2025 NFL Picks – Week 2: Bills at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: What a comeback by Josh Allen! Sure, the Bills got some help from Derrick Henry’s fumble, but Allen was amazing in the fourth quarter, justifying his MVP award that many criticized. You can purchase the sort of gear that makes Allen deniers cry in our merch store as well.

Allen won’t have as easy of a time passing in this game. The Jets have an excellent secondary and pass rush, which will give Allen some fits. Allen should consider using his legs more; he didn’t run nearly enough in the early stages of the Baltimore contest.

Speaking of running the ball, the Bills will need to establish James Cook in this matchup. While the Jets are strong against the pass, they’re also weak to the run. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell had success on the ground against them, so that obviously bodes well for Cook’s outlook.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: One of the biggest surprises from Week 1 was how well the Jets ran the ball. Pittsburgh is supposed to have a stout defense, but the team looked helpless when trying to tackle Breece Hall. It was reported that Hall would be splitting touches with Braelon Allen evenly, but that wasn’t the case. Hall looked incredible.

The Bills will have similar issues tackling Hall. We know this because we just watched Derrick Henry trample over their defense with ease. It was especially difficult to contain Henry because the Jets also had to worry about Lamar Jackson, but Justin Fields’ presence will pose similar issues.

Fields obviously isn’t nearly as good of a passer as Jackson. However, the Bills have multiple injuries at cornerback, so Fields could pick up where he left off last week with a better-than-expected passing performance.

RECAP: As with the Ravens, the Bills are staring an incredibly obvious sandwich situation. They just had an insane comeback against Baltimore. Now, after this game in which they’re favored by about a touchdown, they have to play Thursday night. Granted, that matchup is against the Dolphins, but it’s still a football game with just four days of preparation.

My inclination is siding with the Jets. I wish we were still getting +8, but sharp money pounded the Jets down to +6.5, so now there’s not nearly as much value.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Once again, we lost some major value with the spread dropping to +6.5, so this game doesn’t look appealing from a betting angle.

PLAYER PROPS: The Bills can’t stop mobile quarterbacks. Take a look at the carries and rushing yards for each mobile quarterback they’ve battled since the beginning of 2024:

Kyler Murray 5-57

Lamar Jackson 6-54

Drake Maye 6-30

Bo Nix 4-43

Lamar Jackson 6-39

Lamar Jackson 6-70

Note that no quarterback ran more than six times. Justin Fields scrambled 12 times in Week 1, so if he has a similar carry number in this game, he’ll exceed the rushing total with ease. The best number is over 43.5 rushing yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Bills just won a 41-40 thriller and have a Thursday night game coming up.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -8.5.

Computer Model: Bills -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 55% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 16 of the last 23 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -8.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .