NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2025): 9-2-1 (+$890)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
2025 NFL Picks: 18-9-1 (+$165)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 14, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

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Week 1 Analysis: The good news is that we won our September NFL Pick of the Month with the Browns covering against the Bengals. The bad news was that we whiffed on our three 4-5 unit picks. And we had a fourth, but I dropped the unit count on Arizona when Kyler Murray was put on the injury report Sunday morning with an illness. Had we gotten one of our 4-5 unit picks correct, we would have won money in Week 1.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Chiefs, 4 units (loss): It’s hard not to blame this one on injury. Kansas City’s offensive game plan was ruined when Xavier Worthy got hurt on the first drive. This was 24 hours after Jalen Carter was ejected (we bet the Eagles for two units.)

Steelers, 5 units (loss): I’m shocked by how bad Pittsburgh’s defense was. The Steelers still had a chance to cover, but they couldn’t stop the Jets at any point.

Giants, 4 units (loss): Russell Wilson sucks. I was not shocked by that, but I thought the Giants would at least score some points. This was a dumb pick.

Browns, 8 units (win): The Browns should have won this game outright. They outgained the Bengals by almost 200 yards!

Packers, 3 units (win): I wish all games were this easy.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers didn’t have any issues moving the chains in their season opener against the Lions. They routinely marched down the field against a defense that was supposed to be better with the return of Aidan Hutchinson and other players who were injured last year.

The Packers ran the ball very well against the Lions, but they may not have as much success in this contest. The Redskins are stout against ground attacks, so it wasn’t a surprise that they bottled up Tyrone Tracy very effectively. Josh Jacobs is a better back, but they should be able to limit him fairly well.

It’ll be tougher for “No Cookie” Jordan Love to operate without Jacobs ripping off significant yardage on many of his carries. The Redskins improved their pass rush and secondary since last year’s trade deadline, and Matthew Golden isn’t fully involved in the offense yet, so Washington could limit Green Bay.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Detroit didn’t have Ben Johnson last week, but they still returned all of their key players, save for two of their interior linemen. Despite Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery and Jared Goff being on the field, Detroit could barely move the ball. Green Bay’s defense, enhanced by Micah Parsons, completely dismantled Detroit’s offense.

I have more faith in the Redskins moving the ball. They didn’t undergo a coordinator change, nor did they lose multiple offensive linemen this offseason. In fact, they obtained Laremy Tunsil, who will be absolutely enormous in this matchup. Tunsil is one of the few left tackles who can slow down Parsons, which is obviously huge for Jayden Daniels.

It’s also worth noting that Daniels’ athleticism will come up big in this contest. Goff is a statue in the pocket, but Daniels can escape the pass rush and use his legs to beat the opposition. This came up last week against the Giants’ talented pass rush, and Daniels bailed his team out on occasion.

RECAP: Week 2 is often known as Overreaction Week because people form wild opinions based on what transpired in one week of football. Need I remind you that last year, the Patriots beat the Bengals, or that the Saints won 47-10, or that the Redskins were blown out in Tampa Bay?

There doesn’t seem like there is as much overreaction this year as there has been in the past, but the Packers certainly qualify. They were absolutely dominant against the Lions, causing the line to jump from -2.5 to -3.5. However, people still don’t seem to realize how much regression there is in store for Detroit. I imagine some bettors believe that the Packers have a good chance of dismantling the Redskins, completely dismissing the fact that Washington is a better team than Detroit.

With that in mind, I like the Redskins. I believe we’re getting some great value on this spread, which I personally made +1.5. Securing three is key here, given that it’s the primary key number in the NFL. I was considering Washington as a two-unit wager at +3, but the line has moved to +3.5. I realize that this is a sign of strength for the Packers, and that the sharps are responsible for this, but I don’t believe the sharps are on the right side of this game.

Our Week 2 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here from me, though it’s not great to be on the same side as a publicly backed underdog. I discussed some props I like in this video:

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to bet Zach Ertz over receiving yards. Sam LaPorta just had a big game, thanks to Green Bay’s fierce pass rush forcing the opposing quarterback to target lower ADOT (average depth of target) players. Ertz has eclipsed this posted total in 10 of his 17 games last year. The best number is over 32.5 receiving yards -112 at FanDuel.

DraftKings has a 25-percent boost for an NFL same-game parlay. We’re going to bet Ertz over 33.5 receiving yards, Matthew Golden under 35.5 receiving yards, Austin Ekler 3+ receptions, and Redskins +3.5. This $15 parlay pays $159.45. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SPORTSBOOK PROMOS: BetMGM has a no-sweat bet for this game up to $20. DraftKings has a no-sweat bet up to $25. FanDuel has a 50-percent profit boost for this game. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

LOCKED IN: The sharps have jumped on the Redskins, knocking this line down to +3 in most places. DraftKings still has +3.5 -118 available, so we’ll be betting that right now before that disappears. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned this afternoon, the sharps bet the Redskins at +3.5, perhaps because the Packers will be missing two starting offensive linemen: Aaron Banks and Zach Tom. The sharps drove the line down to +3 at almost every sportsbook. DraftKings, however, still has +3.5 -118 available.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -2.5.

Computer Model: Packers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 52% (296,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 59-41 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 61 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MIAMI OFFENSE: I don’t know if the Miami offense or defense was more pathetic last week. Somehow, Miami was the worst among all NFL teams at both, which is quite an impressive feat.

The Dolphins didn’t score a single point until garbage time against the Colts. The primary culprit was the offensive line, which couldn’t block an Indianapolis pass rush that isn’t all that great. The Patriots, who added some talent to the defensive line this offseason, figure to have the horses to get to Tua Tagovailoa.

And speaking of Tagovailoa, he was also especially bad. I don’t know if all of his concussions have caught up with him, or if Mike McDaniel isn’t preparing him at all, but Tagovailoa doesn’t look like an NFL quarterback. Mike Vrabel is an excellent defensive coach, and he should be able to devise a game plan to make Tagovailoa perform like he did in Week 1.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Miami’s defense set a record for futility in Week 1. For the first time this century, a team (Colts) was able to score on every single possession. Tom Brady didn’t do that. Peyton Manning didn’t do that. Drew Brees didn’t do that. Aaron Rodgers didn’t do that. Even the great Cleo Lemon didn’t do that. But Daniel Jones did.

Of course, what can you expect from a miserable defense that starts a cornerback named Storm Duck? It should be noted that Duck didn’t even make it through the entire game, so Miami was playing someone even worse than Storm Duck. The Dolphins have the worst cornerbacks I’ve ever seen, so the New England receivers will get open easily. This includes Kayshon Boutte, who is finally coming into his own. Boutte was considered a first-round prospect long ago, but fell in the draft. It’s been years, but he might finally be living up to expectations.

The Dolphins were horrible versus tight ends and running backs last week as well. Hunter Henry could have a nice game, but TreVeyon Henderson interests me the most. Henderson was clearly the superior running back when compared to Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 1. New England would do well to invole Henderson more this Sunday.

RECAP: The Dolphins are the worst team in football. I made this adjustment in my NFL Power Rankings. They’re a joke, and I don’t think I’m overreacting to one week. I heard various reports saying that when opponents took on the Dolphins in joint practices this summer, they came away wondering why Miami was so bad. But those were just joint practices. And then in the preseason, the Dolphins starting offensive line couldn’t block third-string players. But that was just preseason. Now, the Dolphins were absolutely throttled by the Colts, who scored on every single possession in last week’s game. Miami’s offense, meanwhile, couldn’t do anything until garbage time.

There is no reason the Dolphins should be favored in this game. None. I know the Patriots aren’t very good, but they’re much better than they were last year. They hung tight with a similarly improved Raiders squad, even leading at halftime.

My only concern with the Patriots is that they’ll be playing in very hot and humid weather, but given that they are substantially better than the Dolphins – I’m convinced everyone in the NFL is – then it shouldn’t matter.

I’m holding out hope for a +3, but I don’t think we’ll get it. Hopefully I’m wrong about that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Dolphins will be without two starting offensive linemen in this game. Somehow, the blocking will be far worse in this game than it was last week.

PLAYER PROPS: I love to bet tight end overs against teams that can’t defend tight ends. The Dolphins qualify as such, ranking in the bottom five against tight ends last year. Tyler Warren ripped through their defense last week, so Henry should do the same. The best odds are over 31.5 receiving yards -117 at BetRivers.

SATURDAY NOTES: I don’t know why the odds have moved a bit toward the Dolphins. Perhaps it’s the sharps trying desperately to get a +3, but it’s not going to happen. Miami is a mess with two injured offensive linemen and some absent defensive players.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have played both sides of this game, which is surprising. Maybe they think the Dolphins will bounce back, but bounce back to what, exactly? The best line is +2.5 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Why are people betting on the Dolphins?

Percentage of money on Miami: 51% (118,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Dolphins have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Dolphins are 35-48 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 86 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions +2.5

Dolphins +1.5

Vikings -1.5

Chiefs -3

Ravens +1

The public went 1-4 this past week, with only the Vikings prevailing.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Vikings -5

Steelers -2.5

Chiefs +1

Saints +4.5

Titans +5.5

Three underdogs is very odd, but that’s what the public is betting now.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It was no surprise to see the Bengals struggle in Cleveland last week. I’m confident I had Joe Burrow ranked lower in Week 1 fantasy football rankings than anyone in the industry, and that was because he always struggles in Cleveland. There was a sequence in which Burrow was sacked three times during a three-and-out, which was a part of the Bengals’ meager 141-yard outing.

Things will be much easier for the Bengals in this game. The Jaguars seem like they’re going to be weak to the run again, so Cincinnati will be able to get into short-yardage opportunities via Chase Brown runs.

One thing the Jaguars have going for them on this side of the ball is their pass rush. This will create some problems for the Bengals, whose already-poor offensive line lost a key blocker last week as a result of Lucas Patrick suffering an injury.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Of course, Cincinnati’s defense will be the reason for the team’s downfall. The Browns scored just 16 points last week, but only because two drops turned into interceptions and the kicker missed four points.

The Jaguars won’t make the same mistakes. Not only do they have a great kicker; they also possess tons of weapons with whom the Bengals will have severe issues. Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter will create severe headaches for Cincinnati’s poor secondary, while Travis Etienne should once again have a great game against a Cincinnati front that had trouble containing Dylan Sampson last week.

The one hope the Bengals have is putting lots of pressure on Trevor Lawrence. Trey Hendrickson looked great in Week 1, and Jacksonville’s tackle situation isn’t amazing, so Lawrence will feel some heat.

RECAP: I disagreed with this opening spread more than any other in Week 2. The Bengals were by 5.5, but I have this line calculated at -2. This line has since plummeted to -3.5, thanks to severe sharp action on Jacksonville.

The Bengals are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, if not the most overrated team. Their defense is awful, while their offensive line is extremely shaky. It was telling that Cincinnati accumulated just 141 net yards of offense, most of which occurred on the opening drive. The Bengals did next to nothing the rest of the game because they couldn’t block. So, you’re telling me that a team that can’t stop anything or block anyone should be favored by more than a field goal over a competent opponent? Get the heck out of here.

As if the Jaguars didn’t look appealing enough, the Bengals are also notoriously slow starters. They’re now 2-9 straight up in Weeks 1-2 in the Burrow era. Their only wins have come against the Browns, who outgained them by about 200 yards, and the Vikings in 2021, who would’ve won if Dalvin Cook didn’t fumble the ball over midfield in overtime.

We faded the Bengals successfully last week for a huge play, and we’re going to do the same thing until the sportsbooks price them correctly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps took the Jaguars down from +5.5 to +3.5, but haven’t touched them at +3.5. That doesn’t mean that they eventually won’t. I might consider locking in Jacksonville once we have our final injury report.

PLAYER PROPS: Cincinnati is another team that can’t defend tight ends. There were not one, but two tight ends who went over this posted receiving yards total in Week 1 against them. Brenton Strange is heavily utilized, and Liam Coen said that Travis Hunter will focus more on defense in this game. The best number is over 31.5 receiving yards -113 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: It sucks that we’re no longer getting +5.5, but I still love the Jaguars at +3.5. It’s not like four is a big key number anyway, so the line difference probably won’t come into play, especially with Cincinnati missing a key blocker (Lucas Patrick) from its already-terrible offensive line.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have taken the Jaguars above +3.5, but haven’t bet them as much at +3.5. The best line is +3.5 -110 at ESPNBet. If you’re limited on ESPNBet, the best line is +3.5 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -5.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 52% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Jaguars are 66-112 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Joe Burrow is 44-23 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (5-6 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 2-9 SU in Weeks 1-2

Opening Line: Bengals -5.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 82 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from the summer:

I compiled tons of hate mail in last week’s Jerks of the Week entry, entitled the The Mina Kimes Fanboy Club.

Here, we have some more I didn’t post in that article:

I wish I had seen these when they were posted so I could have replied to these beta male cucks. I love how the one guy thinks Mina Kimes and I are going to sit down and break down film together. What a loon. Also, with that guy saying that we have 2004 formatting here: Excuse me, this is 1999 formatting. Get your facts straight.

Here’s something from last week:

Is this guy spying on me, or something? How did he know!?

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens lost last week, but they were the better team. They averaged north of eight yards per play, and they would have prevailed over Buffalo had Derrick Henry not lost a fumble.

However, the Baltimore offense is in for a bigger challenge this week. Cleveland just limited the Bengals to 141 net yards of offense. I don’t think the Browns will have similar success in this game because the Ravens have a much better offensive line than the Bengals, but Myles Garrett and the other Cleveland edge players will do a better job of keeping Lamar Jackson in check on the ground.

The Browns will also be able to limit Henry much more effectively than Buffalo. Of course, you could say that’ll happen by default, but the Browns won’t allow Henry to break free for multiple long runs like the Bills did on Sunday night.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Ravens surrendered 41 points to the Bills, but their defense was doing a great job on Josh Allen and company until late in the game when they were exhausted after playing so many snaps.

It goes without saying that the Browns are a far less challenging opponent than Buffalo, but it’s not like Cleveland is inept on this side of the ball. Joe Flacco brings professionalism to Cleveland’s quarterback position, which is something the team didn’t have last year when it was starting Deshaun Watson and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Flacco was quite good in Week 1, albeit against a horrible Cincinnati defense. He threw two interceptions, but only because his receivers bobbled balls thrown to them and had those balls pop into the arms of Cincinnati players.

The Browns still have a major issue on this side of the ball, and that would be the lack of a rushing attack. Perhaps this will change when Quinshon Judkins is ready to go, but neither Jerome Ford nor Dylan Sampson are effective runners. A strong defense like Baltimore’s won’t have much of an issue defending a one-dimensional offense.

RECAP: This is a classic sandwich game for the Ravens. They’re coming off that ridiculous 41-40 affair against the Bills, and after this “easy” game against the Browns, they’ll be playing Monday night against Detroit. I don’t think the Lions are a great team anymore, but most people don’t realize that. A 15-2 opponent from a year ago will certainly be on Baltimore’s radar, especially in a nationally televised game.

It’ll be shocking if the Ravens bring 100-percent effort in this game. They believe they can beat the Browns with one hand tied behind their back, and we saw something similar in Week 2 last year. The Ravens lost to the Chiefs and then were a no-show against the crappy Raiders. They ended up losing outright.

I said this last week, but I don’t think the Browns are as bad as some people make them out to be. They have a great defense that just limited Joe Burrow to 141 yards, and their offensive line is solid. They also have talented weapons and a veteran quarterback who can take care of the football. Things will go south for the Browns once Flacco is inevitably replaced by Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders, but we can bet them safely at the moment.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. I still like the Browns for a couple of units on this high spread.

SATURDAY NOTES: Evan convinced me to move off the Browns on Thursday’s show:

He argued that the Ravens are an S-tier team and that it would be a mistake to fade them in reasonably lined games. I would still pick the Browns to cover in an office pool, but I’m not going to bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns have some bad injury news, which is that Jack Conklin won’t play. This creates a big problem at tackle, which is not ideal against a strong defense. The sharps actually bet Baltimore at -11.5. The best line is +12.5 -107. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

Following the Buffalo shootout, the Ravens have this game and then a Monday night affair against the Lions. A classic sandwich situation.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -10.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -12.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -13.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 55% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Ravens have won 26 of the last 34 meetings.

Lamar Jackson is 10-3 ATS as a favorite of 10+.

Lamar Jackson is 15-22 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -12.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 82 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys, despite having no running game and injuries on the offensive line, were keeping up with the Eagles in the opener, at least until the hourlong thunderstorm delay. Still, it was a better showing than expected, albeit one without Jalen Carter, who was ejected for spitting even though Dak Prescott committed the act first.

Unless Brian Burns or Dexter Lawrence is ejected, the Cowboys won’t have as easy of a time moving the chains against New York. The Giants have a solid defense, anchored by a ferocious pass rush that was a bit nullified last week by Jayden Daniels’ great mobility. Prescott can move around, but he’s not nearly as great in that regard as Daniels.

However, I think Prescott will have some success scoring points, especially when targeting CeeDee Lamb. I love betting on great players coming off embarrassing performances, and Lamb certainly had one with his two killer drops in the fourth quarter.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: We currently have no knowledge of who the Giants’ starting quarterback will be in this game. Brian Daboll initially said he was sticking with Russell Wilson, but then told the media that he was going to ask ownership if he could give the nod to Jaxson Dart. I don’t know what sort of clown show organization the Giants are running, but the coach shouldn’t have to ask permission of ownership to do anything coaching-related.

Dart would clearly be the better choice over Wilson, who is a decrepit shell of his former self. Jameis Winston would be much better than Wilson as well, so I don’t even know how Wilson is in the conversation, or even on an NFL roster right now. Wilson gives the Giants no hope of scoring points, even against a Dallas defense that is markedly worse without Micah Parsons. If the Giants didn’t have Andrew Thomas again, they’d be in big trouble if Parsons were still on Dallas’ roster, but the pass rush won’t be as much of an issue as it has been in the past.

Regardless, the Giants will be able to run on the Cowboys. Dallas has been horrible versus the rush over the past few seasons, and Tyrone Tracy is an explosive back who will be able to rip off some long gains.

RECAP: I couldn’t quite figure out where to place the Giants in my NFL Power Rankings. Yes, they should be near the bottom, but are they a Group D (below average) team, or a Group F (atrocious) team? I think many people would say that they’re atrocious after they lost 21-6 to the Redskins last week, but Washington is one of the best teams in the NFL. Also, while Wilson is anemic, the defense is actually pretty decent. Limiting Daniels to just 21 points is no small feat.

New York’s quarterback situation will dictate where I go with my pick. If it’s Wilson again, the Giants may just quit because the players know there are better options. I think the Giants could be an F team with Wilson and a D team with either Winston or Dart, and if I’m right, Dallas will be the right side.

If, however, the Giants make the quarterback change, I’ll be on New York. Winston and Dart are clear upgrades over Wilson, and we’ll be getting nice value at +6. Check back later for updates!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t know if we have confirmation yet, but it sounds like Wilson will start again. There’s a chance Brian Daboll could lose the locker room because of this asinine decision. I’m going to switch my pick to the Cowboys, assuming New York is going with Wilson.

SATURDAY NOTES: We were wondering if Andrew Thomas would play. He will not. The Cowboys would be an easy play if Micah Parsons were still on the team. I still like them, as Marshawn Kneeland and Osa Odighizuwa should still get pressure on Russell Wilson. And speaking of Wilson, Brian Daboll may have lost the locker room by going with Wilson once again. I don’t understand the thought process at all. This spread sucks, but I still like Dallas a good amount. I’m going to bet three units on them.

PROFIT BOOST & NO-SWEAT BET: FanDuel is offering a profit boost and a no-sweat bet for Week 2. They’re listing the Cowboys at -4.5, so let’s take advantage of that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp money on the Cowboys early in the week, but some other sharp action has come in on the Giants at +6 and +5.5. The best line is -5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.

Computer Model: Cowboys -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Late action on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 72% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Cowboys have won 20 of the last 24 meetings.

Russell Wilson is 34-17 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Russell Wilson is 36-20 ATS as an underdog.

Cowboys are 25-16 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Dak Prescott is 38-31 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: We had no news about Matthew Stafford entering the game. There were no updates about his back. I complained about the horrible reporting of the Rams last week, and I’ll do it again. Jourdan Rodrigue, who “covers” the Rams for the Athletic, posted one tweet about the Rams on Friday, the day the final injury reports are released, and it was a generic quote from Sean McVay. The rest of her tweets were about other nonsense. She and the other Rams beat reporters are an absolute disgrace.

Stafford looked just fine against the Texans. The Rams scored only 14 points, but did so against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Titans certainly do not have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They have some big problems at cornerback that Stafford will be able to expose. Tennessee’s edge rush isn’t good either, so Stafford will have plenty of time in the pocket.

Stafford will be able to lean on Kyren Williams as well. The Titans allowed some significant gains to Denver’s running backs, and Williams is better than what the Broncos possess at the position.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Cam Ward’s stat line from Week 1 looks miserable, but he didn’t play that poorly. He was betrayed by his receivers and offensive line. His wideouts dropped so many passes that Ward’s dad expressed his frustration in the stands quite openly. And then there was the offensive line, which surrendered two sacks on one drive to take Tennessee out of field goal range for the go-ahead kick in the fourth quarter.

The offensive line will once again have a very difficult matchup. The Rams have a ferocious pass rush that hounded C.J. Stroud consistently. The Titans block better than the Texans, but it’s not a wide disparity. Jared Verse and company will flood the backfield and make things very difficult for Ward.

Ward won’t be able to depend on Tony Pollard’s runs either. The Rams figure to have a strong run defense this year, which is what we saw when they limited Nick Chubb in Week 1. Pollard is better than Chubb right now, but I wouldn’t expect much from him.

RECAP: There might be some casual box score viewers who were impressed by the Titans’ performance last week. They lost to the Broncos by only eight points in Ward’s first road game, after all. They even had a chance to take the lead when the Titans took over possession in the red zone, down 13-12, late in the fourth quarter.

However, this was a misleading result. The Broncos outgained the Titans, 317-133, and they averaged 2.1 more yards per play. Denver played sloppily with four turnovers. The Rams, who are much more careful with the football, will not give Tennessee nearly as many opportunities to keep this game close.

Speaking of the Rams, Stafford looked healthy against the Texans in the 14-9 victory, so I’m fairly comfortable betting them in this game. There’s always a chance that Stafford’s back acts up, but I think we’re safe this week.

I’m a fan of the Rams -5.5, if you couldn’t tell. I have this line priced at -8.5, so we’re getting a 10.55-percent edge with Los Angeles. This is my second-largest discrepancy this week after Bengals-Jaguars (prior to the move down to +3.5).

The only concern I have with the Rams is that there’s a chance they could look ahead to next week’s game against the Eagles. I’d be more convinced of this if they were playing at home, but Sean McVay usually prepares his teams well for these early starts in away games.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Shockingly, the Titans are getting a ton of public support in this game. I guess people were impressed that they kept the Denver game close even though the Broncos had a ton of unforced errors.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if the Titans weren’t behind the eight ball enough, they’re going to be down their top tackle (JC Latham) and run-stuffing nose tackle (T’Vondre Sweat). The Rams look like a great play this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been no sharp action to speak of in this game. The public hasn’t taken a stance either. The best line is -5.5 -108 at Bookmaker and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Rams could be looking ahead to playing the Eagles next week.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -5.5.

Computer Model: Rams -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 56% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Titans are 30-22 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Rams -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Sunny, 88 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: What a comeback by Josh Allen! Sure, the Bills got some help from Derrick Henry’s fumble, but Allen was amazing in the fourth quarter, justifying his MVP award that many criticized. You can purchase the sort of gear that makes Allen deniers cry in our merch store as well.

Allen won’t have as easy of a time passing in this game. The Jets have an excellent secondary and pass rush, which will give Allen some fits. Allen should consider using his legs more; he didn’t run nearly enough in the early stages of the Baltimore contest.

Speaking of running the ball, the Bills will need to establish James Cook in this matchup. While the Jets are strong against the pass, they’re also weak to the run. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell had success on the ground against them, so that obviously bodes well for Cook’s outlook.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: One of the biggest surprises from Week 1 was how well the Jets ran the ball. Pittsburgh is supposed to have a stout defense, but the team looked helpless when trying to tackle Breece Hall. It was reported that Hall would be splitting touches with Braelon Allen evenly, but that wasn’t the case. Hall looked incredible.

The Bills will have similar issues tackling Hall. We know this because we just watched Derrick Henry trample over their defense with ease. It was especially difficult to contain Henry because the Jets also had to worry about Lamar Jackson, but Justin Fields’ presence will pose similar issues.

Fields obviously isn’t nearly as good of a passer as Jackson. However, the Bills have multiple injuries at cornerback, so Fields could pick up where he left off last week with a better-than-expected passing performance.

RECAP: As with the Ravens, the Bills are staring an incredibly obvious sandwich situation. They just had an insane comeback against Baltimore. Now, after this game in which they’re favored by about a touchdown, they have to play Thursday night. Granted, that matchup is against the Dolphins, but it’s still a football game with just four days of preparation.

My inclination is siding with the Jets. I wish we were still getting +8, but sharp money pounded the Jets down to +6.5, so now there’s not nearly as much value.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Once again, we lost some major value with the spread dropping to +6.5, so this game doesn’t look appealing from a betting angle.

PLAYER PROPS: The Bills can’t stop mobile quarterbacks. Take a look at the carries and rushing yards for each mobile quarterback they’ve battled since the beginning of 2024:

Kyler Murray 5-57

Lamar Jackson 6-54

Drake Maye 6-30

Bo Nix 4-43

Lamar Jackson 6-39

Lamar Jackson 6-70

Note that no quarterback ran more than six times. Justin Fields scrambled 12 times in Week 1, so if he has a similar carry number in this game, he’ll exceed the rushing total with ease. The best number is over 43.5 rushing yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills have a high number of injuries. They’re down two defensive tackles, including Pro Bowler Ed Oliver. They could also be missing three cornerbacks, with Tre White and Taron Johnson practicing on a limited basis all week. The top cornerback, Christian Benford, is dealing with a groin issue, though he doesn’t have an injury designation. All of these injuries make the Jets look much more appealing, so if a bunch of these players are ruled inactive Sunday morning, I may place a small bet on the Jets.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Taron Johnson and Ed Oliver are both out for Buffalo, making the Jets look more appealing. This line is down to +5 or +5.5 in most sportsbooks, but you can still get +6.5 -115 at DraftKings, which is huge because six is such a key number. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Bills just won a 41-40 thriller and have a Thursday night game coming up.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -8.5.

Computer Model: Bills -10.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 52% (134,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bills have won 16 of the last 23 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -8.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 79 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Both of these offenses failed last week, but we might as well begin with the one we saw most recently. Chicago had a strong opening drive, but didn’t score a single offensive touchdown after that until garbage time. Chicago fans must have been disappointed with the result, but it was expected. Caleb Williams needs lots of positive coaching and isn’t quite there yet, plus Ben Johnson was coaching in his first game. He’ll learn from his mistakes like not onside kicking it when having just one timeout remaining.

The Bears have an easier matchup this week, so perhaps they’ll have more success on the scoreboard. The Lions have some injuries in the middle of their defense that Johnson should be able to exploit. The Packers just ran successfully on the Lions, so the Bears will be able to do the same with D’Andre Swift.

The Lions also have problems in their secondary, partly stemming from the change at defensive coordinator. Williams could exploit this weak area with his many weapons.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Speaking of weapons, the Lions have plenty of them, but could barely do anything against the Packers. A big part of the problem was Johnson’s absence. Two losses in the interior of the offensive line made the blocking much worse as well.

The Bears were able to limit the Vikings through three quarters, so perhaps they’ll be able to do the same thing to the Lions, who look like a shell of themselves without Johnson and Frank Ragnow. I don’t love Chicago’s pass rush, but it’s not a bad unit, so Jared Goff could be under siege again.

I’d say the Lions will have better luck running the ball than they did last week. We just saw Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones combine for nearly 100 rushing yards against Chicago, after all. The Bears were 22nd against the run in 2024, so this would have been a great matchup for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to exploit, but Detroit’s ground attack just isn’t the same this year.

RECAP: We’re getting a big overreaction on this spread. The Lions were -4.5 before Week 1, yet have moved up to -6 despite getting blown out at Green Bay. This is because of what transpired in one quarter of the Chicago-Minnesota game.

I like getting the value at +6. It’s also great having the coaching edge in this game. I faded Johnson last week because it was his first NFL game, but he now has the advantage because he possesses great knowledge of the Lions. He built their offense, after all. He has more insight on Goff’s weaknesses than anyone, so he’ll be able to relay that to his defensive coordinator.

The Bears seem like a strong side at +6. We’re getting nice line value, a huge overreaction, a fade of one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, and a big coaching edge. What’s holding me back from making this five units is that the Bears are on a short week, while my trust in Williams is still rather low.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money is coming in on the Lions. Even the sharps don’t recognize how overrated the Lions are! On Wednesday’s pick show, Andy gave a compelling case about why the one fewer day of rest isn’t significant for the Bears, and it’s because they are familiar with their opponent. You can watch the show here:

PLAYER PROPS: Rome Odunze had way more targets than D.J. Moore in the final preseason game. He had more targets than Moore in Week 1. One is an accident, two is a trend, and yet D.J. Moore’s receptions number is higher than Odunze’s. I think Odunze is now the No. 1 receiver in Chicago, so I’m going to bet the over receptions. The vig sucks, so this will be just half a unit. The best number is over 3.5 catches -157 at BetRivers.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to drop my unit count to one because of how much Green Bay dominated Washington. This makes the Lions look better, though I’m still down on them. Something in Chicago’s favor, however, is that Taylor Decker may not play after missing practice all week. The Lions already had issues with their offensive line because of Frank Ragnow’s retirement and Kevin Zeitler’s departure in free agency.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both the Bears and Lions had surprise actives. For the Bears, who get Jaylon Johnson back, they’ll also have Grady Jarrett available. Jarrett was doubtful, but he will play. For the Lions, Taylor Decker will play despite being doubtful all week. The sharps have been on the Lions at -6 and below, but not at -6.5. The best number is +6.5 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bears.

A revenge game for Ben Johnson, while the Lions take on the Ravens on Monday Night Football next week.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -4.5.

Computer Model: Lions -5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Sharp money on Detroit.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 52% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Lions have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: Lions -4.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: Here’s a video of a smoking-hot girl playing Resident Evil. I kid you not:

She tends to get frazzled while under pressure, but I enjoyed this video and the others she has on her channel. I know I posted this last year, but I’ve watched a ton of her videos and wanted to shout her out again.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers had an angry press conference where he chided the Jets for not believing in him. I couldn’t blame him for being pissed, as last year was going to be an obvious down season for him because he was coming off a torn Achilles. It makes sense that Rodgers would rebound in 2025.

Rodgers, however, didn’t have an amazing game when looking at the metrics. He didn’t complete passes with a high number of air yards, and he was also lucky to get some bounces, like with the ridiculous DK Metcalf ricochet. Rodgers will need similar luck in this game because the Seahawks have a stellar defense that just did a great job of limiting the Christian McCaffrey-led 49ers.

It won’t help Rodgers that billionaire Arthur Smith won’t be able to utilize his running backs effectively. The Seahawks have the personnel to possess a stout run defense, so they should be able to limit Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I would have thought that the Steelers would maintain the personnel to stuff the run as well, but that certainly is not the case. The Jets trampled Pittsburgh with ease in the opener.

This definitely does not bode well for Pittsburgh this week because the Seahawks have a strong rushing attack, which will be enhanced by Grey Zabel and Robbie Ouzts this year. Zach Charbonnet will help, too. Charbonnet is better than Kenneth Walker, so credit new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak for recognizing this and going with the superior option, which billionaire Arthur Smith is incapable of doing.

Charbonnet’s great running will be required for Sam Darnold not to have a meltdown. While the Steelers can’t stop the run, they should be able to generate pressure against a poor pass-blocking offensive line. For that reason, I don’t like Seattle’s chances with Darnold if the team falls behind early.

RECAP: The Steelers won on the road against the Jets, but they really should’ve lost. They got all the bounces, from the lost fumble on the kick return to the ball landing on Metcalf’s lap while he was on the ground. Pittsburgh was outgained, 394-271, because it couldn’t stop the Jets’ running game.

Enter the Seahawks, who have a strong rushing attack as well. Unless Mike Tomlin can make some serious adjustments, Seattle will match up well against Pittsburgh.

Unfortunately, the Seahawks don’t seem overly appealing either. I have no faith in Darnold without Kevin O’Connell or Justin Jefferson, especially behind a putrid pass-blocking offenive line.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still have zero interest in this game. Unless there are some shocking injuries, I don’t plan to bet on either side.

NO PLAYER PROPS: Just wanted to express my frustration. The Seahawks are another team that can’t stop tight ends at all – as evidenced by Jake Tonge’s performance – but the Steelers have a million tight ends, so I don’t know whom to pick.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams will be missing key defensive backs – DeShon Elliott for the safety, DeVon Witherspoon for the Seahawks – so I don’t see a major edge for either team. Unless something crazy happens, I won’t be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps did nothing with this game all week, but they jumped on the Steelers on Sunday morning, driving the line up to -3.5. The best line is +3.5 -115 at many sportsbooks, including FanDuel and DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -2.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Money on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 62% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Aaron Rodgers is 134-99 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Steelers -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 80 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The hits just keep on coming. It’s a new season, and yet the 49ers are once again dropping like flies. Brock Purdy is expected to miss this game, as is Jauan Jennings. George Kittle, meanwhile, will be out much longer in the wake of being placed on injured reserve.

The 49ers will be going with Mac Jones, assuming that Purdy will be sidelined. Jones has plenty of experience and was a favorite draft prospect of Kyle Shanahan’s a few years ago. He also has strong talent around him, despite the Kittle, Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk injuries. Ricky Pearsall looked incredible in Week 1, while Christian McCaffrey was at full strength despite coming into the game with a calf injury. The offensive line still has some big names as well, though Trent Williams struggled. Williams has an easier matchup in this game, so perhaps he’ll rebound.

Speaking of easy matchups, the 49ers possess a ton of them in this game because the Saints have an awful defense. New Orleans couldn’t stop Trey Benson and James Conner last week, so how are they going to deal with McCaffrey? Meanwhile, their poor pass rush will give Jones all the time in the world to shred a horrible secondary. Pearsall should have a monster game.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Jones will also be helped by the defense. The stop unit is at least still intact – for now – so containing the Saints shouldn’t be difficult at all.

The primary issue with the Saints on this side of the ball is that they don’t have a viable NFL quarterback. I don’t even know if Spencer Rattler would be a starter in the CFL. He wasn’t horrible against Arizona, but didn’t exactly battle a tough defense. This will be a tougher matchup for him.

The offensive line is another problem. Erik McCoy is great, but the Saints otherwise have inexperienced and pedestrian players starting up front. Nick Bosa will have a field day generating pressure on Rattler, who could commit some turnovers as a result.

RECAP: This game has one of my favorite angles, which is betting backup quarterbacks on good teams when battling non-elite defenses. This has worked extremely well for us in the past, and I see no reason not to utilize it this week. The 49ers, despite the injuries, are still a good team. And we know that the Saints don’t have an elite defense.

While betting the 49ers is very appealing for that reason, fading the Saints is equally appetizing because of Rattler. Fading horrible quarterbacks on bad teams is another angle that has been tremendous over the years.

With two great angles colliding, I see no reason why we can’t bet the 49ers for the maximum amount. We’re even getting a discount on the line, which has dropped through two key numbers because of the Purdy news. And, if that wasn’t enough, we get to fade the public, which is betting New Orleans for some reason!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is -3? -3!!??!?! How!?!??!?!!? I know Mac Jones is starting, but still… -3!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!

LOCKED IN: I’m worried that this line will move to -3.5. It has done so at some sportsbooks, so I’m going to lock in -3 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers won’t have Brock Purdy or George Kittle, and it sounds like Jauan Jennings will be out, too. Trent Williams is questionable, but it sounds like he’s going to play. The Saints, however, have their own injuries. Julian Blackmon, one of the few talented players on the defense, will be sidelined. Right tackle Taliese Fuaga’s status is in question as well.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The 49ers don’t often get positive injury news, but Trent Williams will play. The sharps shockingly haven’t touched this game. I already locked this in at -3 -110, which was a huge mistake because -3 -102 is available at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The 49ers will be playing hard for their backup quarterback.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -7.

Computer Model: 49ers -5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

The public is backing the Saints for some reason.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 66% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: 49ers -7.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.