2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Chiefs at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Walt Goes to Vegas 2024, Part 1: The Philadelphia International Airport.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs lost yet another skill player. Already down Marquise Brown and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City saw Isiah Pacheco suffer an injury that’ll cost him 6-8 weeks. Carson Steele and Samaje Perine will combine to take his job.

The Falcons can be beaten on the ground, as both Saquon Barkley and Najee Harris performed well against them in the first two weeks of the season. The Falcons lost top linebacker Nate Landman to injury, so they’ve struggled to stop rushing attacks as a consequence.

Atlanta is at least capable against the pass, particularly when it comes to generating pressure on the quarterback and covering the top outside receiver with A.J. Terrell. The Chiefs struggled to protect against the Bengals, so this is an area the Falcons can exploit. Terrell can also slow down Xavier Worthy, but Rashee Rice figures to compensate for that with his great play in the slot. The Falcons have a dreadful slot cornerback who won’t be able to deal with Rice.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins has one of the greatest dichotomies in the NFL when dealing with pressure and being kept clean. Cousins was woeful in Week 1, but thrived against the Eagles, who couldn’t place any pressure on the veteran quarterback.

There’s a better chance Cousins will see a good deal of pressure in this contest. The Chiefs have generated six sacks through two weeks and have generated a very high number of hurries. Chris Jones is a monster in the interior and cannot be stopped.

There’s an avenue for success for the Falcons, however, and that would be with the run. The Chiefs are much weaker versus the rush than the pass, and yet they’ve yet to see a stout ground attack thus far. They’ve faced a decrepit Derrick Henry and a pedestrian Zack Moss, so they’ll have their hands full with Bijan Robinson.

RECAP: I heard a great metaphor describing the Chiefs while listening to one of the millions of YouTube football videos following the Week 2 games. I can’t remember who said it, so apologies for the lack of attribution, but this person described Kansas City as a cat playing with its food during the early portion of the season. This was great because the Chiefs struggle to cover the spread during the beginning of the year because they like to experiment and don’t take the opposition all too seriously.

With that in mind, what’s the incentive for the Chiefs to go all out in this game? Sure, they’re on national TV, but that’s old hat for them. They know nothing about this NFC opponent, and they’re coming off two big victories over the Ravens and Bengals, so I don’t think we’ll see 100-percent effort from them.

The Falcons, meanwhile, looked like a great potential bet when they were losing to the Eagles. However, they prevailed at the last second and celebrated in the locker room as if they won the Super Bowl. This makes them just as unappealing, as does the lost value with this spread dropping from +4.5 on the advance line to +3.5. I’m going to side with the Chiefs, but because they tend to play with their food, I’m not going to bet them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have nothing to say from an injury perspective, and there hasn’t been any sharp money on either side. I don’t plan on making a bet on this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Outside of the players on injured reserve, no one in this game has an injury designation, which is a rarity, even in Week 3. The sharps bet the Falcons at +3.5.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to start with Carson Steele under 45.5 rushing yards. This seems like a high number for Steele against Atlanta’s ninth-ranked run defense. We don’t even know if Steele is going to be the primary back, or if he’s going to share the workload with one or more other backs. The best number is under 45.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Rashee Rice is the one over player we’ll be betting. Rice has been a monster through two games, and he has been given more room to work underneath with the opposition being distracted by Xavier Worthy. He’ll have a very easy matchup against Atlanta’s poor slot cornerback. The best number is over 75.5 -115 at BetMGM.

Speaking of Worthy, we’re going under 39.5 receiving yards with him. He had so much hype after the first game because he scored two touchdowns, but he touched the ball three times! Worthy has gotten just seven total targets through two games, so that doesn’t sound like someone who will be hitting the over, especially against A.J. Terrell. The best number is under 39.5 -110 at Bet Rivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

I also like Travis Kelce under 48.5 receiving yards. Kelce is coasting through the regular season once again, as he’s an older player who is distracted by his famous girlfriend. The best number is under 48.5 receiving yards -115 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

We’re going to parlay these four props. This $25 same-game parlay pays $217 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I may add a Kyle Pitts over prop bet before the game, and I may parlay that with the Drake London under because the Chiefs tend to double No. 1 receivers and keep tight ends open.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp money on the Falcons earlier in the week, but a bit of sharp action has come back on the Chiefs. I’m going to bet a unit on Kansas City, as I want to fade the Falcons coming off a win on a short week. I wouldn’t make this play at -3.5 though. The best line is -3 -115 at BetMGM and BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY II: Here’s another same-game parlay that’s only two legs. I’m going to bet Kyle Pitts over 40.5 receiving yards and Drake London under 62.5 receiving yards. There’s correlation here, as the Chiefs like to double team the best option, which they could deem to be London. If this happens, Pitts could have a big game. This $100 parlay pays $210 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Plenty of action on the Chiefs early, but it’s come close to a reasonable percentage.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 58% (177,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.