2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: 49ers at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: If everyone on this side of the ball is hurt for the Rams, does it even count as an offense? They’ve been crushed by injuries, losing both of their receivers and several interior offensive linemen. Even Matthew Stafford was limping around in the second half of the loss to Arizona.

Stafford being hobbled at all would be the cherry on top of this injury disaster. He relies so much on Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and now both will be sidelined for an extended period of time. All Stafford has left are Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, and promising rookie Jordan Whittington. Stafford can at least be protected well on the edge, as Alaric Jackson will be back from suspension. Still, this is a matchup Nick Bosa will win.

Stafford can hope to lean on Kyren Williams, but the run blocking simply won’t be there. As mentioned, multiple interior offensive linemen are sidelined, so it’ll be difficult for Williams to find any rushing room.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The injuries have extended to this side of the ball as well. The Rams just lost top defensive back John Johnson, which is crushing because they were already missing several cornerbacks. It’s fortunate for the Rams that Deebo Samuel is sidelined, but they’re still going to have a tough time defending Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings.

Despite the secondary issues, the worst part of this Rams defense is the middle of the field. The Rams have some of the worst linebacker play in the NFL, which is a nightmare for this matchup because the 49ers love attacking the middle of the field more than anything. Jordan Mason and George Kittle both figure to thrive.

The Rams can only hope that their pass rush can come through with some lots of sacks and pressures. This is the one remaining strength of the Rams defense, but it’s not like Brock Purdy is protected poorly.

RECAP: The Rams may have had a chance if they were completely healthy. They’re missing so many players, however. Their top two receivers, the interior of their offensive line, and their entire secondary has been completely ravaged by injury.

Even without the injuries, the Rams were a bit behind the eight ball. They’ve been dominated by the 49ers in recent years, while San Francisco will be focused after losing to the Vikings last week. Plus, Stafford was limping around during the second half of last week’s game, so there’s a chance that he’s not 100 percent.

This spread may seem too high, but I don’t think it’s high enough. Given the injuries and the matchup domination, it could be argued that this line should be in the double digits.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Cooper Kupp was not placed on injured reserve, but he didn’t practice Wednesday. It would be shocking if he played. Meanwhile, Talanoa Hufanga will be back after practicing fully on Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers looked so great, but there are way too many injuries to bet them on this high line. George Kittle and Deebo Samuel will be sidelined in addition to Christian McCaffrey. Nick Bosa was limited on Thursday and Friday. Charvarius Ward is iffy to play. The Rams are in rough shape as well, but given all of San Francisco’s injuries, I can’t make a wager on either side.

PLAYER PROP: I like Brandon Aiyuk over 72.5 receiving yards. With Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle out for the 49ers, all the production will funnel to Brandon Aiyuk, who will look to pick up where Marvin Harrison Jr. left off against the Rams’ injury-ravaged secondary last week. The best number is over 72.5 -115 at BetMGM.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Nick Bosa will play, but we’ll see about Charvarius Ward. It’s a shame that the 49ers are so banged up because I’d like them for a wager otherwise.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nick Bosa and Charvarius Ward will play, but that didn’t stop the sharps from hammering the Rams at anything above +6. The best line is +6 -110 at many sportsbook, including Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -4.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -8.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Easy money, apparently.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 77% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 27 of the last 37 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie and a 2023 game where both teams sat starters.

Brock Purdy is 20-5 SU, 14-11 ATS.

Kyle Shanahan is 10-4 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: 49ers -4.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.