2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Jaguars at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills had some major question marks on offense heading into the season, but so far, so good for them. They’ve scored into the 30s in both games, thanks to the brilliance of Josh Allen and James Cook. Who needs receiver chemistry when you have those two making huge plays?

Allen projects very well as a runner once again, but Cook may not have the same level of success on the ground. The Jaguars have been excellent against the run, holding De’Von Achane in check as a runner back in Week 1. It should be noted, however, that Achane picked up chunks of yardage as a receiver out of the backfield in that matchup.

The Jaguars are weakest against aerial attacks, thanks in part to Tyson Campbell being sidelined. This is where Allen’s chemistry with his receivers comes into play. If Allen were comfortable throwing to his new receiving corps, he could really attack Jacksonville, but it’s unclear if he’ll be able to do that this early into the season.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence has not developed under Doug Pederson, so it’s time for the Jaguars to evaluate their head-coaching situation. Lawrence missed a number of throws and showed poor pocket awareness in the loss to the Browns.

Lawrence was under heavy pressure in that game, and that will once again be the case in Buffalo. Von Miller is finally healthy after dealing with his torn ACL, so he and Gregory Rousseau will collapse the pocket and make Lawrence very uncomfortable once again.

The Jaguars can counter this pressure by getting Travis Etienne heavily involved. Despite the loss, the Dolphins did a great job of attacking the middle of Buffalo’s defense with Achane. The Bills are down two linebackers and have horrid safety play, so Jacksonville should get a great performance out of its dynamic running back.

RECAP: The Bills are coming off a statement victory against the Dolphins. They looked great in Miami, slaughtering their rival by three touchdowns. However, it’s likely that this was more on Miami being in rough shape. Buffalo is still a team in flux in regard to Allen developing chemistry with his receivers and the defense overcoming injuries. I’m not convinced that they’re as good as last week’s score says they are. At least not right now.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are desperate. This is a must-win game for them, or they’ll fall to 0-3. The motivational angle certainly favors them, especially when considering that the Bills are coming off their blowout win versus Miami and have to prepare for a battle against the Ravens next week.

With the Bills still developing chemistry and figuring out their defense, I like the Jaguars with the points. The advance line on this game was Jacksonville +3.5, so it’s nice to be getting some value with the Jaguars.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are no practice reports quite yet, but there is sharp money on the Jaguars, who will be desperate. The Bills, meanwhile, are overrated following their blowout victory versus Miami.

SATURDAY NOTES: Outside of Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson, there aren’t any big names on the injury report.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still like the Jaguars with their backs against the wall. I hope we can find a +6, but I have my doubts.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Thus far, the sharps are on the Jaguars, while the public is on the Bills. I’m still not seeing a viable +6, but I’ll keep looking.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to start with Josh Allen under rushing yards. People love to bet on scrambling quarterbacks, but Allen doesn’t like to run very much at the beginning of the season, and there won’t be much pressure for him to do so at 2-0. Plus, the Jaguars held him to 14 rushing yards in last year’s victory. The best number is under 32.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

I like the Khalil Shakir under 46.5 receiving yards. It’s a good matchup for Shakir, who led the Bills in receiving last week. However, Shakir played just half the snaps. The best number is under 46.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Conversely, I think James Cook goes over on receiving yards. Cook is used heavily in the passing game because of the issues Buffalo has at receiver. The best number is over 18.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

And finally, I also like Travis Etienne’s over receiving yards. The Bills are missing two linebackers, so they’ll have problems containing Etienne as a receiver. The best number is 20.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

I’m going to parlay all four together. This $25 parlay pays $252.08 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for a +6 line. The sharps have aggressively bet the Jaguars down to +4 everywhere. The best line is +4 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The Bills are coming off a big divisional win on national TV, while the Jaguars will be desperate to avoid 0-3.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.5.

Computer Model: Bills -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Tons of money on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 74% (255,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.