2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Ravens at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Anyone surprised by the Ravens’ loss to the Raiders wasn’t paying attention to what happened to them in the offseason. They lost three offensive linemen and didn’t properly replace the departures. They’ve struggled to block through two weeks, and it showed mostly when Lamar Jackson took a huge sack in the fourth quarter this past Sunday.

Jackson will once again be pressured rather heavily. The Cowboys have the personnel to generate lots of heat on opposing quarterbacks, though we didn’t exactly see that against the Saints. Still, this looks to be a great matchup for Dallas.

All hope isn’t lost for the Ravens, however. The Cowboys are horrendous at stopping the run, so Derrick Henry could have one of his better performances this year. Henry is washed up, but he’ll have some success against Dallas, picking up where Alvin Kamara left off last week.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Ravens aren’t the only team in this matchup that has offensive line concerns. Only one blocker (Tyler Smith) is performing on a high level for the Cowboys, who sorely miss Tyron Smith. Rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton has been a human turnstile thus far, while veteran guard Zack Martin, who isn’t as good as he used to be, got banged up in last week’s game.

The Ravens’ defense isn’t quite what it once was, but it can still generate a great deal of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Baltimore has nine sacks through two games, and it’ll add to that number once it’s done with Dak Prescott, who won’t be able to lean on his poor rushing attack.

While Prescott will struggle with pressure, he’ll be able to deliver some strikes to CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, who is expected back this week. The Ravens have some major problems at cornerback and linebacker, so Lamb and Ferguson should be able to duplicate the performances that Davante Adams and Brock Bowers enjoyed last week.

RECAP: As the Dan Campbell Burner Twitter account said to me yesterday, “Ravens vs. Cowboys next week, battle of the overrated.” It’s true. I’ve been touting the Ravens and Cowboys as two of the overrated teams on my list all year. I’ve bet a combined eight units against them this season, winning all eight.

Unfortunately, we can’t fade both of them once again this week because they’re playing against each other. If I had to choose, I’d side with Baltimore. The Cowboys haven’t been great against scrambling quarterbacks, so they could struggle against Jackson. Also, Dallas has a long history of performing poorly against good teams. The Cowboys crush the crappy opponents, but can’t beat good ones. I’m not sure if the Ravens are good anymore, but maybe the Cowboys will think they are. I don’t know. Also, Dallas has to play on Thursday night, so that’s something, although not too much of a thing because the team is an underdog coming off an ugly loss.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Two major players were kept out of practice. Both CeeDee Lamb and Ronnie Stanley missed Wednesday’s practice. Lamb is the huge name, but Stanley being sidelined would be a huge blow to a Baltimore offensive line that is already in shambles.

SATURDAY NOTES: Neither CeeDee Lamb nor Ronnie Stanley was on the final injury report. In fact, both teams are relatively healthy, minus the pass rushers Dallas has on injured reserve. I’m 51-49 Baltimore right now.

PLAYER PROP: I like Lamar Jackson over 53.5 rushing yards. Going over rushing yards with mobile quarterbacks in big games is something I always like to do, and this qualifies as a big game for Jackson, as it’s the Tom Brady-announced key contest in the 4:25 window where Baltimore is trying to avoid an 0-3 start. The Cowboys have struggled versus mobile quarterbacks over the years. The best number is over 53.5 -110 at BetMGM.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still have no opinion on this game. I’ve seen many people say, “There’s no way the Ravens fall to 0-3!” Of course they can fall to 0-3 because they’re not a good team!

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money on the Ravens pushing this line to -1.5. The best line is Ravens -1.5 -104 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -1.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 58% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Lamar Jackson is 11-2 ATS as an underdog. ???

Mike McCarthy is 7-3 ATS after losing as a favorite as head coach of the Cowboys.

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.