2025 NFL Picks – Week 2: Redskins at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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Week 1 Analysis: The good news is that we won our September NFL Pick of the Month with the Browns covering against the Bengals. The bad news was that we whiffed on our three 4-5 unit picks. And we had a fourth, but I dropped the unit count on Arizona when Kyler Murray was put on the injury report Sunday morning with an illness. Had we gotten one of our 4-5 unit picks correct, we would have won money in Week 1.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Chiefs, 4 units (loss): It’s hard not to blame this one on injury. Kansas City’s offensive game plan was ruined when Xavier Worthy got hurt on the first drive. This was 24 hours after Jalen Carter was ejected (we bet the Eagles for two units.)

Steelers, 5 units (loss): I’m shocked by how bad Pittsburgh’s defense was. The Steelers still had a chance to cover, but they couldn’t stop the Jets at any point.

Giants, 4 units (loss): Russell Wilson sucks. I was not shocked by that, but I thought the Giants would at least score some points. This was a dumb pick.

Browns, 8 units (win): The Browns should have won this game outright. They outgained the Bengals by almost 200 yards!

Packers, 3 units (win): I wish all games were this easy.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers didn’t have any issues moving the chains in their season opener against the Lions. They routinely marched down the field against a defense that was supposed to be better with the return of Aidan Hutchinson and other players who were injured last year.

The Packers ran the ball very well against the Lions, but they may not have as much success in this contest. The Redskins are stout against ground attacks, so it wasn’t a surprise that they bottled up Tyrone Tracy very effectively. Josh Jacobs is a better back, but they should be able to limit him fairly well.

It’ll be tougher for “No Cookie” Jordan Love to operate without Jacobs ripping off significant yardage on many of his carries. The Redskins improved their pass rush and secondary since last year’s trade deadline, and Matthew Golden isn’t fully involved in the offense yet, so Washington could limit Green Bay.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Detroit didn’t have Ben Johnson last week, but they still returned all of their key players, save for two of their interior linemen. Despite Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery and Jared Goff being on the field, Detroit could barely move the ball. Green Bay’s defense, enhanced by Micah Parsons, completely dismantled Detroit’s offense.

I have more faith in the Redskins moving the ball. They didn’t undergo a coordinator change, nor did they lose multiple offensive linemen this offseason. In fact, they obtained Laremy Tunsil, who will be absolutely enormous in this matchup. Tunsil is one of the few left tackles who can slow down Parsons, which is obviously huge for Jayden Daniels.

It’s also worth noting that Daniels’ athleticism will come up big in this contest. Goff is a statue in the pocket, but Daniels can escape the pass rush and use his legs to beat the opposition. This came up last week against the Giants’ talented pass rush, and Daniels bailed his team out on occasion.

RECAP: Week 2 is often known as Overreaction Week because people form wild opinions based on what transpired in one week of football. Need I remind you that last year, the Patriots beat the Bengals, or that the Saints won 47-10, or that the Redskins were blown out in Tampa Bay?

There doesn’t seem like there is as much overreaction this year as there has been in the past, but the Packers certainly qualify. They were absolutely dominant against the Lions, causing the line to jump from -2.5 to -3.5. However, people still don’t seem to realize how much regression there is in store for Detroit. I imagine some bettors believe that the Packers have a good chance of dismantling the Redskins, completely dismissing the fact that Washington is a better team than Detroit.

With that in mind, I like the Redskins. I believe we’re getting some great value on this spread, which I personally made +1.5. Securing three is key here, given that it’s the primary key number in the NFL. I was considering Washington as a two-unit wager at +3, but the line has moved to +3.5. I realize that this is a sign of strength for the Packers, and that the sharps are responsible for this, but I don’t believe the sharps are on the right side of this game.

Our Week 2 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here from me, though it’s not great to be on the same side as a publicly backed underdog. I discussed some props I like in this video:

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to bet Zach Ertz over receiving yards. Sam LaPorta just had a big game, thanks to Green Bay’s fierce pass rush forcing the opposing quarterback to target lower ADOT (average depth of target) players. Ertz has eclipsed this posted total in 10 of his 17 games last year. The best number is over 32.5 receiving yards -112 at FanDuel.

DraftKings has a 25-percent boost for an NFL same-game parlay. We’re going to bet Ertz over 33.5 receiving yards, Matthew Golden under 35.5 receiving yards, Austin Ekler 3+ receptions, and Redskins +3.5. This $15 parlay pays $159.45. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SPORTSBOOK PROMOS: BetMGM has a no-sweat bet for this game up to $20. DraftKings has a no-sweat bet up to $25. FanDuel has a 50-percent profit boost for this game. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

LOCKED IN: The sharps have jumped on the Redskins, knocking this line down to +3 in most places. DraftKings still has +3.5 -118 available, so we’ll be betting that right now before that disappears. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned this afternoon, the sharps bet the Redskins at +3.5, perhaps because the Packers will be missing two starting offensive linemen: Aaron Banks and Zach Tom. The sharps drove the line down to +3 at almost every sportsbook. DraftKings, however, still has +3.5 -118 available.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -2.5.

Computer Model: Packers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 52% (296,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Matt LaFleur is 59-41 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 61 degrees. Light wind.