2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Redskins at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Cincinnati, where tonight, the Washington Redskins take on the Cincinnati Reds. Guys, I have almost important news to tell you. When I saw Joe Burrow, I was in love. Not real love because he’s a Bengal and not a member of my Philadelphia Eagles, the greatest team to ever live on the planet even though Kirk Cousins cheated against them, but love as in admiration of his hairdo. Guys, when I was a young boy, I wanted to dye my hair blond like Eminem, but Mother said he produced satanic music. Now that Joe Burrow has copied Eminem, perhaps Mother will allow me to dye my hair that way. What do you think, guys? Will Mother allow me to get the Eminem hairdo like Joe Burrow, especially now that I’m a 73-year-old grown man?

Emmitt: Thanks, Kain. I very confusion again like I was a long time ago, so this deja view all over again. When I hear that Eminem making music, I say this gonna be a good commercial for the candy because the red guy and the tall yellow guy real funny, but people say that M&M a real person, so I ask themselfs how a couple of candy become a real person maybe because it like the guy who have the wood doll name Pocahontas who comed to real life but if he lie, his nose shrink.

Reilly: Emmitt, Pocahontas’ nose definitely did not shrink. She was painting all the colors of the wind. I know this because Mother let us watch movies in homeschool class one day, and she put on Pocahontas because something with real-life actors like Santa Clause or Draft Day would be too scary for me and give me nightmares.

Tollefson: Ah, the movies. That takes me back. Remember when you’d take a date to the movies, and you’d sit in the back and cut a hole in the popcorn so that your date would suck on your “hot dog?” And then, you’d chloroform her and lock her in your dungeon so you’d be able to force her to cook and clean naked for you? Those were the good old days.

Reilly: Tolly, why would you put a hot dog in your tub of popcorn? Everyone knows that hot dogs and popcorn don’t mix. Now that we got that settled, let’s go down to Charissa Thompson, who has another world leader with her.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. In preparation for this game, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase enjoyed each other in a human centipede. I’m joined here by Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He’s the latest foreign leader to join us to advocate for NFL games in his country ever since Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, how are you enjoying the pre-game atmosphere?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Plleeaasseee giiivee meeeee mooonneeyyyy. I nneeeeedd moooonnneeeyyyyy.

Charissa Thompson: Is this money to build a football stadium with real turf, so you can host a football game without players sliding around as if they were on ice skates?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Noooo I nneeeeed mooonneeey to buyy anootherrr hoooousseeee in Miiiammiii and moooore clooothess fooor wiiiffee. Plleeaasseee giiive meeee mooore moooooneeey.

Reilly: President Zelenskyy, I’m sorry to say this because the media told me to love Ukraine and respect your leadership, but when I need money from Mother, I do chores like cleaning the windows, dusting the shelves, and putting my toys away. I tried to mow the lawn once, but Mother said that was too dangerous for someone who is a blossoming flower like me. Maybe you should do stuff to earn money. What do you think, Camel Toe Harris? What can President Zelenskyy do to earn his money?

Kamala Harris: Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So, basically, that’s wrong, and it goes against everything that we stand for.

Reilly: That’s what you said last week, Camel Toe! Have you been listening to anything we’ve been saying, Camel Toe? Camel Toe? Camel Toe! I’m talking to you, Camel Toe!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, I need to discuss something mentioned earlier, which is Pocahontas, which is a great nickname I made up, frankly the best nickname anyone has ever made up, and I made it up for Elizabeth Warren, or Senator Pocahontas, as I call her, and I do so brilliantly if I might add, Pocahontas, the fake Indian senator, who pretends to be Indian so she can get benefits minorities get, but she’s not Indian at all, in fact I’m more Indian than her, and I’m not even Indian, but speaking of people who are not Indian, Kamala, or as she sometimes calls herself, Kuhmela, because she’s so fake that she doesn’t even know her name because she’s a total disgrace and a total fraud, Kuhmela used to say she’s Indian, so much so that the illegal immigrants from Haiti were eating her Pocahontas statue, that’s how Indian she claimed to be, but she’s not Indian anymore because she needs the black vote, so now she’s black, but if she’s elected – frankly, that’s ridiculous to say because she won’t be elected, but they could always cheat in the election, which is why we need to be too big to steal – if she’s elected, she’ll go back to being Indian and having Pocahontas statues, because she’s a total loser and a total disgrace.

Wolfley: DONALD, I HAVE FACT CHECKED YOU IN MY HEAD, AND EVERYTHING YOU HAVE SAID IS WRONG. SORRY, I MERGED WITH DAVID MUIR AFTER I HELD UP A MIRROR WITH THREE LIPS AND SUCKED HIS SOUL INTO IT.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! Will someone please convince Mother to let me dye my hair like Eminem and Joe Burrow!? New Daddy, can you convince Mother?

Jay Cutler: OK, I’ll tell her to buy you one of that guy’s CDs.

Reilly: New Daddy, no, I wasn’t talking ab- wait- yes, YES! I’m not allowed to have Eminem’s CDs or cassette tapes because Mother said it’s satanic music, but maybe you can convince her it’s not!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about has-been rappers, Kevin. You’ve already mentioned Eminem, Kevin. Let’s throw in MC Hammer, Kevin. What do you think about Vanilla Ice, Kevin? Can I get your take on Fat Joe, Kevin? Care to share your thoughts on Timbaland, Kevin? How about Silkk the Shocker, Kevin? We can touch on Kris Kross, Kevin. Let’s segue to Jay-Z, Kevin. He’s married to Beyonce, Kevin, and you’ll never marry anyone, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I WILL MARRY SOMEONE AFTER I IMPRESS HER WITH MY EMINEM AND JOE BURROW HAIRDO! We’ll be back after this!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I was skeptical that the Bengals could keep pace with the Chiefs because I was worried about Joe Burrow’s wrist. This injury hindered him in the opener, so if it persisted, he wouldn’t be able to engage in a shootout with Kansas City.

Burrow, however, proved that he is healthy with a brilliant performance this past Sunday. Unless this was a fluke, Burrow will be able to light up the Redskins. Washington has the worst secondary in the NFL, as it allowed Daniel Jones to perform on a high level last week. Burrow, with an improving Ja’Marr Chase and a potentially available Tee Higgins, will be able to torch this horrible defensive backfield.

The Redskins should do well against the run, but it’s not like their defensive front will produce much pressure on Burrow. They couldn’t even get to Jones, so Burrow will have all the time he needs to attack the Redskins.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels had a terrific rushing performance last week. He bewildered the Giants linebackers en route to a victory. The stat box also shows that he completed a high percentage of his passes, so he was great all around, right?

Well, Daniels thrived for a rookie, but there were some flaws. Daniels threw mostly checkdowns and took plenty of sacks. His exterior protection on the offensive line is rather poor, which bodes poorly in this matchup because of the talent the Bengals have on the edge.

The Redskins have an advantage on this side of the ball, and that would be the ground attack. Cincinnati’s rush defense has struggled in the wake of D.J. Reader’s departure. Brian Robinson could do well, but that would require the Bengals not jumping out to a huge lead and eliminating Washington’s running game.

RECAP: I was hoping the Bengals wouldn’t look good last week so we’d get a good number with them in this contest. The advance spread on this game was -7, but it’s crossed that key number and gone to -7.5 because the Bengals nearly defeated the Chiefs. This loss of value is a bummer because a Cincinnati blowout loss to Kansas City may have dropped this spread to -6.5 or even -6.

I like the Bengals to rebound off their 0-2 start because they’ll be desperate. They also have a great matchup here with their receivers going up against Washington’s horrible cornerbacks, while their edge rush should have a field day versus Washington’s poor tackles. Burrow also has a great track record bouncing back off a loss. However, we’re not getting any key numbers, which makes it more likely that the Redskins will be able to achieve a back-door cover. I am worried enough about that to stay off this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no injury report for this game yet either. There hasn’t been any sharp money on either side yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tee Higgins has been limited both days in practice. The Redskins will be hoping he isn’t available because their miserable secondary can’t even contain Ja’Marr Chase by himself.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Tee Higgins is not on the injury report, which is obviously significant, especially against Washington’s woeful secondary.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: The Bengals are -7 -108 at Bookmaker. If you like them, I’d lock them in right now. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Ja’Marr Chase has disappointed through two weeks, but this will be his best matchup of the year. We’re getting a relatively low number because of what transpired in Weeks 1 and 2, but Chase should go off tonight. The best number is over 79.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Chiefs double teamed Chase, allowing Mike Gesicki to go nuts. Things will go back to normal tonight. I’m expecting some major regression from Gesicki, especially with Tee Higgins back in the lineup. Plus, the Redskins have played tight ends well thus far. The best number is under 30.5 receiving yards -125 at BetMGM.

The Bengals struggle against the run, so I like Brian Robinson to go over his rushing yards. Cincinnati will be down several defensive tackles tonight, while Washington’s interior blocking is excellent. The best number is over 53.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Conversely, Zack Moss could struggle. The Redskins are much better against the run than the pass, and Moss isn’t very good anyway. The best number is under 48.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel.

I’m parlaying all four together. This $25 parlay pays $224.73 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is all over the Bengals, but the sharps haven’t touched this game. If you want to bet the Bengals, you can get -7 -116 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Bengals will desperate to avoid an 0-3 start, but they could be a bit flat after blowing the Kansas City game.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -7.

Computer Model: Bengals -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

The public loves the Bengals again.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 77% (237,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 36-19 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-5 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 15-6 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Bengals -7.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 77 degrees. Light wind.