2025 NFL Picks – Week 2: Eagles at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I can’t tell you how frustrating it was to see Xavier Worthy get knocked out of the game before the opening drive in Brazil even concluded. We just lost two units on Jalen Carter getting ejected prior to kickoff, and then we saw four units go down the drain because Worthy’s absence ruined Kansas City’s entire game plan. The Chiefs eventually got their act together in the second half, but they couldn’t climb out of their hole.

Worthy probably won’t play in this game, but Andy Reid will be able to formulate a game plan to exploit Philadelphia’s big hole at No. 2 cornerback. The Eagles had issues stopping the Cowboys last week – albeit without Warren – so Reid certainly took notice. It’s also hard to imagine Reid not game planning for this battle since the schedule was released back in May.

The Eagles could completely foil Reid’s plans, however. They rattled Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl with their relentless pass rush, and they could do the same thing in the rematch. Josh Simmons is better than Joe Thuney at left tackle, but there’s no Thuney-type presence at left guard. With Carter back on the field, the Eagles could easily dominate the trenches.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I found it hilarious that people blamed Saquon Barkley’s underwhelming performance in the Super Bowl on fatigue. I seriously heard that many times this past spring and summer. I imagine those same people were critical of Omarion Hampton in his debut.

These people should probably consider looking at run defense rankings because they’d find that the Chiefs are near the top. They’ll be able to limit Barkley again, unlike the Cowboys in the opener. Thus, Jalen Hurts will have to do more.

Hurts is an incredible scrambler, but ripping the ball downfield is not his specialty. He was great in the Super Bowl, but outside of one long pass to Jahan Dotson, his ability to launch the ball downfield versus Dallas wasn’t very great. Just ask A.J. Brown what he thinks with his one target. The Chiefs are very weak to the pass, as we saw when Justin Herbert torched them in Brazil, but the Eagles may not be able to take advantage of that liability this time.

RECAP: It’s a shame that the Eagles and Chiefs are playing against each other this week because they’d both be fine bounce-back overreaction candidates. The Eagles struggled to beat the crappy Cowboys, while the Chiefs lost outright. Both teams, however, lost key players before the conclusion of the first drive, and this greatly impacted their game plans.

I’m going to side with the Chiefs in this game. Reid has been preparing for this game for five months after Philadelphia demolished his team in the Super Bowl. I also like the idea of backing Mahomes off a loss. Any elite quarterback will have a positive track record following a defeat, and Mahomes obviously qualifies as such.

Also, it seems as though the Chiefs are a better overreaction candidate than the Eagles. I say this because Kansas City opened -1.5 and is now +1. I know this isn’t a huge line move, but it’s an indication that the Chiefs are a bit undervalued.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This was Andy’s strongest pick of the week on our Wednesday picks show. He loves the Chiefs. I’m also on the Kansas City side, but with far less conviction.

PLAYER PROPS: I love A.J. Brown for the squeaky wheel narrative. This matchup is great, too, because Brown eats up man defenses, and the Chiefs play a ton of man. The best number is over 66.5 receiving yards -111 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

Super Bowl revenge for the Chiefs.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -1.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Public on the Chiefs, sharps on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 72% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Eagles are 41-28 ATS as road underdogs since 2005. ???

Chiefs are 13-31 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007. ???

Patrick Mahomes is 100-26 SU, 66-58 ATS (52-45 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 13-9 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .