2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Dolphins at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from the summer:

I compiled tons of hate mail in this week’s Jerks of the Week entry, entitled the The Mina Kimes Fanboy Club.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins didn’t exactly have the most encouraging preseason performances. In the final game the starters played, the starting offensive line couldn’t block Jacksonville’s backups. Tua Tagovailoa looked helpless against players who didn’t even make their roster.

The Colts don’t exactly have a strong defense, so perhaps the Dolphins will perform relatively well in this matchup. To be fair to the Miami starters, Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane weren’t on the field in that preseason affair, though one must wonder how much longer Hill has remaining in Miami, given that he’s caused some controversy this offseason and wasn’t voted as a team captain for the first time.

I don’t know how much Hill can do, given the poor Miami tackles and the tendency for the opposition to play a cover-2 shell against the Dolphins. However, Achane could have a big game as a receiver. The Colts have problems over the middle of the field, which is something Achane should be able to exploit.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts haven’t had the issues on the offensive line that the Dolphins currently possess, but that appears to be changing. This is the weakest offensive line Indianapolis has maintained in recent memory, thanks to the departures of Ryan Kelly and Will Fries, plus the injury and mental issues of Braden Smith.

This is not good news for Daniel Jones, who has a habit of wilting under pressure. The Dolphins have some serious holes defensively, but one thing they’ll do extremely well on this side of the ball is generate pressure on the quarterback. Jones will be harassed often.

Miami’s primary defensive weakness is at cornerback, but given Jones’ lack of time in the pocket, plus the mediocrity of the healthy Indianapolis receivers, it doesn’t seem likely that the Colts can take full advantage of this. Conversely, the Dolphins figure to be better against the run, so Jonathan Taylor may not have much at his disposal, especially given that Kelly and Fries are gone.

RECAP: It’s a shame that these two teams are playing against each other this week because I’d love to fade them both. The Dolphins have so many problems on both sides of the ball, and the same can be said of the Colts. I don’t trust either team to block well, and I don’t trust either team to have strong overall defensive performances this year.

The one area in which the Dolphins are better than the Colts is the pass rush. Miami should be able to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks often, and that will be a problem for the Colts and their diminished offensive front. Jones is a horrible quarterback who wilts when there’s heat on him in the pocket, and I expect him to struggle.

I don’t have much conviction with this play, but I’m leaning toward the Dolphins. They seem a bit better than the Colts, and they’re also returning both their head coach and quarterback, while Indianapolis is just bringing back its coach.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is down to pick ’em in some sportsbooks. This may not be sharp action, but rather the sportsbooks re-positioning themselves for teaser purposes.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a big injury development, which is that Miami’s best offensive lineman, James Daniels, was downgraded each day in practice. He was DNP on Friday and is listed as questionable. If he can’t go, Miami is going to have severe issues blocking Indianapolis’ talented defensive front. This wouldn’t get me to bet the Colts, but I’d consider switching my pick to them.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Dolphins -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Lots of money on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 74% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Colts -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.