2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Raiders at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: It’s an understatement to say that the Raiders will have a new look on this side of the ball in 2025. They completely revamped their offense, acquiring Geno Smith to be a colossal upgrade at quarterback and then using draft picks on Ashton Jeanty and Dont’e Thornton to be their star running back and receiver, respectively.

Jeanty and Thornton will complement each other well. Thornton will establish himself as a dynamic deep threat, which will open running lanes for Jeanty. The top-10 draft pick has an easy matchup, at least on paper. The Patriots struggled against the run last year, but have also made some changes to help themselves on this side of the ball. The Raiders still have issues on the offensive line, so I don’t think Jeanty will have the best blocking in this game.

Smith also won’t have the proper pass protection, but he can always lean on Brock Bowers if he doesn’t have time in the pocket. It’s also worth noting that there are injury concerns with New England’s top cornerback, Christian Gonzalez.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I also have concerns about the Patriots’ ability to protect their quarterback. The front office bolstered the team’s blocking by drafting Will Campbell fourth overall, as well as another lineman on Day 2, but we can’t really trust Campbell and another rookie to be able to block Maxx Crosby and the rest of the Raiders’ talented defensive line in their first NFL game.

Drake Maye will either have to use his legs to escape pressure or toss passes to second-round rookie TreVeyon Henderson. The latter option will certainly work well, as Henderson projects to be a star in the NFL. He’s an elite pass protector, so there won’t be any concerns about having him on the field on third down.

Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson should also have success moving the chains on the ground. While pass protection will be an issue for the Patriots, run blocking should go pretty well. The Raiders also have issues at linebacker because of some departures this offseason.

RECAP: The Raiders are one of two teams to have a new head coach and a new quarterback in Week 1. As discussed in the Steelers-Jets pick capsule, these teams cover the spread about 30 percent of the time.

This, however, could be a different sort of situation. Pete Carroll is a long-time head coach, while Smith is a seasoned veteran. Plus, the Patriots also have a new head coach, so I can’t say that the Raiders are at a severe disadvantage. Some may point to the Raiders being behind the eight ball because this is an early start time on the East Coast, but Carroll has thrived in that scenario. Carroll is 16-10 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Despite the new coach-quarterback combo, I’m going to be on the Raiders. The combination of Mike Vrabel and Maye have far less experience than Carroll and Smith, and I’m not fully convinced that the Patriots can block Crosby and company. The spread moved off +3 toward the Raiders, which is a sign that the sportsbooks aren’t worried about sharp action coming in on New England at less than -3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Patriots got some bad news Wednesday, with Christian Gonzalez unable to practice. It sounds like Gonzalez may not be ready to go, which is great for our stud fantasy sleeper, Dont’e Thornton.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are a couple of injury concerns for the Patriots. Christian Gonzalez was ruled out, which wouldn’t have mattered in this matchup last year, but now the Raiders have Dont’e Thornton. Also, New England’s first-round pick, Will Campbell, is questionable after being limited in practice on Thursday and Friday with an ankle. Campbell could play, but if he’s not 100 percent, he could have more issues than already expected against Maxx Crosby.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Raiders -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Big lean on the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 69% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Pete Carroll is 16-10 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Opening Line: Patriots -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 65 degrees. Light wind.