2025 NFL Picks – Week 2: Falcons at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Return of Q. I ran into a very weird person for the second time.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: J.J. McCarthy looked terrible through three quarters on Monday night. He constantly had passes batted down at the line of scrimmage, and he had some horrible misfires. The issues with the audio and the poor pass protection at left tackle didn’t help matters. However, the switch flipped on for McCarthy in the fourth quarter, and he was suddenly unstoppable.

It’ll help McCarthy if Christian Darrisaw is available for this game. The Falcons improved their pass rush in the offseason, so they’ll be able to generate heat on McCarthy if Darrisaw is unavailable. This will obviously make things extremely difficult, especially given that Justin Jefferson will have to deal with a No. 1 cornerback this week after getting a reprieve Monday night with Jaylon Johnson sidelined.

The Vikings will need to establish Jordan Mason to give McCarthy more of a chance if Darrisaw isn’t around once again. This will be difficult, given that the Falcons are better against the run than Chicago is.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While the Vikings won’t have as much success running the ball this week, the Falcons will do much better in that regard. Bijan Robinson scored a long receiving touchdown last week, but didn’t do much on the ground. This was expected because the Vita Vea-led Buccaneers were second versus the run last year, while Minnesota was just in the middle of the pack.

With Robinson doing more on the ground, Michael Penix Jr. will have an easier time operating in short-yardage situations. I don’t really trust the Minnesota cornerbacks, so Drake London could have a big game.

The Vikings will have to disrupt this with their pass rush. They might be able to do this, as their talented defensive line projects well against the Falcons and their third-string right tackle.

RECAP: Maybe I’m overreacting, but I moved the Vikings down from Group A to Group B. McCarthy was awful for three quarters. I know he was great in the final frame, but the Bears’ already-mediocre defense was missing three starters. I expected more of a convincing win by the Vikings.

With that in mind, I made this line Minnesota -3.5, which is a bit shy of the current line of -5. We’re not getting any key numbers, so I don’t see any line value with the Falcons even though I believe they’re the right side in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: After some consideration, I’m changing this pick to the Vikings, though I won’t bet them unless Drake London is sidelined. Minnesota is the better team, and I think fading NFC South teams outside of the division is generally a good idea.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -4.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of action on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 79% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Vikings are 49-38 ATS at home since 2014 (18-23 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -4.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.