2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Buccaneers at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: There’s plenty to be excited about in Atlanta. Michael Penix Jr. will be entering his first full season as a starter, which will present a colossal upgrade over what the Falcons had at quarterback last year. Sure, we’ve only seen glimpses of Penix, but he can’t possibly be worse than Cousins, who was an interception machine in 2024. Cousins was not fully healthy because of he was recovering from a torn Achilles, so it’s puzzling as to why the Falcons didn’t go with Penix earlier.

This won’t be an issue in 2025 because Penix has already been named the starter. He has a strong matchup in this game, given that Tampa Bay’s secondary has struggled for years and will continue to do so. Drake London figures to have a big performance, while Kyle Pitts could have a surprising outing. Pitts dominated the Buccaneers last year, and Tampa Bay hasn’t made the appropriate moves to fix its issues.

The Buccaneers are much better against the run than the pass, so Bijan Robinson won’t have as much rushing room as his owners would like. Kaleb McGary’s absence won’t help matters.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Falcons aren’t the only team missing their blind-side protector. Tristan Wirfs will be sidelined as well, so Atlanta’s new pass rushers will have a better chance of generating pressure on Baker Mayfield than they would otherwise.

Mayfield won’t have his left tackle, his former No. 2 receiver, his tight end, or his offensive coordinator from a year ago in this game. Before you feel too bad for him, consider that Mayfield will have a shiny new toy at his disposal in Emeka Egbuka, who is a great bet to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Egbuka is a supreme route runner and figures to dominate instantly across from Mike Evans.

Mayfield will also be able to lean on the rushing attack. Bucky Irving didn’t have the full-time job in the two meetings against the Falcons last year, so this is a new element Atlanta will have to deal with as it attempts to maintain its dominance over its divisional rival.

RECAP: I don’t understand this spread. I consider the Buccaneers and Falcons to be rather even. If you think the Buccaneers are much better than the Falcons, I’d love to know why. Both teams have explosive offenses and question marks on defense. They both happen to be missing their top tackles. I’d actually argue that Atlanta might be a bit better because of a superior defense. If you think I’m crazy, then how did the Falcons sweep the Buccaneers last year?

Given that the Buccaneers and Falcons are even – I have them side by side in my NFL Power Rankings – then the Falcons should be favored by a point or two with home-field advantage. The fact that they’re home underdogs is absurd. It’s just an incorrect point spread.

I wish we were getting +3. In that case, I’d be all over the Falcons, but I’m still good with taking them at +2.5. If the correct line is -1.5, then we are getting an 8.1-percent advantage in our bet. In other words, if taking a side was a coin flip (50% chance), then we’re 58.1 percent (50 + 8.1) to win with the Falcons, assuming that my projection of -1.5 is the right one.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I got into an argument with someone who claimed that Kirk Cousins was just as good as Michael Penix Jr. last year. Cousins threw a million interceptions after he aggravated his surgically repaired Achilles, so I don’t know how anyone can possibly make that statement. There’s no good reason the Falcons should be +2.5. And that may not be the case much longer, with the Falcons moving to +1.5 in some sportsbooks.

SATURDAY NOTES: We know that both teams were going to be missing their blind-side protectors, with Tristan Wirfs and Kaleb McGary sidelined. What we didn’t know heading into the week was that Vita Vea would be in danger of missing this game. He was DNP on Wednesday and Thursday, but was full on Friday. He’s still listed as questionable, so if he ends up missing this game, the Falcons will be a stronger side.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 63% (66,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Falcons have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Road Team is 142-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.