2025 NFL Picks – Week 2: Falcons at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Return of Q. I ran into a very weird person for the second time.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: J.J. McCarthy looked terrible through three quarters on Monday night. He constantly had passes batted down at the line of scrimmage, and he had some horrible misfires. The issues with the audio and the poor pass protection at left tackle didn’t help matters. However, the switch flipped on for McCarthy in the fourth quarter, and he was suddenly unstoppable.

It’ll help McCarthy if Christian Darrisaw is available for this game. The Falcons improved their pass rush in the offseason, so they’ll be able to generate heat on McCarthy if Darrisaw is unavailable. This will obviously make things extremely difficult, especially given that Justin Jefferson will have to deal with a No. 1 cornerback this week after getting a reprieve Monday night with Jaylon Johnson sidelined.

The Vikings will need to establish Jordan Mason to give McCarthy more of a chance if Darrisaw isn’t around once again. This will be difficult, given that the Falcons are better against the run than Chicago is.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While the Vikings won’t have as much success running the ball this week, the Falcons will do much better in that regard. Bijan Robinson scored a long receiving touchdown last week, but didn’t do much on the ground. This was expected because the Vita Vea-led Buccaneers were second versus the run last year, while Minnesota was just in the middle of the pack.

With Robinson doing more on the ground, Michael Penix Jr. will have an easier time operating in short-yardage situations. I don’t really trust the Minnesota cornerbacks, so Drake London could have a big game.

The Vikings will have to disrupt this with their pass rush. They might be able to do this, as their talented defensive line projects well against the Falcons and their third-string right tackle.

RECAP: Maybe I’m overreacting, but I moved the Vikings down from Group A to Group B. McCarthy was awful for three quarters. I know he was great in the final frame, but the Bears’ already-mediocre defense was missing three starters. I expected more of a convincing win by the Vikings.

With that in mind, I made this line Minnesota -3.5, which is a bit shy of the current line of -5. We’re not getting any key numbers, so I don’t see any line value with the Falcons even though I believe they’re the right side in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: After some consideration, I’m changing this pick to the Vikings, though I won’t bet them unless Drake London is sidelined. Minnesota is the better team, and I think fading NFC South teams outside of the division is generally a good idea.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Falcons have a big injury edge in this game. Drake London was considered questionable earlier in the week, but he’s not on the injury report. Darnell Mooney will play, too. Conversely, the Vikings will be missing their best offensive lineman – Christian Darrisaw – and their do-it-all front-seven player, Andrew Van Ginkel. I don’t like backing NFC South teams outside of the division, but Atlanta is just much healthier and will have the luxury of an extra day of preparation.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going with Drake London over 73.5 receiving yards, Justin Jefferson under 76.5 receiving yards, Darnell Mooney under 40.5 receiving yards, and Jordan Mason over 56.5 rushing yards. I love London because Michael Penix Jr., as a young quarterback, is locked in on his No. 1 receiver. This is why I dislike Mooney, who may not be healthy. Jefferson isn’t appealing because Christian Darrisaw is out, while Jordan Mason is handling most of the workload. This $30 parlay pays $495 with a 50-percent boost. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY II: FanDuel also has a 50-percent boost, so we’re going with a safer parlay. We’re going with Drake London 50+ receiving yards, Drake London 5+ receptions, Bijan Robinson 50+ rushing yards, and Jordan Mason 30+ rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $55 with the boost. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: If the Sunday afternoon games go well, I’ll consider betting the Falcons for a small amount. Check back around 7:45 p.m. for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: In addition to Christian Darrisaw and Andrew Van Ginkel being out, Harrison Smith will be sidelined as well. This could be the reason why the sharps are on the Falcons, while the public is on Atlanta. I’m not going to bet this game because of the tilt from the bulls**t back-door cover in the Arizona game. If you want to bet the Falcons, the best line is +3.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -4.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of action on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 72% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.