2025 NFL Picks – Week 2: Patriots at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MIAMI OFFENSE: I don’t know if the Miami offense or defense was more pathetic last week. Somehow, Miami was the worst among all NFL teams at both, which is quite an impressive feat.

The Dolphins didn’t score a single point until garbage time against the Colts. The primary culprit was the offensive line, which couldn’t block an Indianapolis pass rush that isn’t all that great. The Patriots, who added some talent to the defensive line this offseason, figure to have the horses to get to Tua Tagovailoa.

And speaking of Tagovailoa, he was also especially bad. I don’t know if all of his concussions have caught up with him, or if Mike McDaniel isn’t preparing him at all, but Tagovailoa doesn’t look like an NFL quarterback. Mike Vrabel is an excellent defensive coach, and he should be able to devise a game plan to make Tagovailoa perform like he did in Week 1.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Miami’s defense set a record for futility in Week 1. For the first time this century, a team (Colts) was able to score on every single possession. Tom Brady didn’t do that. Peyton Manning didn’t do that. Drew Brees didn’t do that. Aaron Rodgers didn’t do that. Even the great Cleo Lemon didn’t do that. But Daniel Jones did.

Of course, what can you expect from a miserable defense that starts a cornerback named Storm Duck? It should be noted that Duck didn’t even make it through the entire game, so Miami was playing someone even worse than Storm Duck. The Dolphins have the worst cornerbacks I’ve ever seen, so the New England receivers will get open easily. This includes Kayshon Boutte, who is finally coming into his own. Boutte was considered a first-round prospect long ago, but fell in the draft. It’s been years, but he might finally be living up to expectations.

The Dolphins were horrible versus tight ends and running backs last week as well. Hunter Henry could have a nice game, but TreVeyon Henderson interests me the most. Henderson was clearly the superior running back when compared to Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 1. New England would do well to invole Henderson more this Sunday.

RECAP: The Dolphins are the worst team in football. I made this adjustment in my NFL Power Rankings. They’re a joke, and I don’t think I’m overreacting to one week. I heard various reports saying that when opponents took on the Dolphins in joint practices this summer, they came away wondering why Miami was so bad. But those were just joint practices. And then in the preseason, the Dolphins starting offensive line couldn’t block third-string players. But that was just preseason. Now, the Dolphins were absolutely throttled by the Colts, who scored on every single possession in last week’s game. Miami’s offense, meanwhile, couldn’t do anything until garbage time.

There is no reason the Dolphins should be favored in this game. None. I know the Patriots aren’t very good, but they’re much better than they were last year. They hung tight with a similarly improved Raiders squad, even leading at halftime.

My only concern with the Patriots is that they’ll be playing in very hot and humid weather, but given that they are substantially better than the Dolphins – I’m convinced everyone in the NFL is – then it shouldn’t matter.

I’m holding out hope for a +3, but I don’t think we’ll get it. Hopefully I’m wrong about that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Dolphins will be without two starting offensive linemen in this game. Somehow, the blocking will be far worse in this game than it was last week.

PLAYER PROPS: I love to bet tight end overs against teams that can’t defend tight ends. The Dolphins qualify as such, ranking in the bottom five against tight ends last year. Tyler Warren ripped through their defense last week, so Henry should do the same. The best odds are over 31.5 receiving yards -117 at BetRivers.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Why are people betting on the Dolphins?

Percentage of money on Miami: 56% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Dolphins have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Dolphins are 35-48 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .