2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: 49ers at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers had so many injuries last year, they were unrecognizable by the end of the season. There are still some injuries, especially to the receivers, but the team is much healthier now. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams, all of whom weren’t there at the end, will be playing in this game.

The Seahawks have built a stout defense, but I don’t trust the linebacker corps. This presents a big problem against Christian McCaffrey. While McCaffrey has a very low chance of remaining healthy all year, he’ll thrive at the beginning of the season, and he’ll be able to take advantage of this liability.

The 49ers will be able to attack the middle of the field with George Kittle as well. Kittle had a monster performance in his one game versus Seattle last year, and he’ll thrive once again to open the 2025 season.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the 49ers have lots of returning personnel, the Seahawks do not. Their quarterback and top receiver from a year ago are gone, with Geno Smith and DK Metcalf now with the Raiders and Steelers, respectively. The Seahawks brought in Sam Darnold to replace Smith, which is an immediate downgrade. Darnold played like a Pro Bowler last year, but won’t perform nearly as well in Seattle.

Darnold figures to get off to a rocky start with his new team. Nick Bosa, who is also returning from injury, will be hounding Darnold, who won’t receive the appropriate blocking from his offensive line. Darnold won’t be able to lean on two talented receivers like he did in Minnesota. He has Jaxson Smith-Njigba, but no one else who’s proven. I like rookie Tory Taylor, but this is just his first game.

The Seahawks will try to run the ball as much as possible to keep Darnold safe. Fred Warner, who was limited with injuries last year, will be at full strength to help clamp down on the run. However, the defensive tackle talent in front of him is very questionable. Seattle will move the chains on the ground better this year because of the additions of Grey Zabel and Robbie Ouzts, so Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet could do well to keep San Francisco’s offense off the field.

RECAP: It’s hard not to be optimistic about the 49ers this year, at least in the regular season. They’re healthy now, and they have the easiest schedule in the NFL. In fact, it’s the easiest schedule I’ve ever seen in my 26 years of covering the NFL for WalterFootball.com. Their toughest game is at Houston! What a joke.

I believe the 49ers will cover more often than not in the regular season, at least while they’re still relatively healthy. They have issues at receiver, but are fine otherwise, and that includes McCaffrey. The star San Francisco back won’t be healthy all year because of his chronic Achilles tendinitis, but he’s fine now. Enjoy betting on him while you can!

I can’t say I’m as high on the Seahawks. Darnold was able to benefit from elite offensive coaching and Justin Jefferson last year. He doesn’t have that in Seattle, so I’m not expecting the Seahawks to be as good as the 49ers at full strength. Thus, I’m backing the 49ers at -2.5, but I don’t see a significant betting angle in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I feel like the Seahawks are a hipster pick. People are taking them because Sam Darnold was so great with the Vikings last year. Well, Darnold no longer has Justin Jefferson or Kevin O’Connell aiding him. The love for Seattle seems unfounded, but then again, maybe San Francisco’s roster is too diminished.

SATURDAY NOTES: I thought we’d get Christian McCaffrey drama this year, but I didn’t believe it would occur in Week 1! McCaffrey has been downgraded with a calf every day this week, failing to practice on Friday. Everyone with the 49ers has said McCaffrey has a good chance of playing, but that’s what they told us last year. I don’t trust anything coming out of San Francisco, so we’re going to have to wait until 3 p.m. on Sunday to see if McCaffrey can go. His status will reflect my pick unit size.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: 49ers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 53% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Seahawks are 31-19 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Seahawks are 22-11 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 83 degrees. Light wind.