2025 NFL Picks – Week 2: Buccaneers at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: The demise of Houston’s offensive line was accurately portrayed. It’s unclear why, but the Texans dealt Laremy Tunsil this offseason and failed to find much-needed upgrades in the interior. They were graded as having the worst offensive line in the NFL, which looked accurate in the opener versus the Rams. C.J. Stroud didn’t have a chance.

Fortunately for Stroud, his offensive line has a much easier matchup in this game. The Buccaneers don’t bring nearly as much heat as the Rams, so Stroud will have more time in the pocket. The Buccaneers have problems covering receivers and tight ends, so Nico Collins also figures to rebound, while Dalton Schultz could have one of his better performances of the year.

One thing the Texans won’t be able to do effectively will be running the ball. The Buccaneers clamp down on the run extremely well. They severely limited Bijan Robinson on the ground, so they shouldn’t have a problem keeping Nick Chubb from gaining much.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: While Stroud will have more time in the pocket, the same won’t be said of Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers still won’t have Tristan Wirfs in this game, and it’ll actually be felt against the Texans, who have some serious talent on the defensive line.

Mayfield won’t have much time to throw, but when he does, he might have some luck locating his two talented receivers. The Texans lost Derek Stingley in last week’s loss, so if he can’t return, Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka will have an easier time getting open.

The Buccaneers won’t be able to run very much either. Bucky Irving is very talented, but Houston’s stalwart front should be able to win in the trenches, especially with Wirfs still sidelined.

RECAP: I’m no fan of the Texans this year. They have an atrocious offensive line which was ranked 32nd according to Pro Football Focus. I’d put the Dolphins behind them, but the Texans’ blocking unit is certainly in the bottom five. Stroud stood no chance against the Rams last week.

However, the Buccaneers also have their flaws. Their defense isn’t very good, while their offensive line took a hit with Wirfs sidelined. Also, Tampa Bay’s pass rush doesn’t strike me as a unit that can take advantage of Houston’s poor blocking.

I’m leaning toward the Texans in this game, but that’s all I have. There’s no line value in this game – I made the spread exactly -1.5, which is what the real line is – and there are no other angles I see.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to change this unit count to two. The best unit in this game is the Houston defense, and we get to fade an NFC South team from outside the division.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.5.

Computer Model: Texans -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 54% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 143-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Texans -1.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.