2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Steelers at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. Publicly backed sides were 48-43 ATS through 18 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions +2.5

Dolphins +1.5

Vikings -1.5

Chiefs -3

Ravens +1

The Lions are a weird one, but I think people are looking at that as a great opportunity to bet an underdog that went 15-2 last year.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s odd that the Steelers and Jets traded quarterbacks this offseason without trading quarterbacks, and now they’ll be battling each other in Week 1. The consensus is that the Steelers got the upper hand in the swap, though Jets fans who watched Aaron Rodgers disappoint would certainly argue against that.

Of course, they haven’t seen Justin Fields play yet. Fields has obvious ability as a runner, but has struggled in training camp when throwing the ball. This presents a big problem against the Steelers because Mike Tomlin is one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL. Tomlin also happened to see Fields every day in practice last year, so he’ll know his weaknesses more than anyone. Armed with a defense packed with talent, Tomlin will be able to create the perfect game plan to defeat Fields. Keep in mind that Pittsburgh’s defense is built to combat Lamar Jackson, so they won’t be shocked by anything they see from Fields on the ground.

The Jets will want to keep things on the ground, which means plenty of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, who has impressed in training camp and preseason. The Steelers, however, figure to have a strong ground defense, so I don’t think the Jets will have much success running the ball.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers should able to pound the ball better than the Jets. New York has some talented defensive players, particularly in the secondary, but the nose tackle situation has been horrid for several years. The Jets have been very weak to the rush in those seasons.

It would be nice if billionaire offensive coordinator Arthur Smith would utilize Kaleb Johnson because the rookie is the superior runner when compared to Jaylen Warren. It’s impossible for Smith to do the right thing, however, as evidenced by how horribly he bungled Atlanta’s running back situation a couple of years ago. Still, Warren could have some success.

Besides, Rodgers may want Warren on the field because of his pass protection. The Jets have players who can swarm the quarterback, and it remains to be seen how Pittsburgh’s offensive line will function.

RECAP: One of my favorite angles for Week 1 is betting against teams with new head coaches and new quarterbacks. This has about a two-thirds success rate over the years. Teams with new head coaches and new quarterbacks were 1-3 against the spread last year. The one winner was the Patriots, who were able to beat the no-show Bengals.

The Jets have a new head coach and a new quarterback. That particular quarterback was on the Steelers last year. Do you think it’s possible that Tomlin will have a great game plan prepared for a quarterback he saw in practice every day last year? Tomlin knows Fields’ tendencies, so I expect Pittsburgh’s defense to smother him and force him into multiple turnovers.

Speaking of Tomlin, he’s exceptional at winning close games. He tends to not cover when he’s a big favorite, particularly on the road, but anything -3 or less is fine. I love the Steelers in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m hoping for a clean -2.5 line, but the best one we have right now is -2.5 -118 at FanDuel. I loved the Steelers at -3, and I love them even more at -2.5. The most I’d pay for a -2.5 over a -3 is -127 compared to a -2.5 -110 (17 cents), so -2.5 -118 is definitely viable compared to -3 -105.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams are missing a player in the trenches when the Jets have the ball. Alijah Vera-Tucker is out for New York, while Derrick Harmon won’t suit up for the Steelers. This is a wash. However, Pittsburgh could be missing another defensive end if Cameron Heyward holds out for a contract. Heyward’s absence would be a huge loss, and with Harmon’s injury, it would cause me to drop the unit count to three or so. I guess we’ll just have to wait until Sunday to see if Heyward will play.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Steelers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Slight lean on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 60% (57,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Aaron Rodgers is 134-98 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Steelers -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 65 degrees. Light wind.