three preseason games, and neither stood out in comparison to the other. Both were horrible. They made some good plays at times, but only did so against opposing backups. They were awful otherwise. I don’t know how new head coach Kellen Moore decided on Rattler because he wasn’t any better than Shough. Perhaps he flipped a coin.

This would have been an easy matchup for the Silver Snake last year, but the Cardinals made some key additions to bolster their defense, acquiring Josh Sweat and Calais Campbell in free agency. The two will create some havoc for the Saints’ offensive line, meaning Rattler will be in a position to make plenty of mistakes. Arizona will create some turnovers and perhaps even score a defensive touchdown.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Saints don’t only have problems on offense. Their defense has some serious problems as well. Their pass rush has diminished, as Cameron Jordan is well past his prime.

Kyler Murray will have all day to throw, so perhaps he’ll be able to establish a better connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. The two didn’t gel very well last year outside of a couple of games, but Harrison will have every opportunity to thrive against a Marshon Lattimore-less secondary.

The Saints figure to be better against the run than the pass, but James Conner could still factor as a receiver over the middle of the field. Trey McBride will obviously dominate this area as well.

RECAP: The Saints don’t quite have a new head coach-new quarterback dynamic. They would if they started Shough instead of Rattler, but it’s close enough.

Rattler stinks. He’s the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. The worst starting quarterback plus a poor roster usually equals disastrous results. We saw that last year when Rattler made starts for the Saints. He covered a couple of games, but was 2-5 against the spread. It would make sense that Rattler would be the sort of quarterback who covers about 30 percent of his games.

This is an easy play on Arizona, and not just because we get to fade an awful team with an awful quarterback. The Cardinals aren’t a great team by any means, but they’re a team that often sits on poor opponents and can’t beat teams better than them. They went 7-1 against the spread against lesser competition last year, losing only to the Panthers late in the year in what looked like an obvious look-ahead spot with two divisional games on the horizon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The case can be made that the Saints will be playing for respect after being trashed by everyone. However, Spencer Rattler is their quarterback, so it may not matter. It’s hard not to make Rattler an auto fade.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no surprise injuries of note. I still love the Cardinals in this spot.

PLAYER PROPS: Young quarterbacks lock in on their No. 1 receivers. I like Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop with it being under 50 at BetMGM. The Saints figure to be playing from behind, so that helps as well. The best number is over 48.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The biggest news of the day so far is that Kyler Murray was added to the injury report with an illness. He’ll play, but I heard a report saying that he looked very unwell entering the stadium. I’m going to slice my projected four units in half, down to two. The sharps jumped on the Saints this morning, likely because of this news. The best number on Arizona is -5.5 -105 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Cardinals -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Late money on the Saints.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 66% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: There’s plenty to be excited about in Atlanta. Michael Penix Jr. will be entering his first full season as a starter, which will present a colossal upgrade over what the Falcons had at quarterback last year. Sure, we’ve only seen glimpses of Penix, but he can’t possibly be worse than Cousins, who was an interception machine in 2024. Cousins was not fully healthy because of he was recovering from a torn Achilles, so it’s puzzling as to why the Falcons didn’t go with Penix earlier.

This won’t be an issue in 2025 because Penix has already been named the starter. He has a strong matchup in this game, given that Tampa Bay’s secondary has struggled for years and will continue to do so. Drake London figures to have a big performance, while Kyle Pitts could have a surprising outing. Pitts dominated the Buccaneers last year, and Tampa Bay hasn’t made the appropriate moves to fix its issues.

The Buccaneers are much better against the run than the pass, so Bijan Robinson won’t have as much rushing room as his owners would like. Kaleb McGary’s absence won’t help matters.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Falcons aren’t the only team missing their blind-side protector. Tristan Wirfs will be sidelined as well, so Atlanta’s new pass rushers will have a better chance of generating pressure on Baker Mayfield than they would otherwise.

Mayfield won’t have his left tackle, his former No. 2 receiver, his tight end, or his offensive coordinator from a year ago in this game. Before you feel too bad for him, consider that Mayfield will have a shiny new toy at his disposal in Emeka Egbuka, who is a great bet to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Egbuka is a supreme route runner and figures to dominate instantly across from Mike Evans.

Mayfield will also be able to lean on the rushing attack. Bucky Irving didn’t have the full-time job in the two meetings against the Falcons last year, so this is a new element Atlanta will have to deal with as it attempts to maintain its dominance over its divisional rival.

RECAP: I don’t understand this spread. I consider the Buccaneers and Falcons to be rather even. If you think the Buccaneers are much better than the Falcons, I’d love to know why. Both teams have explosive offenses and question marks on defense. They both happen to be missing their top tackles. I’d actually argue that Atlanta might be a bit better because of a superior defense. If you think I’m crazy, then how did the Falcons sweep the Buccaneers last year?

Given that the Buccaneers and Falcons are even – I have them side by side in my NFL Power Rankings – then the Falcons should be favored by a point or two with home-field advantage. The fact that they’re home underdogs is absurd. It’s just an incorrect point spread.

I wish we were getting +3. In that case, I’d be all over the Falcons, but I’m still good with taking them at +2.5. If the correct line is -1.5, then we are getting an 8.1-percent advantage in our bet. In other words, if taking a side was a coin flip (50% chance), then we’re 58.1 percent (50 + 8.1) to win with the Falcons, assuming that my projection of -1.5 is the right one.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I got into an argument with someone who claimed that Kirk Cousins was just as good as Michael Penix Jr. last year. Cousins threw a million interceptions after he aggravated his surgically repaired Achilles, so I don’t know how anyone can possibly make that statement. There’s no good reason the Falcons should be +2.5. And that may not be the case much longer, with the Falcons moving to +1.5 in some sportsbooks.

SATURDAY NOTES: We know that both teams were going to be missing their blind-side protectors, with Tristan Wirfs and Kaleb McGary sidelined. What we didn’t know heading into the week was that Vita Vea would be in danger of missing this game. He was DNP on Wednesday and Thursday, but was full on Friday. He’s still listed as questionable, so if he ends up missing this game, the Falcons will be a stronger side.

PLAYER PROPS: You guys might think I’m nuts for betting Kyle Pitts, but he destroyed the Buccaneers in two matchups last year. I don’t think Tampa Bay has done anything to help solve its issues against tight ends, so Pitts should have another great game, especially with Darnell Mooney dealing with an injury. The best number is over 35.5 receiving yards -125 at BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Darnell Mooney is out, but that’s not too much of a surprise. The sharps are on Atlanta, taking them to -1 in some sportsbooks. The best line is PK -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Big lean on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 68% (139,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.