2025 NFL Picks – Week 2: Bears at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Both of these offenses failed last week, but we might as well begin with the one we saw most recently. Chicago had a strong opening drive, but didn’t score a single offensive touchdown after that until garbage time. Chicago fans must have been disappointed with the result, but it was expected. Caleb Williams needs lots of positive coaching and isn’t quite there yet, plus Ben Johnson was coaching in his first game. He’ll learn from his mistakes like not onside kicking it when having just one timeout remaining.

The Bears have an easier matchup this week, so perhaps they’ll have more success on the scoreboard. The Lions have some injuries in the middle of their defense that Johnson should be able to exploit. The Packers just ran successfully on the Lions, so the Bears will be able to do the same with D’Andre Swift.

The Lions also have problems in their secondary, partly stemming from the change at defensive coordinator. Williams could exploit this weak area with his many weapons.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Speaking of weapons, the Lions have plenty of them, but could barely do anything against the Packers. A big part of the problem was Johnson’s absence. Two losses in the interior of the offensive line made the blocking much worse as well.

The Bears were able to limit the Vikings through three quarters, so perhaps they’ll be able to do the same thing to the Lions, who look like a shell of themselves without Johnson and Frank Ragnow. I don’t love Chicago’s pass rush, but it’s not a bad unit, so Jared Goff could be under siege again.

I’d say the Lions will have better luck running the ball than they did last week. We just saw Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones combine for nearly 100 rushing yards against Chicago, after all. The Bears were 22nd against the run in 2024, so this would have been a great matchup for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to exploit, but Detroit’s ground attack just isn’t the same this year.

RECAP: We’re getting a big overreaction on this spread. The Lions were -4.5 before Week 1, yet have moved up to -6 despite getting blown out at Green Bay. This is because of what transpired in one quarter of the Chicago-Minnesota game.

I like getting the value at +6. It’s also great having the coaching edge in this game. I faded Johnson last week because it was his first NFL game, but he now has the advantage because he possesses great knowledge of the Lions. He built their offense, after all. He has more insight on Goff’s weaknesses than anyone, so he’ll be able to relay that to his defensive coordinator.

The Bears seem like a strong side at +6. We’re getting nice line value, a huge overreaction, a fade of one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, and a big coaching edge. What’s holding me back from making this five units is that the Bears are on a short week, while my trust in Williams is still rather low.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money is coming in on the Lions. Even the sharps don’t recognize how overrated the Lions are! On Wednesday’s pick show, Andy gave a compelling case about why the one fewer day of rest isn’t significant for the Bears, and it’s because they are familiar with their opponent. You can watch the show here:

PLAYER PROPS: Rome Odunze had way more targets than D.J. Moore in the final preseason game. He had more targets than Moore in Week 1. One is an accident, two is a trend, and yet D.J. Moore’s receptions number is higher than Odunze’s. I think Odunze is now the No. 1 receiver in Chicago, so I’m going to bet the over receptions. The vig sucks, so this will be just half a unit. The best number is over 3.5 catches -157 at BetRivers.

The Motivation. Edge: Bears.

A revenge game for Ben Johnson, while the Lions take on the Ravens on Monday Night Football next week.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -4.5.

Computer Model: Lions -5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Sharp money on Detroit.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 57% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Lions have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: Lions -4.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.