2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Chiefs at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs had issues scoring at times last year despite having the best quarterback in the NFL. Pass protection was a big problem, particularly at left tackle. Kansas City took the appropriate measures to ensure that their blocking will be improved this year by spending a first-round pick on Josh Simmons. While Simmons is just a rookie, he’s had a promising enough training camp to make Kansas City believe that it’ll have much better blocking than it did at left tackle a year ago.

The Chiefs will also have more weapons for Patrick Mahomes this year. Rashee Rice is suspended, but Marquise Brown is healthy. The Chiefs also like Brashard Smith, who will be a pass-catcher out of the backfield. The Chargers have a shaky secondary, so I don’t think these players, as well as Xavier Worthy, will have issues getting open.

Kansas City should be able to run the ball rather well, too. The Chargers project to have a poor run defense, while Isiah Pacheco figures to be fully recovered from the injury he suffered a year ago. Pacheco returned early from injury last season, but clearly was never 100 percent. That will be different to begin 2025.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Chiefs had issues protecting on the edge last year, the Chargers thrived in that department. They had elite play at tackle, with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt performing at a high level. Well, the turntables will be turning because Slater is out for the year. Alt will move to left tackle, but right tackle will be a liability with Trey Pipkins slated to start there.

The Chiefs can get to the quarterback rather well, and I imagine coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will figure out how to rattle Justin Herbert. The Charger quarterback also has more weapons this year with Keenan Allen and two rookies joining the receiver corps, but with diminished time in the pocket, there won’t be as many big-play opportunities as there would be if Slater were still on the field.

The Chargers, naturally, will try to run the ball as much as possible because that’s what Jim Harbaugh loves to do. If Harbaugh is able to establish the run, it’ll be the first time he’s ever done so versus Kansas City as the Chargers’ head coach. No Charger back reached 40 rushing yards in either matchup last year.

RECAP: The consensus this year is that the Chiefs will disappoint, perhaps losing early in the playoffs or not even winning the division. People point to all of their close games last year as evidence of this team being overrated.

I can certainly understand the argument, but I completely disagree with it. Their close calls were last year, and this is a new season. The Chiefs, who will have better left tackle play this year, were going through the motions in most of their games in 2024. This was understandable, given that they were reigning two-time Super Bowl champions. They were humiliated in the Super Bowl this past season, however, so I think that will serve as motivation this year. And perhaps this is anecdotal, but the Chiefs played with enthusiasm in their third preseason game where the starters were on the field into the second quarter. They looked energized and happy to be on the football field. I did not see that from them at all last year. It could be possible that losing ignited their passion so they can redeem themselves.

Oh, and last I checked, the Chiefs still have the best quarterback in the NFL and the best head coach in the NFL. It seems ridiculous to me that people are writing off the Chiefs just because they couldn’t beat teams by more than three points a year ago when they didn’t seem to be giving full effort most weeks.

I believe the Chiefs will give full effort in this game. Not only are they playing their first game since their Super Bowl beatdown; this is a divisional rivalry on a national stage in a different country. They’ll be fired up to prove that they’re still the best team in the NFL, and they’ll have Andy Reid aiding them with a brilliant game plan. Reid is terrific when he has extra time to prepare. He’s 8-4 against the spread in Week 1 as Chiefs head coach (4-2 ATS with Mahomes), and this will be only the fourth time that he’s priced -3 or less.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think we may see some -3.5s soon, so I want to lock in this pick. We’re not even getting a great -3 in most places because many books have -3 -115 listed. Some books, like Bally’s and BetRivers, have the Chiefs at -3.5, so that’s why I think we might be headed in that direction. As with the Eagles-Cowboys game, there are no significant injuries. You can still get -3 -110 at Caesars and Bookmaker. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS: I didn’t include this in the video I posted last night…

But I like Omarion Hampton over receiving yards. The Chargers will be missing multiple linemen, and they’ll be playing from behind, so Justin Herbert will dump the ball off to his new running back often. The best number is over 12.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel. Ten dollars of this will be no-sweat via promo.

FanDuel also has a 50-percent boost on this game. I’m going to take Chiefs moneyline -168 down to -112. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

As for touchdown scorers, we’re going with Xavier Worthy +130 for 0.3 units, and Noah Gray +430 and Tyquan Thornton +900 for 0.1 units each. The Worthy and Gray bets will be made from previously earned bonus bets.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: DraftKings is offering a 50-percent boost on same-game parlays, up to $30. We’re going to bet Chiefs moneyline, Omarion Hampton over 13.5 receiving yards, and Isiah Pacheco over 48.5 rushing yards +563. This $30 parlay pays $168.90.

BetMGM has a 20-percent boost on a same-game parlay, up to $10. This parlay will be similar: Chiefs moneyline, Xaiver Worthy over 60.5 receiving yards, Isiah Pacheco over 48.5 receiving yards, Tyler Conklin under 18.5 receiving yards +750.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Chargers, but not enough to drive this line to +2.5. Some sportsbooks moved this line to -3.5 (BetRivers, Bally’s, Fanatics), but some of them still have -3 -110 listed (BetMGM, Caesars). In fact, you can get -3 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

LIVE BET: I can’t believe the Chiefs are now +3.5 after one touchdown. I’m betting them for half a unit at +3.5 -114 at FanDuel.

LIVE BET: Just bet Patrick Mahomes 60+ rushing yards +136 for one unit and Patrick Mahomes 70+ rushing yards +450 for 0.3 units.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chiefs will be out to redeem themselves from the ugly Super Bowl loss.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Chiefs -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Public money on the Chiefs, sharp money on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 53% (310,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.