2025 NFL Picks – Week 2: Broncos at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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DENVER OFFENSE: Many fantasy players and bettors were very bullish on Bo Nix heading into the season, but he was a big disappointment in the opener. He was responsible for three turnovers, though one of his two interceptions was the result of a miscommunication. Still, this was troubling, given that the Tennessee defense isn’t very good.

I didn’t think the Colts defense would be very good either, but they were superb in Week 1. Miami didn’t score a single point until garbage time. Then again, it was just Miami, and the Broncos have the firepower to score more points. Their offensive line is far better than Miami’s, so Nix will have far more protection than Tua Tagovailoa did last week.

Running could be problematic. The Colts didn’t allow anything on the ground last week, and that could once again be the case this Sunday. The two defensive tackles should be able to swallow up R.J. Harvey and J.K. Dobbins.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts couldn’t be stopped last week. Literally. They scored on every single possession. However, something tells me that the magic will come to an end this Sunday.

I don’t need to tell you that Denver’s defense is far better than what Miami has. Instead of Storm Duck, the Broncos have Patrick Surtain II, so they’ll be able to limit Michael Pittman Jr. The Broncos can also bring lots of pressure, so Jones may feel some heat in the pocket, unlike last week. One area where Jones could have success is targeting Tyler Warren, given that Denver isn’t great versus tight ends.

Jones will have to do most of the work himself because he won’t be able to lean on Jonathan Taylor. Though Taylor will be looking to redeem himself after dropping the ball shy of the goal line versus this team last year, it’s unlikely that he’ll find any running room because the Broncos were fourth versus the rush last year.

RECAP: The Colts might be the toughest team to evaluate right now. They had a record-breaking performance in which they scored on all seven positions and shut out their opponent until garbage time. They’re ranked No. 1 in overall EPA after one week. They beat the pathetic Dolphins, however, so it’s difficult to take this seriously.

Still, there’s a chance that the Colts could be decent. If they’re an average Group C team, then we’re getting great line value with them because the spread should be pick ’em or Denver -1. However, if the Colts are the Group D I pegged them to be to start the season, then this spread is correct.

I’m going to be on the Colts for two reasons. First, as I said, this spread is either correct or tilted in favor of Denver, so the Colts seem like the right side from that perspective. Second, Sean Payton is a notoriously slow starter. I discussed this at length last week, but Payton is now 3-19-1 against the spread in Weeks 1-2 since he returned from his Bountygate suspension. I don’t know why he sucks in Weeks 1 and 2, but he just nearly lost to the Titans at home. If his team could nearly fall to the Titans, then they can certainly lose to the Colts in the infamous Battle of the Horses.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been pounding the Colts, which is the side I believe Tom likes in the infamous Battle of the Horses. I still don’t have a strong opinion, though I do want to print Battle of the Horses t-shirts.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -3.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Slight action on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 62% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Sean Payton is 3-19 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.