2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Texans at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Mina Kimes Fanboy Club. See how upset the beta male losers got upset when I called out their fungal queen.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: We know Matthew Stafford will play in this game, but at what capacity? Stafford dealt with some serious-sounding back issues throughout August. These things can be overblown, but there were reports suggesting that Stafford had problems doing routine things like even walking around. He could be limited in his natural ability, but he could also perform well after being injected.

Another concern for the Rams’ offense is the left tackle situation. Alaric Jackson was expected to miss some time with blood clots in his lungs, but he’s already practicing. Perhaps he’ll return sooner than expected, but I’d still be surprised if he were to play in this game. This isn’t good news for the Rams, who will have to deal with Houston’s electric edge rushers.

The Rams may have to lean heavily on Kyren Williams. There might be an opportunity for the Rams to get something on the ground with Williams, given that the Texans were just slightly above average at stopping the run last year.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: While the Rams have a concern with their offensive line, it’s centered around one position and one player. The Texans have much greater problems in this regard. They lost Laremy Tunsil and have holes everywhere.

This is going to be a huge problem for C.J. Stroud because the Rams also roster several incredibly talented pass rushers. Jared Verse, in particular, caught fire at the end of his rookie year, so he should be able to make a big leap in production in his second season. If so, he’ll start the 2025 campaign off with a bang.

Another issue for the Texans is their lack of a rushing attack. Joe Mixon will be sidelined for at least four weeks, so Houston will have to lean on Nick Chubb, who lacks any sort of explosion after tearing his knee nearly two years ago.

RECAP: If you were to tell me that Stafford is completely healthy, I’d be all over the Rams in this game. They’re a much better team than the Texans, who have some severe issues. Their offensive line was ranked 32nd in the league by Pro Football Focus, and with Mixon sidelined, there’s no rushing attack. A strong defensive team like the Rams can devour one-dimensional offenses, especially when you consider the strength of the Rams’ defense, which is their pass rush. Verse and company will create havoc for Stroud.

Furthermore, the Rams have a big coaching edge. Sean McVay is one of the best head coaches in the NFL and has a great track record in Week 1 as a result. DeMeco Ryans hasn’t been around nearly as long, and his team nearly lost to the Colts to open last year.

The problem with backing the Rams is that Stafford may not be 100 percent. I hate backing injured quarterbacks. It can sometimes work out, but it’s frustrating to side with such an important player limited by injury.

Let’s wait and see what the injury report says, and whether or not we get any concise reporting. Unfortunately, there aren’t any good reporters covering the Rams, and that includes Jourdan Rodrigue, who is a complete disaster as a reporter.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still early in the week, but we don’t have anything on Matthew Stafford yet. I have my doubts that we’ll get something, given how shoddy the reporting is around the Rams. If Jourdan Rodrigue did her job rather than whine about being oppressed all the time, then maybe we’d have some info on Stafford.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Athletic’s Rams reporter, Jourdan Rodrigue, spent all day Friday tweeting about other teams with the exception of one post saying that Sean McVay said everyone would be ready to go. Of course, we couldn’t get anything concrete on Matthew Stafford, so we’ll have to wait and see how he plays.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Rams -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 59% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Sean McVay is 6-2 ATS in Week 1 games.

Opening Line: Rams -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.