2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Ravens at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens destroyed the Bills in the first meeting between these teams last year. A big part of that was Matt Milano’s absence. The talented linebacker was missing, and Buffalo, as a consequence, couldn’t stop Derrick Henry. Milano was on the field during the playoff rematch, and the Bills obviously had a better result.

Then again, Mark Andrews blew it with three mistakes in the worst game of his career. Had Andrews not fumbled twice, or if he hadn’t dropped the two-point conversion at the end, Baltimore may have prevailed. The Ravens were still able to move the ball effectively, even with Milano on the field. They obviously weren’t nearly as dominant as they were in the first matchup, but Lamar Jackson is way too good to contain. He’ll have all of his weapons back, and that includes Andrews, who will be looking to redeem himself in this game.

One nice addition the Bills made to their defense is Joey Bosa. While Bosa isn’t the same dominant force he once was, he can still play at a high level, and he’ll be able to put some pressure on Jackson. However, the Ravens have kept their offensive line intact, which is obviously a good thing. Not only is continuity key, but the Ravens have a strong blocking unit that will be able to keep Jackson mostly secure.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills were able to run on the Ravens in the playoff battle. James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson combined for nearly 130 rushing yards. Baltimore was stout versus the run in the first part of the season, so how did this happen? The issue for the Ravens was that they moved star defender Kyle Hamilton from linebacker to safety because of how poor the team was against the pass.

It’s unclear how the Ravens will utilize Hamilton this year, but they added three talented defensive backs this offseason in Jaire Alexander, Chidobe Awuzie, and Malaki Starks. These players will allow Hamilton to play closer to the line of scrimmage, so I don’t expect Buffalo to have the same rushing output in this game.

Meanwhile, Baltimore’s secondary will have a gift, which is Khalil Shakir’s health. Shakir has a high-ankle sprain and is unlikely to play in this game. Shakir isn’t a traditional No. 1 wide receiver, but he happens to be Buffalo’s top receiving threat. Without him on the field, the Bills’ passing attack will be much easier to defend.

RECAP: The Ravens nearly swept the Bills last year. They clobbered them in the initial matchup and then self-destructed in the playoff battle. Had Andrews not fumbled a single time or dropped the two-point conversion, Baltimore may have prevailed.

I think it’s important to note how the two games went last year because the Ravens made big improvements to their roster this offseason. The Bills added some pieces as well, but it doesn’t look like they’re going to have Shakir for this game. That’s a huge loss against a secondary that was greatly upgraded during the spring.

Given the divergence between the teams, as well as Baltimore’s strong desire for revenge, I’m going to side with the visitor in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens are now favored! It appears as though sharp money is moving this line, perhaps because of some pessimism regarding Khalil Shakir’s ability to play this game because of his high-ankle sprain.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s interesting that the Ravens are now favorites after opening as 1.5-point underdogs. This has been the work of the sharps, who have been backing Baltimore.

The Motivation. Edge: Ravens.

Playoff revenge for the Ravens.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Ravens -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight action on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 60% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

John Harbaugh is 12-5 ATS in Week 1 games.

Opening Line: Bills -1.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 59 degrees. Light wind.