2025 NFL Picks – Week 2: Giants at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys, despite having no running game and injuries on the offensive line, were keeping up with the Eagles in the opener, at least until the hourlong thunderstorm delay. Still, it was a better showing than expected, albeit one without Jalen Carter, who was ejected for spitting even though Dak Prescott committed the act first.

Unless Brian Burns or Dexter Lawrence is ejected, the Cowboys won’t have as easy of a time moving the chains against New York. The Giants have a solid defense, anchored by a ferocious pass rush that was a bit nullified last week by Jayden Daniels’ great mobility. Prescott can move around, but he’s not nearly as great in that regard as Daniels.

However, I think Prescott will have some success scoring points, especially when targeting CeeDee Lamb. I love betting on great players coming off embarrassing performances, and Lamb certainly had one with his two killer drops in the fourth quarter.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: We currently have no knowledge of who the Giants’ starting quarterback will be in this game. Brian Daboll initially said he was sticking with Russell Wilson, but then told the media that he was going to ask ownership if he could give the nod to Jaxson Dart. I don’t know what sort of clown show organization the Giants are running, but the coach shouldn’t have to ask permission of ownership to do anything coaching-related.

Dart would clearly be the better choice over Wilson, who is a decrepit shell of his former self. Jameis Winston would be much better than Wilson as well, so I don’t even know how Wilson is in the conversation, or even on an NFL roster right now. Wilson gives the Giants no hope of scoring points, even against a Dallas defense that is markedly worse without Micah Parsons. If the Giants didn’t have Andrew Thomas again, they’d be in big trouble if Parsons were still on Dallas’ roster, but the pass rush won’t be as much of an issue as it has been in the past.

Regardless, the Giants will be able to run on the Cowboys. Dallas has been horrible versus the rush over the past few seasons, and Tyrone Tracy is an explosive back who will be able to rip off some long gains.

RECAP: I couldn’t quite figure out where to place the Giants in my NFL Power Rankings. Yes, they should be near the bottom, but are they a Group D (below average) team, or a Group F (atrocious) team? I think many people would say that they’re atrocious after they lost 21-6 to the Redskins last week, but Washington is one of the best teams in the NFL. Also, while Wilson is anemic, the defense is actually pretty decent. Limiting Daniels to just 21 points is no small feat.

New York’s quarterback situation will dictate where I go with my pick. If it’s Wilson again, the Giants may just quit because the players know there are better options. I think the Giants could be an F team with Wilson and a D team with either Winston or Dart, and if I’m right, Dallas will be the right side.

If, however, the Giants make the quarterback change, I’ll be on New York. Winston and Dart are clear upgrades over Wilson, and we’ll be getting nice value at +6. Check back later for updates!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t know if we have confirmation yet, but it sounds like Wilson will start again. There’s a chance Brian Daboll could lose the locker room because of this asinine decision. I’m going to switch my pick to the Cowboys, assuming New York is going with Wilson.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.

Computer Model: Cowboys -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 57% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Cowboys have won 20 of the last 24 meetings.

Russell Wilson is 34-17 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Russell Wilson is 36-20 ATS as an underdog.

Cowboys are 25-16 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Dak Prescott is 38-31 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.