2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Giants at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin injuries kept me off the Browns last week. In fact, they swayed me to Jacksonville, which proved to be a huge mistake. Neither tackle played, yet the Browns still found a way to prevail, thanks to the incompetence of Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.

One of the two tackles will be needed in this contest because the thing the Giants do best is rush the passer, especially on the edge. They have Dexter Lawrence in the middle to deflect attention from Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, who would have a huge advantage versus backup tackles. They contributed to the Giants’ five-sack performance last week.

Deshaun Watson having time in the pocket would be the difference maker in this matchup because the Giants have horrendous cornerback play. Despite Jayden Daniels taking five sacks, Daniels completed nearly every pass he threw. The Giants could experience the same fate once again if they can’t pressure Watson.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I loved Malik Nabers’ outlook last week. I played him in every DFS lineup because of the great matchup and low pricing. The Redskins can’t pressure the quarterback, and thus their already-awful cornerbacks have less of a chance to cover anyone. Daniel Jones, who was awful in Week 1, was able to use the improved protection to constantly deliver the ball to Nabers. Unfortunately, Nabers cost us three units with his fourth-down drop at the end of the game.

Jones and Nabers won’t have the same success this week. The Browns are obviously much better at rushing the passer, thanks to Myles Garrett. Cleveland has seven sacks through two weeks compared to just two by Washington. Jones, as we know, is far worse when pressured heavily, so he could have a similar performance to the one he experienced in Week 1.

It’s difficult to imagine the Giants having any sort of success against Cleveland’s stellar defense. Devin Singletary had a solid performance last week, but he won’t be able to maintain that level of play against the Browns’ ferocious ground defense.

RECAP: I don’t know where I’m going with this game yet, and anyone who has been reading the picks page for the past two weeks knows exactly why. We just don’t know the status of Wills and Conklin. Even though the Giants are a poor team, having Wills or Conklin available – one will be good enough – is important because the Giants have dynamic edge rushers on the other side.

This would be a high number for the Browns to cover while missing both their tackles. I’d lean toward the Giants in that instance. Fading Watson with an injury-ravaged offensive line as a near-touchdown favorite seems like the right move.

If, however, one tackle returns, then I’ll be on the Browns, as they’re a far superior team compared to the crappy Giants. The problem is that we may not know this injury information until at least Friday, and perhaps not until 90 minutes prior to kickoff. Check back for more updates, or follow me @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jack Conklin practiced fully on Friday. I don’t need to tell you how huge this is for the Browns. We’ll have to see if Conklin suffers any sort of setback, but if he’s able to suit up, I’d have interest in betting on Cleveland.

SATURDAY NOTES: Uh oh. Jack Conklin was downgraded Friday to limited. He’s questionable, as is Jedrick Wills, who was limited all week. We’ll have to wait until kickoff to know what we’re doing with this game.

PLAYER PROP: I love Amari Cooper over 47.5 receiving yards. This is a very low number for a WR1. Granted, Cooper hasn’t even topped 20 receiving yards yet this season, but he has 17 total targets through two games. Cooper hasn’t done much because the Browns have been down their tackles, but Jack Conklin will be back this week to give Deshaun Watson more time in the pocket to find Cooper downfield. The best number is over 47.5 receiving yards -129 at Caesars. I’m also betting the alt over 80+ receiving yards, as Cooper had 80+ receiving yards in eight of his 15 games last year. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jedrick Wills is active, and so is Myles Garrett. However, we just don’t know how effective Garrett will be, given that he’s pretty banged up. I won’t be betting this game as a result. The sharps haven’t touched this either. I wouldn’t hate a Cleveland bet, and if you want to go that way, -6.5 -108 at DraftKings is the best number. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Browns -6.5.

Computer Model: Browns -10.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Public money … on the Giants?

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 56% (108,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Kevin Stefanski is 14-21 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Browns -6.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 82 degrees. Light wind.