2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Eagles at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles sorely missed A.J. Brown on Monday night. Sure, they were a Saquon Barkley dropped pass away from beating the Falcons, but they never would have been in that position if Brown were on the field. Brown is expected to miss a couple more weeks, which is far from ideal.

Philadelphia’s diminished receiving corps doesn’t have the best matchup in this game. Kool-Aid McKinstry has performed well for a rookie, while Marshon Lattimore could be back from injury. The Saints have also generated good pressure on opposing quarterbacks, registering eight sacks through two weeks. Jalen Hurts has a great offensive line in front of him, but it’s not as elite as it once was, so the Saints could get to him on occasion.

The stats say it’ll be difficult for the Eagles to establish the run as well. The Saints are second versus ground attacks thus far in 2024, but it’s worth noting that they’ve gone against Chuba Hubbard/Miles Sanders and Ezekiel Elliott/Rico Dowdle, so it’s not like they’ve faced any sort of legitimate competition in that regard.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Philadelphia’s defense was expected to be highly improved this season, thanks to numerous additions and the Vic Fangio hire. That has not been the case through two games, as the Eagles haven’t generated much pressure on the quarterback and they haven’t stopped the run well at all. Bryce Huff and Jalen Carter have been massive disappointments.

It’s not a good time for the Eagles to be porous versus the run because Alvin Kamara is the hottest running back in football at the moment. Kamara scored four times last week and should be in line for plenty of long gains in this contest if Philadelphia doesn’t straighten out its defensive situation, which could be difficult on a short week.

Thanks to the lacking pressure – Philadelphia has only three sacks through two games – the secondary has suffered, allowing plenty of big plays. This obviously includes Kirk Cousins’ great final drive. The Eagles should have success here because of the holes on the Saints’ offensive line, but New Orleans has inexplicably blocked very well through two weeks. If that continues to be the case, the Eagles won’t stand a chance of defending Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.

RECAP: I have to say that the line value on this game is amazing. The Eagles were -3.5 on the advance spread, yet they’re 2.5-point underdogs now, just based on one week’s worth of games. A swing of six points is way too much of an overreaction, so Philadelphia seems very tempting.

I think I will be passing on the game, however, for two reasons. First, I’ve been dead wrong on the Saints twice so far, so I need to step back and just observe them to see if they can sustain this level of success. And second, Nick Sirianni has an abysmal track record after Monday Night Football. It’s not a huge sample size, but he’s 1-5 against the spread on the short week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A.J. Brown missed Wednesday’s practice. It would be surprising if he were able to play. The Saints, meanwhile, could be getting Marshon Lattimore back after a limited session on Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: A.J. Brown is out, while Chauncey Gardner-Johnson missed practice Thursday and Friday, so he’s not looking good for this game. On the bright side for Philadelphia, Devin White will be on the field for the first time. I’m still torn on this game. I love the line value with the Eagles, but I worry about their defense being challenged with fixing their problems on a short week.

PLAYER PROP: I like DeVonta Smith over 70.5 receiving yards. Going back to last year, slot receivers have destroyed the Saints. Adam Thielen had 49 yards in Week 1 despite being old and decrepit. CeeDee Lamb had a huge performance last week. Smith, who is playing in the slot this year, should have a massive performance. The best number is over 70.5 receiving yards -117 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So many smart people I know like the Eagles this week, but I can’t pull the trigger. Philadelphia will be down Devin White in addition to A.J. Brown. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson will play, but it’s doubtful that he’s 100 percent. The sharps bet the Eagles at +3 earlier in the week, but they haven’t touched them at +2.5. You can get a viable +3 at DraftKings for -123 vig, which is worth it. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles are a good team looking to bounce back off a loss, while the Saints just had a blowout victory.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.5.

Computer Model: Saints -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 56% (144,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Nick Sirianni is 1-5 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.