2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Titans at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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DENVER OFFENSE: It didn’t matter who the quarterback was. The Broncos looked like the Greatest Show on Turf in the preseason. Both Bo Nix and Jarrett Stidham piloted the offense with great precision, as the running backs, receivers, and tight ends all made big plays.

The preseason can be misleading, but the offensive firepower will once again be apparent in this game. The Titans are in the running to have the worst defense in the NFL. Their pass rush took a big hit with Harold Landry departing. Neither Landry nor departed cornerback Chidobe Awuzie were properly replaced, so Nix will have plenty of time in the pocket behind his stout offensive line to locate Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram and the other receivers for big gains.

The Titans still at least have Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat on the defensive line, so they figure to be better against the run than the pass. However, Sean Payton’s new joker, R.J. Harvey, could have success as a receiving threat out of the backfield versus some awful linebackers.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: If the Titans still had their quarterbacks from a year ago, this would be a total blowout. Neither Will Levis nor Mason Rudolph would stand a chance against Denver’s strong defense.

Cam Ward is a much better passer. He is making his first start, so there are bound to be mistakes, but he’s accurate and possesses great mobility. He’ll be able to make plays with his legs to keep some drives alive. There will be mistakes, however, especially because Ward won’t be able to rely on his top receiver, Calvin Ridley, who will be smothered by Patrick Surtain II.

RECAP: I don’t know what to make of this game. I can make arguments for taking both sides. When it comes to siding with the Broncos, fading Ward in his first start seems like a smart idea, especially when considering that he’ll be playing against a great defense in a tough Mile High environment. We saw Jayden Daniels get debacled in his first start last year at Tampa Bay, and while I like Ward as a prospect, he’s no Daniels. This could get ugly for Ward.

So, why not back the Broncos? Because Sean Payton has an abysmal track record in his first couple of weeks of an NFL season. This is not a small sample size either. Payton is 3-18-1 against the spread in the first two weeks of the season since returning from suspension. That’s right. He’s 3-18-1 against the spread. This includes some outright losses as a big favorite, including a defeat to a bad Buccaneers squad when he and Drew Brees were favored by 10 at home in New Orleans.

I don’t know why Payton sucks in the first two weeks of the season, but I’m not about to stand right in front of a 3-18-1 train and put my money on that side. Perhaps we’ll see both elements in this game, where the Broncos get out to a big lead, but surrender a back-door touchdown at the end.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some -8.5 lines have appeared, and there’s even a -9 at Caesars. If you like the Titans, wait until kickoff because there’s an outside chance that you could nab a +10.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Broncos won’t have Dre Greenlaw, which is the most prominent injury heading into this game. Of course, Denver could still cover without him. I saw one known Broncos analyst proclaim on Twitter that this was a trap game for the Broncos. Trap for what? Does he really think the Broncos are looking ahead to the Colts? I know it’s the Battle of the Horses, but still.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Broncos -11.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Slight lean on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 60% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Sean Payton is 3-18 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 83 degrees. Light wind.