2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Cardinals at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

Video of the Week: You’re going to have to go to YouTube directly for this one, but I’m contractually obligated to show you an episode of NFL Primetime to show you what we’ve been missing since 2005. It truly is a shame that ESPN canceled this amazing show, as we got to hear Chris Berman and Tom Jackson break down games including a Warren Sapp game-winning touchdown and a Clinton Portis 50-point fantasy performance to some amazing music.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints played Spencer “The Silver Snake” Rattler and Tyler Shough deep into all three preseason games, and neither stood out in comparison to the other. Both were horrible. They made some good plays at times, but only did so against opposing backups. They were awful otherwise. I don’t know how new head coach Kellen Moore decided on Rattler because he wasn’t any better than Shough. Perhaps he flipped a coin.

This would have been an easy matchup for the Silver Snake last year, but the Cardinals made some key additions to bolster their defense, acquiring Josh Sweat and Calais Campbell in free agency. The two will create some havoc for the Saints’ offensive line, meaning Rattler will be in a position to make plenty of mistakes. Arizona will create some turnovers and perhaps even score a defensive touchdown.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Saints don’t only have problems on offense. Their defense has some serious problems as well. Their pass rush has diminished, as Cameron Jordan is well past his prime.

Kyler Murray will have all day to throw, so perhaps he’ll be able to establish a better connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. The two didn’t gel very well last year outside of a couple of games, but Harrison will have every opportunity to thrive against a Marshon Lattimore-less secondary.

The Saints figure to be better against the run than the pass, but James Conner could still factor as a receiver over the middle of the field. Trey McBride will obviously dominate this area as well.

RECAP: The Saints don’t quite have a new head coach-new quarterback dynamic. They would if they started Shough instead of Rattler, but it’s close enough.

Rattler stinks. He’s the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. The worst starting quarterback plus a poor roster usually equals disastrous results. We saw that last year when Rattler made starts for the Saints. He covered a couple of games, but was 2-5 against the spread. It would make sense that Rattler would be the sort of quarterback who covers about 30 percent of his games.

This is an easy play on Arizona, and not just because we get to fade an awful team with an awful quarterback. The Cardinals aren’t a great team by any means, but they’re a team that often sits on poor opponents and can’t beat teams better than them. They went 7-1 against the spread against lesser competition last year, losing only to the Panthers late in the year in what looked like an obvious look-ahead spot with two divisional games on the horizon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The case can be made that the Saints will be playing for respect after being trashed by everyone. However, Spencer Rattler is their quarterback, so it may not matter. It’s hard not to make Rattler an auto fade.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no surprise injuries of note. I still love the Cardinals in this spot.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Cardinals -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 52% (48,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.