2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Bengals at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow couldn’t have been happy to see that his visit to Cleveland was the opening game of the season. The Browns’ stadium has been a house of horrors for Burrow, so if he wants to take an optimistic view of things, he can at least get this trip out of the way and then forget about it for the rest of the year.

Myles Garrett has terrorized Burrow in these matchups, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t do so again. The Bengals have a shaky offensive line, which includes two tackles who have underperformed. Garrett and the rest of the Cleveland defensive front will have their way with the Cincinnati blockers, forcing Burrow into more poor throws and mistakes.

Burrow won’t be completely shut out. He has two great receivers at his disposal, so there will be some offensive success. It won’t be very consistent, however.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: While the Bengals will have issues moving the chains throughout the afternoon, the Browns probably won’t have any issues doing so. I can’t believe I wrote that, but it’s true.

The Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL. They possessed a bottom-five unit last year, but lost personnel this offseason and will be even worse. Joe Flacco is an old man, but he should be able to reproduce what Jameis Winston did for the Browns last season, which was have some explosive offensive performances mixed in with some dreadful ones. Flacco shouldn’t have an issue shredding Cincinnati’s poor defense with talented players like Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku at his disposal.

The Browns should be able to run the ball effectively, too. It’s a shame Quinshon Judkins turned out to be an a**hole because this could have been a huge game for him. Instead, Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson will pick up big chunks on the ground.

RECAP: There are some coaches who thrive in Week 1, and there are some coaches who are abysmal in Week 1. Zac Taylor qualifies as the latter. Under Taylor, the Bengals are 1-9 straight up in Weeks 1 and 2. That’s not 1-9 against the spread. That’s 1-9 straight up. Taylor’s only victory in the first two weeks of the season came in 2021 against Minnesota when Dalvin Cook fumbled over midfield in overtime.

I’m no fan of the Bengals in the first two weeks of the season, and I’m no fan of them in general this year. When Super Bowl LIX ended, I polled people on X/Twitter about their favorite bet to win Super Bowl LX, and most said Cincinnati. I found this preposterous because the Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL. They also have issues on the offensive line. Cincinnati’s entire team is just four great fantasy players and Trey Hendrickson. That’s it. They’re like a fancy-looking car with no engine. There is no substance to this team.

In fact, I could make the case that the Browns are better than the Bengals if they get the Flacco from 2023. The Browns certainly have the far superior defense and offensive line. And sure, they don’t have the dynamic weapons that the Bengals possess, but Jeudy and Njoku have proven that they can produce when paired with a competent quarterback. Whether or not Flacco is competent remains to be seen, but if his one preseason performance is any indication, then perhaps he can be competent against this awful defense.

So, we have what could be the superior team getting nearly six points at home against an opponent who often disappoints at this time of year. And if that’s not enough, the large favorite in this matchup often struggles at this venue. Cleveland has been a house of horrors for Burrow, and his offensive line hasn’t been able to protect Garrett at all.

Everything is telling me that the Browns should be the top play this week. In fact, they should be Pick of the Month. We won our September NFL Pick of the Month last year with Arizona covering versus Buffalo, and I suspect we’ll have a similar result with the Browns covering, or perhaps even upsetting, the Bengals.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m holding out hope for a +6, but I don’t think we’re going to get that because Caesars and Bet365 have moved this line to +5. I plan on betting the moneyline in addition to Cleveland plus the points. And by the way, I was glad to hear that long-time handicapper Andy Iskoe, whom I had on the show Wednesday night, agreed with me on this game. You can check out the video here:

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no injuries of note. I’m still holding out hope that we get a +6 at some point, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Bengals -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

It’s surprising that there’s not as much action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 65% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Browns have won 9 of the last 13 meetings, excluding a game where the Browns sat their starters.

Joe Burrow is 44-22 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (5-6 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 3-6 SU, 1-9 ATS in Weeks 1-2

Opening Line: Bengals -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 65 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.