2025 NFL Picks – Week 2: Jaguars at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions +2.5

Dolphins +1.5

Vikings -1.5

Chiefs -3

Ravens +1

The public went 1-4 this past week, with only the Vikings prevailing.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Vikings -5

Steelers -2.5

Chiefs +1

Saints +4.5

Titans +5.5

Three underdogs is very odd, but that’s what the public is betting now.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It was no surprise to see the Bengals struggle in Cleveland last week. I’m confident I had Joe Burrow ranked lower in Week 1 fantasy football rankings than anyone in the industry, and that was because he always struggles in Cleveland. There was a sequence in which Burrow was sacked three times during a three-and-out, which was a part of the Bengals’ meager 141-yard outing.

Things will be much easier for the Bengals in this game. The Jaguars seem like they’re going to be weak to the run again, so Cincinnati will be able to get into short-yardage opportunities via Chase Brown runs.

One thing the Jaguars have going for them on this side of the ball is their pass rush. This will create some problems for the Bengals, whose already-poor offensive line lost a key blocker last week as a result of Lucas Patrick suffering an injury.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Of course, Cincinnati’s defense will be the reason for the team’s downfall. The Browns scored just 16 points last week, but only because two drops turned into interceptions and the kicker missed four points.

The Jaguars won’t make the same mistakes. Not only do they have a great kicker; they also possess tons of weapons with whom the Bengals will have severe issues. Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter will create severe headaches for Cincinnati’s poor secondary, while Travis Etienne should once again have a great game against a Cincinnati front that had trouble containing Dylan Sampson last week.

The one hope the Bengals have is putting lots of pressure on Trevor Lawrence. Trey Hendrickson looked great in Week 1, and Jacksonville’s tackle situation isn’t amazing, so Lawrence will feel some heat.

RECAP: I disagreed with this opening spread more than any other in Week 2. The Bengals were by 5.5, but I have this line calculated at -2. This line has since plummeted to -3.5, thanks to severe sharp action on Jacksonville.

The Bengals are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, if not the most overrated team. Their defense is awful, while their offensive line is extremely shaky. It was telling that Cincinnati accumulated just 141 net yards of offense, most of which occurred on the opening drive. The Bengals did next to nothing the rest of the game because they couldn’t block. So, you’re telling me that a team that can’t stop anything or block anyone should be favored by more than a field goal over a competent opponent? Get the heck out of here.

As if the Jaguars didn’t look appealing enough, the Bengals are also notoriously slow starters. They’re now 2-9 straight up in Weeks 1-2 in the Burrow era. Their only wins have come against the Browns, who outgained them by about 200 yards, and the Vikings in 2021, who would’ve won if Dalvin Cook didn’t fumble the ball over midfield in overtime.

We faded the Bengals successfully last week for a huge play, and we’re going to do the same thing until the sportsbooks price them correctly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps took the Jaguars down from +5.5 to +3.5, but haven’t touched them at +3.5. That doesn’t mean that they eventually won’t. I might consider locking in Jacksonville once we have our final injury report.

PLAYER PROPS: Cincinnati is another team that can’t defend tight ends. There were not one, but two tight ends who went over this posted receiving yards total in Week 1 against them. Brenton Strange is heavily utilized, and Liam Coen said that Travis Hunter will focus more on defense in this game. The best number is over 31.5 receiving yards -113 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -5.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 53% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 66-112 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Joe Burrow is 44-23 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (5-6 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 2-9 SU in Weeks 1-2

Opening Line: Bengals -5.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .