2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Lions at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: We have to begin our pick analysis on this side of the ball because of a huge trade that occurred this offseason. I’m talking, of course, about the Packers acquiring Darian Kinnard from the Eagles. OK, OK, it’s Micah Parsons, arguably the best defensive player in the NFL. The Packers had a mediocre pass rush last year, but that will obviously be strengthened by Parsons’ presence.

Another big addition the Packers made this offseason was acquiring Nate Hobbs. He’s an excellent slot cornerback, so he’ll be able to slow down Amon-Ra St. Brown a bit. This is obviously not ideal for Jared Goff, who needs everything perfect around him to succeed against top competition. Goff won’t have that here, as he’ll be dealing with Parsons on the edge and interior pass rushers skating by his underwhelming interior linemen who will be tasked to replace Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler.

Ragnow and Zeitler being gone will hurt the rushing attack. Ben Johnson’s creativity will be missing as well. Jahmyr Gibbs could hit some explosive plays, but the consistency with the rush won’t be there this year.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Lions are missing personnel on their defensive front as well, as Alim McNeill isn’t healthy enough to take the field after suffering an injury late in the year. The Lions will have Aidan Hutchinson back on the field, but the defensive line is not at 100 percent.

The Packers have a strong offensive line that will be able to protect “No Cookie” Jordan Love fairly well. Love won’t have Jayden Reed at his disposal, but he’ll able to make use of his new deep threat, Matthew Golden. With former defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn gone, there could be some breakdowns in the secondary.

Green Bay should be able to establish the run, too. Josh Jacobs was highly effective last year, and with McNeill sidelined, the Lions could allow some big runs.

RECAP: I’m not surprised that as of Tuesday evening, the Lions are getting more action than any other team in the NFL this week. Sure, the Packers have Parsons, but Detroit went 15-2 last year, sweeping Green Bay in the process. How can you not bet them as underdogs!?

The Lions have a massive Week 1 preparation disadvantage. They obviously don’t have a new head coach-new quarterback dynamic to overcome, but they have two new coordinators who will need to construct a game plan against Matt LaFleur, one of the best coaches in the NFL. The last time we saw a team with two new coordinators in Week 1, the Eagles nearly lost to the horrendous 2023 Patriots. The Packers are a far tougher opponent than that New England team.

In addition to the two new coordinators, the Lions will also have to overcome a reshuffled interior offensive line. The reason why I was so high on the Lions several years ago to begin with was because they had an elite offensive line. That’s not the case anymore. Their tackles are still exceptional, but their guards and center are huge question marks.

I like the Packers to cover this spread and win by a field goal or more. I have Green Bay rated above Detroit in my NFL Power Rankings, so I would have made this line Green Bay -3.5. Getting the three is key.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a chance that Micah Parsons may not play. If he’s out, I assume the line will drop to -1.5 or maybe even -1. However, it sounds like Parsons will give it a go after receiving an injection, but you never know with these things.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been asked if I considered being less bearish on the Lions because they’re getting all of their defensive players back from injury, but that’s not true. They’re still missing a star in Alim McNeill and two key players in Levi Onwuzurike and Malcolm Rodriguez. The Packers also have their injury issues with Micah Parsons, Jayden Reed, and Nate Hobbs all questionable with limitedx3 or DNP-limitedx2 practice setups this week. The inactives list will dictate how many units I’ll have on the Packers.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Packers -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Tons of money on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 82% (66,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Lions have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Packers are 9-6 ATS as home underdogs since 2007.

Opening Line: Packers -1.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 63 degrees. Light wind.