2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Packers at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Will Levis may deplete my savings account by the time the season is finished. He has sabotaged a sure victory and a potential cover/push through two weeks with some bone-headed mistakes. He has truly been horrendous with his decision-making despite looking brilliant at times.

Perhaps the Titans can keep Levis from imploding once again because of their great matchup edge in this game. That would be Tony Pollard going up against Green Bay’s perennially poor ground defense. The Packers couldn’t do anything to stop Saquon Barkley in the opening week, and they’ll have similar issues against the Titans, who run block extremely well.

Levis also has a plus matchup in this contest if he can refrain from giving the ball away to the other team. The Packers have some serious holes in their secondary stemming from Jaire Alexander’s rapid regression, so Calvin Ridley will be able to do some damage.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Malik Willis prevailed last week, but really didn’t have to do very much. He connected on most of his passes, but threw the ball just 14 times. He had the advantage of leaning on a powerful running game, as the Packers rammed the ball down Indianapolis’ throat. Willis was hardly ever in third-and-long situations as a result.

Things will be much different in this game, as the Packers won’t have the same rushing edge they possessed versus the banged-up Colts. Tennessee is habitually stellar versus the run, and they have the personnel to maintain that status this year. They’ll do a much better job of limiting Josh Jacobs than Indianapolis did.

Willis will be asked to do much more in this contest, which will be Green Bay’s undoing. Willis not a good quarterback, and he’ll be tasked with throwing into a secondary comprised of two No. 1 cornerbacks. It’s also worth noting that the Titans are very familiar with Willis, having practiced against him for years.

RECAP: I bet five units on Willis last week. You might be wondering if I’ll be going back to the well. There will be a five-unit wager on this game, but it won’t be on Willis.

Backup quarterbacks have a great track record against non-elite defenses. Over the past several seasons, they’re 29-15 against the spread in such situations. Willis got the 29th cover last week, as Indianapolis’ banged-up stop unit didn’t quite have the edge to stop Green Bay’s offense despite Willis piloting it.

But what about backup quarterbacks against elite defenses? They struggle in those situations, and understandably so. That 29-15 ATS turns into 11-20 ATS, and that number is inflated by situations where the elite defenses were ravaged by injury. For example, Gardner Minshew covered against the Ravens last year, but Baltimore was missing half of its defense.

Willis didn’t have to do much last week besides hand the ball off when the center wasn’t puking on it. He’ll be asked to beat the Titans here, and that is unlikely, given how great Tennessee’s defense is. The Titans are 10th in defensive EPA and could be even higher after battling lesser competition.

Now, I know what you’re thinking: Isn’t Levis going to sabotage another five-unit bet for you? Probably. I’m prepared for it. But if this continues, I’ll at least be able to write a book called the Year of the Bad Beat, which I am already planning based on the preseason and the first two weeks of the season.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: “No Cookie” Jordan Love had a limited practice Wednesday, which is an interesting development. If he plays, I’ll still like the Titans because Love won’t be 100 percent upon rushing back from this injury. We’ll also likely get points, which is a plus!

SATURDAY NOTES: Jordan Love is listed as questionable after being limited all week. I have my doubts that he’ll play, but again, if he suits up, he won’t be 100 percent against this incredible defense.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The good news is that “No Cookie” Jordan Love is out. The bad news is that the sharps bet the Titans up to -3. I can’t find any viable -2.5 lines. I still love Tennessee at -3 though. The best line is -3 +100 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Titans -2.5.

Computer Model: Packers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

As expected, tons of public money on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 73% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Matt LaFleur is 50-35 ATS in the regular season.

Titans are 30-20 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Titans -1.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 90 degrees. Light wind.