2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Panthers at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

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CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young had a horrid start to his 2024 season, so he’ll be looking to avoid something similar at Jacksonville. Young will have an easier opponent, given that the Jaguars have some big problems on this side of the ball.

However, I’m not fully sold on Young. He performed better in the second half of 2024, but that was very misleading. I’ll discuss that later, but there’s a good chance for some regression. I’m not fully on board with new receiver Tetairoa McMillan either; McMillian was not a top-10 prospect, but went at No. 8 overall because owner Axe Tepper meddled once again in the team’s affairs, inexplicably once again failing to trust the football people he hired.

One area in which the Panthers can succeed in this matchup is the running game. The Panthers have a stout offensive line, so Chuba Hubbard should be able to find some big running lanes against a sketchy Jaguars run defense.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: While there are reasons to believe that Carolina’s offense is a farce, the Jaguars should be legitimately better this year for a myriad of reasons. First of all, Trevor Lawrence will be healthy for the first time since the opening half of the 2023 season. Jacksonville began 8-3 that year, but fell off a cliff once Lawrence began suffering a new injury each week. At least one of those injuries carried over into 2024 because Lawrence was never 100 percent, plus it didn’t help that Doug Pederson had one foot out the door. Liam Coen being a big upgrade over Pederson is another reason to be optimistic.

And then, there’s Travis Hunter, who looks to be an explosive element in this offense. If you think about it, Brian Thomas Jr. didn’t even get fully going last year until Mac Jones took over for Lawrence, so the former No. 1 pick will have two new dynamic threats at his disposal. Carolina has an awful secondary, so Thomas and Hunter figure to have huge performances.

The Panthers were also dreadful against the run last year, and I expect that to continue. Coen seemingly figured out that Tank Bigsby is better than Travis Etienne, so the Jaguars should be able to move the chains well on the ground.

RECAP: The Jaguars were favored by three a few days ago, but the line has since moved to -3.5. While I hate betting 3.5-point favorites because the line of 3.5 has the lowest covering rate in the NFL, the spread moving from -3 to -3.5 is a sign of strength for the Jaguars because it shows that the sportsbooks aren’t afraid of the sharps pounding the Panthers at +3.5.

Despite the -3.5 line, I like the Jaguars. They’re a much better team, while the Panthers are the hipster pick this year because people watched them play close games against the Eagles, Chiefs, and Buccaneers late in 2024, and came away impressed despite all three games being losses. People seem to ignore that all three of those teams didn’t put forth any effort against Carolina. When the Panthers’ opponents tried hard against them – the Cowboys and the Buccaneers on the second occasion – those games were blowouts.

The one thing I don’t like about the Jaguars is that they have a new head coach in his first game, so I don’t think I’ll be betting them. If Liam Coen had any experience, I would have a two- or three-unit wager on Jacksonville. And one final thing: Jacksonville will have the advantage of wearing their white jerseys in the hot Florida sun. Don’t underestimate this dynamic, as Florida teams have a big home-field advantage in September for this reason.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I haven’t checked the weather yet – I hardly do so until Friday night because that can change so much – but we’re hoping for 90 degrees and sunny to boost the Jaguars, who will presumably be wearing their white jerseys. Liam Coen coached in Tampa Bay last year, so I’m sure he knows all about that.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only major injury in this game is Carolina left tackle Ikem Ekwonu being listed as doubtful. I’d think this would be a big deal if the Panthers had a poor offensive line otherwise, but Carolina’s front is stellar. This doesn’t move the needle very much for me, but it’s still a nice bonus for anyone backing the Jaguars. I’ve come to realize that I like the Jaguars more than I did when I wrote up this pick on Tuesday. I’m going to bet two units on them.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Jaguars -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 59% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Jaguars are 65-112 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 21-54 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 16-31 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -3.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 88 degrees. Light wind.