2025 NFL Picks – Week 2: 49ers at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The hits just keep on coming. It’s a new season, and yet the 49ers are once again dropping like flies. Brock Purdy is expected to miss this game, as is Jauan Jennings. George Kittle, meanwhile, will be out much longer in the wake of being placed on injured reserve.

The 49ers will be going with Mac Jones, assuming that Purdy will be sidelined. Jones has plenty of experience and was a favorite draft prospect of Kyle Shanahan’s a few years ago. He also has strong talent around him, despite the Kittle, Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk injuries. Ricky Pearsall looked incredible in Week 1, while Christian McCaffrey was at full strength despite coming into the game with a calf injury. The offensive line still has some big names as well, though Trent Williams struggled. Williams has an easier matchup in this game, so perhaps he’ll rebound.

Speaking of easy matchups, the 49ers possess a ton of them in this game because the Saints have an awful defense. New Orleans couldn’t stop Trey Benson and James Conner last week, so how are they going to deal with McCaffrey? Meanwhile, their poor pass rush will give Jones all the time in the world to shred a horrible secondary. Pearsall should have a monster game.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Jones will also be helped by the defense. The stop unit is at least still intact – for now – so containing the Saints shouldn’t be difficult at all.

The primary issue with the Saints on this side of the ball is that they don’t have a viable NFL quarterback. I don’t even know if Spencer Rattler would be a starter in the CFL. He wasn’t horrible against Arizona, but didn’t exactly battle a tough defense. This will be a tougher matchup for him.

The offensive line is another problem. Erik McCoy is great, but the Saints otherwise have inexperienced and pedestrian players starting up front. Nick Bosa will have a field day generating pressure on Rattler, who could commit some turnovers as a result.

RECAP: This game has one of my favorite angles, which is betting backup quarterbacks on good teams when battling non-elite defenses. This has worked extremely well for us in the past, and I see no reason not to utilize it this week. The 49ers, despite the injuries, are still a good team. And we know that the Saints don’t have an elite defense.

While betting the 49ers is very appealing for that reason, fading the Saints is equally appetizing because of Rattler. Fading horrible quarterbacks on bad teams is another angle that has been tremendous over the years.

With two great angles colliding, I see no reason why we can’t bet the 49ers for the maximum amount. We’re even getting a discount on the line, which has dropped through two key numbers because of the Purdy news. And, if that wasn’t enough, we get to fade the public, which is betting New Orleans for some reason!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is -3? -3!!??!?! How!?!??!?!!? I know Mac Jones is starting, but still… -3!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!

LOCKED IN: I’m worried that this line will move to -3.5. It has done so at some sportsbooks, so I’m going to lock in -3 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The 49ers will be playing hard for their backup quarterback.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -7.

Computer Model: 49ers -5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

The public is backing the Saints for some reason.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 69% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Opening Line: 49ers -7.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.