2025 NFL Picks – Week 2: Chargers at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Las Vegas, otherwise known as Sin City, for tonight’s game between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oakland Raiders! Guys, I’m joining you by Zoom call because Mother wouldn’t let me go to Sin City because she thought I would be corrupted. It’s probably for the best because I’d probably spent all of my allowance at Circus Circus trying to win Jalen Hurts and Nick Foles bobblehead dolls out of the crane machines. You guys might think I’m a jack of all trades, master of everything, but I can’t win at those darn crane games. I even asked Mother to ask the manager to rig it for me, and I still couldn’t win!

Emmitt: Thanks, Jack. I thoughted your name Frank from last week game, but now you say you Jack. But Jack, I real sorry you can’t not joined us in Sim City. I already betted all of my money on the coin flip for the football game. I bet edge every time and soonder or later, the coin gonna land on edge, and I gonna have the last laughed.

Reilly: Emmitt, let’s not begin with this again. My name is not Frank, or Jack. My name is Kevin Reilly. If you don’t start calling me by my real name, I’m going to tell on you to Mother, and then you won’t get macaroni and cheese when you visit us for dinner.

Tollefson: Reilly, relax, don’t threaten others by taking your mom’s macaroni and cheese away from them. And like I said last week, you should embrace a new name. Kevin Reilly can’t talk to women. Jack Reilly is a smooth and slick individual with lots of slave women in his cellar who cook and clean naked for him. What a stud. I’d be jealous if I didn’t live the life myself!

Reilly: Tolly, it’s not that I can’t talk to women. I totally can. It’s just that Mother won’t let me. But maybe, just maybe, if I can fool Mother into thinking I’m Jack Reilly, I can. Let’s try. Hey Clarissa Thomas baby, I’m Jack Reilly, I’m so smooth, will you give us a groovy sideline report, babe?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Jack, wow, I’m blushing right now. I have the sudden urge to cook and clean naked for you now. I don’t even need to be tied up for chloroformed like that Tolly guy’s ladies. I don’t even know what my report was because I’m so flustered.

Tollefson: What the f**k!? Cooking and cleaning with no cellar torture? You, sir, are a god!

Reilly: I told you, Tolly. Jack Reilly is the man of the ladies. Let’s try this again. Hey, baby lady who taught me what Asians were last week, how about we swing by the soda shop, and I buy you a bowl of macaroni and cheese?

Mina Kimes: See, this is what I was talking about last week. I need to work so hard to overcome stereotypes. I am a great football analyst, and yet all people see is that I am an Asian woman. People need to recognize how great I am at football analysis. For example, I’ll be the only one talking about this game, and I’m excited for it. Here’s a cool little tidbit for you: Not only is Geno Smith a top-10 NFL quarterback, he’s also a top-one NFL quarterback. No one is better at football than Geno Smith. This is just but a taste of my great football knowledge that I can feature on any football telecast, but all people see is short Asian lady, and I’m so much more than that.

Reilly: Who the f**k is Geno Smith? And yes, I can curse because I’m Jack Reilly instead of Kevin Reilly. Take that, Mother! I mean, woman I don’t know who’s probably the mother of some super cool guy with a great Nick Foles bobblehead collection. We have one more lady of the night here on the show, and I say that because it’s night time, and the ladies are here. Who are you babe, and why do you look so good?

Sarah Spain: WHY ARE YOU OPPRESSING MEEEEE REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!

Reilly: Whoa, I don’t know who will ever want to be involved with that mess. Not even the cool Jack Reilly can get her number. I guess everyone has their limits. Except New Daddy, of course, because he landed Mother!

Jay Cutler: Oh yeah, I’m real winner to get a stepson who is older than me and yet still lives in his mom’s house and pretends to be other people.

Reilly: New Daddy, you should be thankful that I live with you so we can hang out all the time!

Charles Davis: Kevin, let’s talk about father-son hangouts, Kevin. How about going to a ball game, Kevin. Then there’s playing catch, Kevin. What do you think about going to ice cream, Kevin? Let’s chat about taking your little boy to the playground, Kevin. Let’s hope Kevin stays away from playgrounds now, Kevin. How about-

Reilly: Charles Davis, first of all, my name is Jack! And second, how can I go to the playground with my dad if you say I shouldn’t be allowed near playgrounds, huh? Didn’t think about that one, did you, idiot!? We’ll be back after this!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers had an impressive victory in Brazil over the Chiefs. They moved the chains with ease for most of the evening, with Justin Herbert shredding an inept Kansas City defense.

Herbert should continue his hot streak in this game. He has more weapons at his disposal this year with Keenan Allen back on the roster and Quentin Johnston perhaps finally coming into his own. The Raiders have a great pass rush, but they also lack talent in their secondary. Herbert should be able to exploit those weaknesses, while Joe Alt and the rest of the offensive line figure to keep him clean. Omarion Hampton, meanwhile, should have a slightly better game than what he showed us in Brazil.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Chargers have a key injury that will not be recognized by the public. That would be to Denzel Perryman. Many casual bettors may have heard of him, but don’t know the impact that Perryman provides. Whenever Perryman has been out of the lineup, his teams have been far worse against the run.

Perryman is week to week with a high-ankle sprain. This will obviously benefit Ashton Jeanty, who didn’t have the best debut. However, Jeanty will have much more running room in this contest, thanks to Perryman’s absence.

Jeanty’s tough running will make things easier for Geno Smith, who performed well in his Raiders debut last week. There’s a slight shot Smith may not have Brock Bowers, who got banged up at the end of the victory over the Patriots, but he’s listed as day to day, so chances are that he’ll be on the field. Smith has plenty of weapons at his disposal, so he should have some success moving the chains.

RECAP: The Chargers really surprised me in their Brazil matchup against the Chiefs. Not only did they win a big game for the first time in four years; they also were very aggressive in doing so, constantly throwing the ball at the end as opposed to going into a conservative, protective shell.

I liked seeing this from the Chargers, and it makes me think that they can really go places this year. They should also be able to expose the weaknesses of the Raiders, all while protecting Herbert well.

I’m not in love with the Chargers this week because they’re in such a weird spot as a road favorite following a big victory as an underdog, but I would take them in an office pool. It should be noted that the line moving from -3 to -3.5, while unappealing because three is such a key number, is a sign of strength for the Chargers because the books aren’t afraid of sharp money coming in on the Raiders +3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think I’d have some betting interest in the Chargers at -3 because they could be a special team this year. However, -3.5 is a much tougher ask because three is the primary key number in the NFL.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.

Computer Model: Chargers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 58% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Raiders are 38-57 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.